Friday Discussion/Thoughts

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Fri 6/22</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">901</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Philadelphia Phillies
J. Moyer</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -203 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">902</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">St Louis Cardinals
AN. Reyes</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +185 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -109 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">903</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago Cubs
C. Zambrano</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +157 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8.5 -115 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 01:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">904</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -167 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8.5 +105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">905</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
B. Bonser</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -191 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -113 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">906</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Florida Marlins
S. Olsen</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +178 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +103 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">907</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -110 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-174 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +100 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">908</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Washington Nationals
M. Bowie</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 +100 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+166 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -110 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">909</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
J. Hirsh</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -183 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">910</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
J. Towers</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +173 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -105 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">911</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
D. Lowe</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +113 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-144 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +103 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">912</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Tampa Bay Devil Rays
A. Sonnanstine</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -123 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -113 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">913</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
L. Dinardo</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -159 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -110 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">914</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Mets
T. Glavine</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-144 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +100 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">915</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
K. Rogers</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+141 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +100 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">916</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
J. Smoltz</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +139 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -110 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">917</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
J. De La Rosa</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -131 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+161 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 +106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">918</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee Brewers
J. Suppan</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-169 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -116 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">919</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
W. Williams</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -184 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10.5 -124 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">920</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
K. Millwood</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +174 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-114 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10.5 +114 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">921</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Baltimore Orioles
D. Cabrera</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -134 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+172 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 -101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 06:40 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">922</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
B. Webb</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +124 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-180 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -109 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">923</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
D. Matsuzaka</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +124 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-133 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 7.5 +105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">924</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
G. Maddux</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -134 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+125 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 7.5 -115 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">925</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -217 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+101 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 +100 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">926</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
C. Baek</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +197 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -110 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">927</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Pittsburgh Pirates
Z. Duke</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -123 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+171 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9.5 -103 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">928</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">LAA Angels
J. Saunders</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +113 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-179 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9.5 -107 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Fri 6/22</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">929</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
K. Igawa</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +139 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-117 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -105 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:15 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">930</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
M. Cain</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -149 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+109 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 -105 </td></tr></tbody></table>

For anyone who wants to get an early start to tomorrow...
Please post your thoughts, information, trends, anything you think will be helpful for the rest of the Forum here.

I feel like the past couple of days this has really lead to some great discussions and been very profittable for those who participated.
 
Leans:

Phillies -104: Reyes has struggled mightily lately and while Moyer has not been amazing, he has been fairly good and had a very good outing against Detroit last time out. Just feel like you are getting the better team and the better pitcher at even odds.

Colorado +106/Over 9.5: The Rockies are playing very well and I am a Hirsh fan. I also like the over here as both teams are hitting very well.

Detroit at +141 is tempting no matter what the matchup is.
 
HEy renew.. love ur plays and analysis... and i love these discussion forms cause they really help with my game... anways..

i like the under in the mets/a's glavine back at home agaisnt a below avg offense, and with the mets bats struggling... it looks like a 4-2 game to met

i kinda like Dice K at that price even though boston bats dont hit for me much...
thats all for now off the top of my head
 
Giants and Yankees are both on losing streaks and feeling bad about themselves. Matt Cain has been gettting NO run support and the Giants have never the seen Yankee pitcher. If the umpire is favorable it might be a good under 9 game?
 
Early wind estimates for SF tomm. has it blowin straight out at 18 mph
Who knows ?? The weather can change in a heartbeat.
 
Zambrano and Buehrle are both in good form
Status of Lee and Thome ?
Umpire and winds ?
 
Umpires will have to wait til tomorrow, all new series. around 30 minutes before gametime but Shortline if he appears is very good @ stalking the umps and can give you a general idea of who will be behind the plate tomorrow.

I'll be back later to give my thoughts but some nice looking stuff for tomorrow.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Leans:

Phillies -104: Reyes has struggled mightily lately and while Moyer has not been amazing, he has been fairly good and had a very good outing against Detroit last time out. Just feel like you are getting the better team and the better pitcher at even odds.

Colorado +106/Over 9.5: The Rockies are playing very well and I am a Hirsh fan. I also like the over here as both teams are hitting very well.

Detroit at +141 is tempting no matter what the matchup is.
Click to expand...

Phillies already -112

Rockies are playing very well, nice dog and Towers should give up plenty. Rockies could almost get that over by themselves tomorrow.

Detriot - True, Kenny Rogers 1st game back though, no idea how he will pitch, but I don't blame you for that.
 
El Mago said:
HEy renew.. love ur plays and analysis... and i love these discussion forms cause they really help with my game... anways..

i like the under in the mets/a's glavine back at home agaisnt a below avg offense, and with the mets bats struggling... it looks like a 4-2 game to met

i kinda like Dice K at that price even though boston bats dont hit for me much...
thats all for now off the top of my head
Click to expand...

no problem, just to help out the forum.

Under might not be a bad play, not too sure about it though, Glavine has had problems at home. I don't know about his last couple of games but I've taken note of that this year he has given up more runs at home than on the road. I kind of like the A's tomorrow and I'm sure people will chase the Mets.

Dice K, thats a pretty cheap price for him. might be a nice spot once again as SD continues to face teams that can hit. Wells and Maddux can be hit so I agree.
 
Veteran Observer said:
Giants and Yankees are both on losing streaks and feeling bad about themselves. Matt Cain has been gettting NO run support and the Giants have never the seen Yankee pitcher. If the umpire is favorable it might be a good under 9 game?
Click to expand...

Igawa... he was horrid this year. I can't see him coming back and dominating. 9 seems a little high but the SF bullpen is nothing special and Cain hasn't pitched all that well this season. total seems a little risky as some might take the angle of "Yankees will want the win after being swept". I think if people take the Yanks and the line rises SF is the way to go on this game.
 
imgn said:
Zambrano and Buehrle are both in good form
Status of Lee and Thome ?
Umpire and winds ?
Click to expand...

under at a glance. I'd have to look into this more. Early game, I'm sure it'll get a lot of action because it'll be the only game on and its Cubs/White Sox. Well have to research it but risky play anything you do. both bullpens are horrible, too much can happen.
 
reNew Orleans said:
under at a glance. I'd have to look into this more. Early game, I'm sure it'll get a lot of action because it'll be the only game on and its Cubs/White Sox. Well have to research it but risky play anything you do. both bullpens are horrible, too much can happen.
Click to expand...

With the way those bullpens are, especially with the White Sox, I lean OVER because all it takes is 4-3 game going into the 8th inning, and that's still 2 full innings to hit against those pens.
 
Totally agree the pens could mess up an under play in Chitown
Would rarely endorse a totals play w/o first checking weather,
ump,then lineup with the uncertainy involved with key players
status ( reason for ? in above post ). Keep in mind though that
we're dealing with a pair of workhorses here.

Buehrle....went 8 innings last 2 games and 3 out of the last 4
...3 bb/ 16 k in last 4 and an excellent 58/33 ground ball ratio L5

Zambrano...2.2 era last 5 with 12bb/31k and averaging close to
8 innings per start last 3

Not on anything yet....just throwin out some numbers and taking a
long look at the under in Washington. Problem is overs are smokin hot
 
probably not going to much effort into capping these games, no umps makes it a lot harder.

just probably pick out a few dogs that are appealing: A's, Rockies, Twins, Reds, Giants. I'll work my way from there
 
I really just started going thru the card. Great discussion and stats here guys, your efforts should be applauded. I barely have enough time to post plays, let alone discuss them as I say "I Do" in a couple weeks. But I will try and contribute when I can.

First one on my list is the Cards/Phillies. Eckstein and Edmonds are on the DL. That hurts, as they were a catalyst for their short lived offensive resurgence last weekend. If they were in the lineup, I would have already been down on the cards at plus money against the lefty Moyer. Even with the human gas can Reyes on the mound. Dave Duncan says Anthony's trouble is he is keeping his fastball up, which to a free swinging team like the Phillies is a cause for alarm. He is trying to work on getting it lower, but his confidence is not there it seems. Jeff Weaver broke his winless streak the other day, and I feel Reyes will soon, but not with a depleated linup, and not against a team that can, at times, put em up in bunches. All surface variables point to a Philly win, and I am close to making it a play.

Cubs/W. Sox: Initial lean to the under here, based on the pitchers. But the Sox seem to be a little healthier and with Zambrano being such an emotional pitcher, I dunno how he will react in a cross town rivalry matchup. Last year I would have taken Zambrano with no hesitation, but today, I am passing.

Nats/Injuns: Nats have won the last 5 or so that bowie has started. I am more apt to go against Carmona on the road, but he has pitched fantastically this year, home or away. Would need more like 180 or so to be on the nats.

Something tells me to take Florida, and I have no statistical backing for this assumption.

Letdown for the Rockies? Maybe, but they do have a hittable pitcher to keep them out of that role. Could Travel be a concern? Maybe , but I don't really want to get involved in a post Yankee Sweep line movement.

Oakland/mets Dinardo looked human last time out. Mets too hit or miss for me to get a read on them

The Dodgers winning in the latter part of the game helps me on this play. I like Sonnanstine here. If I am going against Lowe, I want it to be on the road against a team that can score lots of runs. Tampa can do that, but thier Pen gives up a lot as well, altho they looked great for Edwin "Fucking" Jackson against the D'Backs (sorry, A little bitter) Considering a 1st 5 on Tampa here. Rays off a days rest, dodgers flying into Tampa as I type, I guess.

Detroit as that big of a dog against anyone is worth a look. Unfortunately they get an older pitcher making his first start of the year. I like Kenny, but I want to see what he has left in the tank before I go putting my cash near him.

That is as far as I have made it. talk to you all tomorrow
 
I agree, Slim. Cards are still conceding a lot of runs (11 of their last 13 opponents have scored 5+ runs), they simply found some offense to offset that fact. But did so against mainly similarly pathetic teams (12 games vs HOU, CIN, KAN for 5.08 runs/game. Oakland got done after a longish winning streak, there 28 runs in 3 games).

Cards havent won 3 straight (3 game) series this season, Philly hasnt lost 3 straight (3 game) series this season since their very 1st 3 series of the season. Each has respectively won & lost their last 2 3-game series.

I'll dig deeper but, after playing the high flying Detroit & Cleveland squads, surely Philly has to notice the step down that'll come playing the cards. What didnt come easy against those former teams will surely be noticeably easier against STL (PHI was 9-3 before facing 2 of the ALs (therefore the league's) best 4 teams)

Philly is 12-7 on the road vs RHP, St.Louis is 2-6 at home vs LHP
 
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and Philly would follow that trend scoring 6,4,1,9,6 in their last 5 (earliest to most recent) for an average of 5.2. Expand that to 5.7 over thier last 10, vs KC, CWS, Det, Cle.

I am so very close to playing the Phillies. Holding me back is the fact that Reyes will get a win soon, I am pretty sure it won't be here tho. But usually when it seems the least likely, it most likely happens.
 
Have no problem with patient avoidence in Detroit-Atlanta. Personally, I have locked in .5 a unit ml and will bet another .5 unit first 5 on Detroit. Call it the problem solver mentality because having spent much time I did decide it was bettable. Looked at Rogers preparation which was average. The team is doing fine so why is he electing to play today. This is a man who is 14-6 last 20 on the road. He has had real experience in the national league but has been dominant most recently in the American. My conclusion was he is playing today because he thinks he can win. Minor features are Atlanta 4-7 last 11 vs lefties at home. Doing batter vs pitcher the at bats for Atlanta were a very old 33 to 108 for Detroit. Casey ,Polanco and Sheffield have all had 14 or more at bats and are hitting for high averages this season This is why part of the bet is first half. Atlanta probably does have the better pen although changes seem to be happening there and if Smoltz is dominant first 5 while Rogers struggles maybe this is not so good anyway so bet some where the pens do not matter but the hitting and experience of the batters does. I have reviewed all of Smoltz's games this year and seen reason to devalue most of them. For the most part his opponents have been bad or operating with big disadvantages. His win in Boston was vs a fairly good hitting team but they started a child that the team had no involvement with. Beating Glavine with Atlanta involved different advantages that do not obtain here. On review Hudson and Carlyle actually inpress me more. We could easily toss trends and angles back and forth for hours here. To me the core facts are Detroit will play hard for Rogers and are the better team and by far the better hitting team and they are a team that likes to inpose its will and wins in interleague and Atlanta is not.
 
2 things to note about the 2 lefty SPs coming back tonight...

Rogers is rushing back it seems. He didn't fair well at all...against single A bats.

Igawa was successful in the minors...as they say he got his changeup back, which was supposedly his out pitch in Japan.

for what it's worth...
but i think the braves are favored so highly for that very reason. well that and the tiger pen. as for the other game...giants just don't score &/or win w/ cain throwing. i've backed him jsut about every start, all to no avail. even when he's throwing a shutout...he can't last...and the pen implodes.
 
Rogers 2 starts were on June 10 triple A 3.2 innings no runs 3 hits and June 15 single A 3 runs one earned and 7 hits over 5 innings at single A. The question is what it means. I believe since the result was meaningless he was experimenting, creating situations to get out of. Going back to preseason baseball trying to guess how they pitch in the regular season from preseason results is almost inpossible but I repeat what I said once before ultimately I am convinced Rogers knows himself pretty well and I do not see him facing Smoltz today if he does not actually think he is ready. I could easily be dead wrong because this is not so much a value bet on either side situation ( Detroit actually has not been a winning dog.) Its just a read the situation kind of bet where a team that has been somewhat soft vs lefties is facing a good returning left hander and a superior team. I actually think the best argument for Atlanta is the first game off a double shutout situation. I just do not think that is good enough. All things considered its easy to pass this but any time you pass up the better team put in the dog role its a very suspect action long term.
 
weird...i read some different stats in regards to the single a game. anyways, i don't see a good side to this game...considering the line.

too hgh a price to take the braves, considering the tiger bats. and despite the plus odds...can't back kenny on a pitch count, in his 1st start back from the DL, with that tiger pen to back him up.

thus, the over9...
 
ReNew, I answered you in the Thursday In game thread, check it out when you have time. :cheers: :shake:
 
I think Smoltz is worth the price, THe books know that people are gonna pound the tigers as a Dog, and smoltz has been spot on in his last few starts, he knows how to pitch, and if he has control he is dangerous, I think he quiets the tigers bats, and the Braves beat up on Kenny on his first start back, plus Kenny has to bat, I think Smoltz has the advantage there.
 
Satyr said:
ReNew, I answered you in the Thursday In game thread, check it out when you have time. :cheers: :shake:
Click to expand...

Just checked it out, perhaps it just is the MLB.

You have stated you just starting following it a few years ago for one thing, while with NBA you have followed it your whole life, played the game, etc. Also NBA you limited your bets more, various factors, one thing I am thinking about is you are trying to beat a spread, so you knowingly have to be more selective. Baseball you are betting on just the ML (unless you do RL of course). So you will probably be more tempted to bet something just on the basis it's a winner and not a spread. I dont know.

I still think that slowing it down a bit is the best solution here or just taking a break. This is such a grind and yes you did what most of us would do and that's to keep on capping, even through the worst and it's just unreal what has happened to you. Perhaps just focus on a couple of teams, maybe a division or two when interleague play is over and just do that, much like everyone here in college football focuses on a conference or two. I am no expert though, you easily have more experience than I do in betting. I have just been an avid sports fan and still learning in my first year of gambling.
 
Expect to bet numerous games today. Have added Minn plus 1 cent. No biggie for sure but see Olsen with 4 bad starts last 5. See Florida 3-7 last 10 at home. See Boof 7-3 last 10 with 2 of the losses at Anaheim and vs the on fire Brewers and see Minn having won 5 straight vs lefties and 6-2 with a day off. More generally like going against winning road dogs first game back in fav role. GL
 
I only like the Nats so far...rather big home dogs against Carmona who sucks at night (the guy has like 1.58 day ERA compared to 5+ night ERA), the Nats score for Bowie, ok they were thumped by the Tigers and the Indians are the better team here, but I am willing to take a shot at these odds.

Any thoughts?
 
more leans: Philly with Moyer...I don't like these Cards and their game despite the fact they actually sparked their offense a bit in recent weeks, the Phillies should rebound following a series against one of the toughest AL lineups, and at AL ballpark...

Other leans:
Toronto-Colorado over 9.5 (strong lean)
San Diego (Maddux)
 
backing Washington over the long run, youll come out on top. why not? I would play it but trying to limit my plays.

I do like the Phils a lot, one of my plays

I would have to lean your way with Toronto/Colorado over although, but better to wait for ump info to confirm.

i actually would go against SD though, facing AL teams is different for a team like the Padres (atleast thats how I see it). They are better hitting teams and Dice-K has settled down a bit in recent weeks even though he hasn't been getting a W.
 
Actually looking at Toronto -1 and San Diego ML now...probably promote one or both of them to plays...
 
ReNew, Dice K remains overpriced, that's the whole philosophy behind my SD bet... Ok these guys lost a couple of games but they're at home now, Boston with no DH, and Maddux is an old wolf.

I am considering him at plus money at home against an on and off Red Sox team.

:shake:
 
Satyr said:
ReNew, Dice K remains overpriced, that's the whole philosophy behind my SD bet... Ok these guys lost a couple of games but they're at home now, Boston with no DH, and Maddux is an old wolf.

I am considering him at plus money at home against an on and off Red Sox team.

:shake:
Click to expand...

They were at home just last series against Baltimore. yea Dice-K is overpriced still, I guess I just wouldn't touch it.
 
reNew Orleans said:
Why toronto?
Click to expand...

Several reasons. Ok they lost last night's game. But I'm pretty sure they were on their way to win it, before Janssen got in. This guy let in 4 or 5 ERs and recorded NO OUTS.

Basically destroyed the game for them. Look at them lately, they feasted off the Dodgers the day before, and actually had a solid game last night going into the 8th inning.

Their pitching has improved, Towers isn't included in that statement though, but if he's going to pitch a solid game I'm thinking at home and against a team that could be up for a possible letdown.



The Rockies just swept the Yankees and are in a home-road switch, traveling to an AL ballpark.

Hirsh has been hot for 2 games then fell apart last time out. The Rockies are hitting I'm aware, I just don't think they will carry the momentum from the Yankee series, a lot of the teams tend to regress a bit after winning the series from the Yankees, let alone sweeping them. And we're talking a mediocre NL side, despite the fact they have a better record than Atlanta at the moment, I still don't think their pitching and defense is good enough to call themselves a strong NL team.

They had their run, excellent run, but now I do tend to think Jays here.


It would look way more obvious had the Jays managed to cling on to a win last night, now we're looking at a contradicting situation. Well to me the fundamentals are on the Jays side, that will all mean squat if Holliday launches a 3-run homer in the 2nd. So I do like both the over and the Jays here, I think their offense steps up today after being quite limited last night by Billingsley and Hendrickson mostly.


Anyways, it would be wiser to fade me than to tail me. :36_11_6:
 
reNew Orleans said:
They were at home just last series against Baltimore. yea Dice-K is overpriced still, I guess I just wouldn't touch it.
Click to expand...

Baltimore is in a weird situation, they just fired their manager and were coming into that one losing what, 9 in a row?

You have to admit, they did have to step up somewhere, and they did. That's why they're one of my leans today, even if it is against Webb, Cabrera isn't a gas can, he just isn't to be trusted as big chalk, but I do like him at this spot.

Well that's just me :D.
 
I see where you are coming from, but it seems like all over Covers I've seen multiple "POD" or "locks" on Toronto, lol.

Toronto is too hit and miss on offense, that is one reason I don't like backing them, and yesterday it showed and then their bullpen topped it off.
 
I do think a nice RL to look at is the Angels vs Duke
Saunders would be in any other starting rotation in the league.

over 9 in MIL/KC as well.
 
Whatup guys, great discussion. Have to coach a game 2night so I have to get the majority of my capping now as I just got home. Quick thoughts

Zambrano pitches better on the road but does this game really count as a road game? He has been very good his last 5 games. Just don't know if I can pull the trigger here though. This game really is a PK

Twins - Just took 2/3 from the Mutts and winners of 7 of last 10 games..I like Boof although he has been anywhere from bad to ok in his last 3 starts, has a 1.80whip and is 1-2 but the numbers are really hurting from the beatdown the Angels put on him 3 starts ago. Twins still 9-5 when he takes the mound. Flor actually plays worse at home and they play terrible defense. Twins play solid baseball and have a better bullpen and love interleague play where they are 23-7 last 30.

Reds - I like Harang, he is a strong arm who works late into ball games, Reds are 10-5 when he pitches. The downside is that the Reds can't hit LHP worth a shit and the bullpen blows.

RSox - I simply don't like the Padre offense 1 bit and think they are a weak team there. I don't like them to bounce back after dropping 2 games to Baltimore and have a -135 limit here with the RSox. Bullpens cancel each other out for sure, hate not having a DH for the Sox. Dice K last 3 starts have been pretty dominant but Maddux has been solid as well.

Yanks - I thought the Giants side might be where I lean but I have to go over the local newspaper here first and see what they are saying about our 40million dollar lose Igawa. This from Covers:

"I want to see comfort," Yankees manager Joe Torre told the New York Daily News, worried he’ll see the April version of Igawa on the mound again tonight. "I want to see him in a good rhythm, a good tempo, things like that."
<O:p</O:p<O:p</O:p
Torre might be comforted by the numbers from Igawa’s last three starts in the minors: an ERA of 1.80 while allowing only 15 hits and striking out 21 batters in his 20 innings.<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
<O:pGiants are a bad bad team but Cain is a solid pitcher. </O:p

<O:p</O:p
<O:pAstros Over 11 - lol, hell of a total here but two bad pitchers and two offenses that can hit in a hitters park. Each team should get 4-5 runs off the starting pitching here and Texas already beat on Woody this yr. Astros offense is red hot right now.</O:p
<O:p
 
WHo has da better lineup, gimmee the winner fellas

<table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background-color: rgb(85, 85, 85);"><td colspan="3" align="center">Today's Lineups</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead"> <td width="10%">NO.</td> <td width="45%">CHICAGO</td> <td width="45%">CHICAGO</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>1.</td> <td>A. Soriano, LF</td> <td>D. Erstad, CF</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>2.</td> <td>M. Fontenot, 2B</td> <td>T. Iguchi, 2B</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>3.</td> <td>D. Lee, 1B</td> <td>J. Thome, DH</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>4.</td> <td>A. Ramirez, DH</td> <td>P. Konerko, 1B</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>5.</td> <td>M. DeRosa, 3B</td> <td>A. Pierzynski, C</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>6.</td> <td>R. Bowen, C</td> <td>J. Dye, RF</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>7.</td> <td>A. Pagan, RF</td> <td>R. Mackowiak, LF</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>8.</td> <td>F. Pie, CF</td> <td>J. Fields, 3B</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow"> <td>9.</td> <td>C. Izturis, SS</td> <td>J. Uribe, SS</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Also want to add, almost feel like I have to play Angels RL here. Pirates can't score in 2 games and 20straight innings... Saunders is good, Duke sucks and he sucks even more on the road. Angels at home. Angels bullpen is better.. Angels are killing LHP.
 
Washington is possible but a litttle concerned about personal bias since I like the team. If I play will not post it. Toronto? They do not do well after 12-1 variety wins so yesterday no real surprise. Today would expect this is Towers best shot at a win but not seeing much reason for involvement.
 
I will take several plays tonight, lower stakes though.

Washington (Bowie) (2.57 @Pinnacle) 3 units (as explained above)
San Diego (Maddux) (2.23 @Pinnacle) 2 units


I'm skipping Philly and Toronto, but seriously considering Baltimore for a unit or two.

GL tonight.
 
Satyr said:
I will take several plays tonight, lower stakes though.

Washington (Bowie) (2.57 @Pinnacle) 3 units (as explained above)
San Diego (Maddux) (2.23 @Pinnacle) 2 units


I'm skipping Philly and Toronto, but seriously considering Baltimore for a unit or two.

GL tonight.
Click to expand...

I do like the value on Wash tonight.
 
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