Friday discussion and plays

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
So far San Jose catching my attention. I know it's a square play, a team winning 10 straight against a team that is 1-7-2 in last 10, lost 4 straight, but I honestly think the Blues are done for the season.

This:

Code:
Feb 21	@LA	 Lost 1-5	28-23-9	Dan Cloutier	Manny Legace	14,132
Feb 22	@ANA	Lost 1-2 (OT)	28-23-10	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	Manny Legace	17,174
Feb 24	@PHO	Lost 0-2	28-24-10	Ilya Bryzgalov	Manny Legace	14,845
Feb 26	DAL	Lost 1-3	28-25-10	Marty Turco	Manny Legace	19,150
Feb 28	PHO	Lost 1-2	28-26-10	Ilya Bryzgalov	Manny Legace	17,867
Mar 1	SJ	Lost 0-2	28-27-10	Brian Boucher	Manny Legace	19,150
Mar 4	LA	Won 3-2	29-27-10	Manny Legace	Erik Ersberg	14,973
Mar 5	@DET	Lost 1-4	29-28-10	Dominik Hasek	Manny Legace	18,064
Mar 8	@VAN	Lost 2-4	29-29-10	Roberto Luongo	Manny Legace	18,630
Mar 10	@CGY	Lost 3-7	29-30-10	Miikka Kiprusoff	Hannu Toivonen	19,289
Mar 11	@EDM	Lost 3-4 (OT)	29-30-11	Mathieu Garon	Manny Legace	16,839

does not look good. Notice that they lost by a multi-goal margin 7 times since February 21st.

The Sharks won 4 straight by 1, including one in OT and one in a shootout. But they're home now, had a three day rest (even though they're no good on 3 days or more rest this season, only 2-8, but given the fact they had a huge road trip not long ago this may have come as a small refreshment for them).

The Sharks are 8-2 in last 10 against St Louis. 5 of those 8 wins were by 2 or more goals.


Want more?

* STL are 7-22 in their last 29 overall.
* STL are 35-84 in their last 119 road games.
* Under is 7-3 in STL last 10 overall.

San Jose:

* SJ are 10-1 in their last 11 overall.
* SJ are 24-9 in their last 33 games following a win.
* SJ are 39-15 in their last 54 vs. Central.

Head to Head:

* STL are 3-15 in the last 18 meetings.
* STL are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in San Jose.


Need more?

  • Of the Sharks' 10 straight wins, seven were in regulation, two were in a shootout and one was in overtime.
  • The Sharks are out-scoring their opponents 31-17 during the stretch, allowing more than two goals in a game only once (6-4 W vs. Montreal on 3/3/08).
  • The Sharks are out-shooting their opponents 32.5 – 23.2 during the stretch. In fact, the Sharks have out-shot their opponent by 10 or more in six of the games. During the ten games, they have out-shot the opponent nine times and tied the opponent once (22-22, at Detroit on 2/29/08).
  • The Sharks have scored the game’s first goal eight times during the stretch. Jonathan Cheechoo has done it three times.
  • The Sharks are far from safe as far as divisional title is concerned, despite last night's Stars' loss.


Just considering it for now, but I think 2.20 is enough for me to pull the trigger on.



Other leans: Columbus' first game with Nash as a captain. As I said Chicago is the team I'll be fading, if I touch them at all. Columbus pays 1.84 on the ML. People are actually backing Chicago more here. My question is: why?

The Canes are dogged again, this time in Buffalo. The Sabres are desperate but will that be enough? Last time I checked they were desperate in their last 4 as well, lost all of them. 2 wins in last 10. Why would I play the Sabres again? Anyone? Because they need it more? Not enough for me.

Florida, winners of 5 straight, against NY Rangers, 8-0-2 in last 10. Interesting. No bet.

I will probably get slated for this but here it goes. I'm leaning Atlanta ML here for a small play. The price is ludacris. 3.27 for a team that just raced back from a 0-3 deficit to win the game 6-4? This is still an NHL team you know. These guys are still going to show resilience. The Caps are the better team right now but the price not only shows it, but exceeds it big time. Last time I checked Atlanta had 70 points, Washington had 74. 1.40 - 3.27? Seriously? Also, don't forget the Thrashers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and 5-2 in last 7 in Washington.

The way I see it, they could either fall right back down after a win over former Atlanta franchise, or...they could use that momentum and win another one. If I take the gamble here, I'd like to be on the good side of the payout, and that's Atlanta.



Please share your thoughts. :popcorn:
 
Buffalo's defense is seriously, seriously hurting. I know Buffalo owns them in a way but this is a game Im gonna think about. Also gonna think about NY-Florida. Ill just make my morning tea first :)
 
Washington looks like easy money but the price is awful and look what happened to Nashville, Boston and Calgary last night. Although Im least surprised of Boston, this team appears in trouble.
 
Does this mean we are getting back on our usual routine where we don't touch the same games? :D Any thoughts on the SJ and ATL games?

EDIT: just seen your Washington post.
 
Does this mean we are getting back on our usual routine where we don't touch the same games? :D Any thoughts on the SJ and ATL games?

EDIT: just seen your Washington post.

I try to stay away from the western conference teams if I can help it Satyr. I see them a lot less than the east ones, except for canadian teams like Calgary.
 
I would not play Buffalo vs any team currently holding a playoff spot for the rest of this season, venue irrelevant. They're 0-8 their last 8 such games. They aren't making the playoffs.
 
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Definitely agree that Carolina is the play, plus Carolina has Ottawa on deck Sunday, a game they'll likely lose.
 
BC, my point in the initial post was that I leaned Carolina, sorry if I wasn't clear enough. Leans so far: Sharks -1,5, Canes, Atlanta.

Probably scratching one or two, Sharks are a definite play at this point.
 
I should be clearer, I should say Carolina is probably the play. Im just weary after last night. I know Buffalo is banged up and they played the Rangers with basically 4 defensemen (even 3 defensemen for some of the game) and the Rangers still didnt beat them (a shootout win is not a real win in my mind).
 
the Rangers still didnt beat them (a shootout win is not a real win in my mind).

catfood, the problem is Miller sucks so much in shootouts (Buf 1-9 their last 10) that its almost an automatic win for the other team if they get Buffalo into a SO situation. So at worst Carolina doesnt have to win in reg. or OT to deliver someone their money - at worst they only have to tie.

All that said, I won't play the Canes, since I would like to see Buffy win with a B2B in Toronto the next night. I'd automatically play the Leafs (at halfway decent odds) if Buffy somehow managed a win here.
 
All that said, I won't play the Canes, since I would like to see Buffy win with a B2B in Toronto the next night. I'd automatically play the Leafs (at halfway decent odds) if Buffy somehow managed a win here.

I was thinking the same thing BC. Even if Sundin doesnt go...I think Ill take the day off, or Ill maybe tail a total or something.
 
Anyone have an opinion on the CBJ-CHI total, over 5.5 is plus money and 4 of the 5 games between these 2 have gone over that total.
 
i wish i were @ home where my spread sheets were, but when teams like chicago and columbus and LA play each other, they tend to shoot the lights out, i wish i could back this "opinion" with some stats but i guess i found this...

<TABLE class=statfull><TBODY><TR><TD class=stwo style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" width="100%">The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sone style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" width="100%">The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Columbus</TD></TR><TR><TD class=stwo style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" width="100%">Chicago is 6-12-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Columbus</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sone style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" width="100%">The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing on the road against Columbus</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

From right before i decided to sleep, i said i'd take the jackets ml and the over, and right now i'm sticking to it, i can see a 4-2 type of game or one of those, if lalime is in net, all you need to do is pot one past him , and cycle and pressure and forecheck and he's bound to give up more

my 2 cents i will also take the canes tonight!
 
I agree with you gsro on CBJ as a side, but like Satyr, I dont understand why Chicago is such a small underdog in this one.
 
you know i've been wondering about some of these lines too, like 2 nights ago...carolina were 2.00 road dogs to the same blackhawks but why? i sat and thought about the gift from the bookies, but 2.00 road dogs against the hawks and they were on a winning streak.. but i'm assuming this might have to attribute to why ..i'm not sure but
<TABLE class=statfull><TBODY><TR><TD class=stwo style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" width="100%">Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games </TD></TR><TR><TD class=sone style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" width="100%">Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> and i think columbus is like 1 and 7 SU in the last 8 games at home..this could be another reason..
 
I also can't help to think that this streak that florida is on goes away tonight against a hungry rangers team..they are right there in fifth, and before the win by ottawa last night, they were tied, i'd expect a hungry performance bythe rangers and @ 1.78 i'll take my chances
 
I'd take the Rangers if they were paying 10-15 cents more than I can get them at currently. But they wion't go on forever without a reg. loss, and their non-functioning PP has got to catch up with them sooner or later. I'll seriously look at them off their next loss.
 
Florida has a decent remaining schedule for itself, I cant go against them. Florida and Toronto, in my opinion, both deserve to make the playoffs. Boston and Philly do not.
 
Florida has a decent remaining schedule for itself, I cant go against them. Florida and Toronto, in my opinion, both deserve to make the playoffs. Boston and Philly do not.

Why not Philly? They were among top 8 throughout the season, Toronto has been out of most playoff combinations until now. Philly fell apart as Gagne went out with a concussion, that's when their fall had started I think.
 
Why not Philly? They were among top 8 throughout the season, Toronto has been out of most playoff combinations until now. Philly fell apart as Gagne went out with a concussion, that's when their fall had started I think.

The Flyers cant get it done 5 on 5, in my 5 on 5 standings, they are 10 games below .500 (26 wins, 36 losses, 9 ties)...Only Atlanta and Tampa Bay are worse in the east.
 
I think Im slowly talking myself into taking the home underdog Florida...The way I see it: NY has been in Florida for 3 days now, perhaps living it up a little. Anderson has been hot in nets for Florida, the rangers are almost begging to lose if you look at the past games...Thoughts anyone?
 
Satyr, today is Friday. Legace at home on Friday is 18-2. In the four games this season he has given up 4 goals. The Sharks were the last team he lost to at home on friday. He lost 1-0. I completely agree the Blues are done as a team. It would Not surprise me for them to lose today but I would Never lay 1.5 today. GL Oops idiotic remark. Sharks are at home. Forget that nonsense. If I have anything constructive I will return.
 
Pulling the trigger.

San Jose -1,5 (2.28 @ Pinnacle) 8 units

Skipping Carolina for now, biggest lean of rest of the card at the moment.

GL :cheers:
 
Spent some time reading Blues paper. See no redeeming features to the team currently. Last 20 on the road 4-16. The ml is 230 at 5d. Blues 2-11 this season in ot. I laid 230 to win 1 unit. Subtract 920 from 1600 you get plus 680 which seems fine. Give me some more reasons to like the rl and I may add. Will be playing Atlanta plus .5, plus 1.5 and a smidge ml. GL
 
Satyr:
You forgot this unofficial stat from yours truly...

After not seeing Sj lose in person for over 2 years....I (and Wifey) have yet to see SJ win the last 2 years...

and guess who are going to be rinkside tonight and Sunday??

You got it...the Jinx Twins!

Sharks roll tonight and Sunday!

CHOMP CHOMP CHOMP!
 
:D hahaha

Nah, you're gonna see them win mate ;) have fun at the game, Thornton 2 goals, Cheechoo 1 goals, 2 assists, Setoguchi 1 G :D :D

Sharks win 4-1 ;)
 
Spent some time reading Blues paper. See no redeeming features to the team currently. Last 20 on the road 4-16. The ml is 230 at 5d. Blues 2-11 this season in ot. I laid 230 to win 1 unit. Subtract 920 from 1600 you get plus 680 which seems fine. Give me some more reasons to like the rl and I may add. Will be playing Atlanta plus .5, plus 1.5 and a smidge ml. GL

Glad to see we're on the same side here, and that you like ATL as well. We may be alone in the world liking them right now :D.

More reasons? The price, mainly. This one should not be over 2.05. We have 2.28. The Sharks have won 4 straight by 1 goal difference, this ends tonight. They do not want to end this streak, especially since nothing has been accomplished yet.

The Blues, as you put it, are basically done for the season. If Sharks don't cover, I will be looking at a great, and I mean a GREAT performance by several St Loo players. I do not see that happening right now.

4-1 is my call here. Cheers.
 
4:0 end 1st.

il go to sleep, since its 4:30 am, and i hope that they dont blow up this game like Calgary yesterday.

:cheers:
 
4-1 is my call here.

great call, Satyr
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:36_11_6:
 
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