Friday bases - 01.06.2007

[Unicorn]

YTD: 70-65, +128.19 Units

ML record: 55-45 (.555), +127.10 Units
RL record: 8-8 (.500), +12.50 Units
OU record: 5-3 (.625), +14.03 Units
Parlays: 2-9 (.182), -25.43 Units

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Hey everyone! Back in the business after I took Thursday off. Wednesday was really a big day and I doubt something like that will happen anytime soon, but still I'll try to continue positive trend and follow my feeling in the future while at the same time trying to cut the large number of games I usually (want to) bet on. I'll post my Friday plays shortly...

 

[Unicorn]

NY Yankees -111
Here we go again. A week and a half after the series at Yankee Stadium, we already have the 4th series between those two teams starting tonight at Fenway. This time, we'll see Wang pitching for the Yankees and who'll bring his 3.38 road ERA into the matchup against Wakefield who's only 1-2, 4.05 ERA this season at Fenway (4-3, 3.05 ERA on road). Wakefield's "little secret" is in his ball movement which happened to be great or disasterous. Great - when he was pitching inside of a dome on turf and disasterous - when he was pitching somewhere outside, on the grass field. Therefore, his "dome record" at turf is a perfect 3-0, 0.43 ERA while his record on grass field and open stadium stands at really ugly 2-5, 4.78 ERA. That's it as far as pitcher stats goes. Everything else is already well known to majority of the people. One more interesting thing - Yankees are 5-3 on Fenway since '06 with all 5 wins coming by at least 2 runs of a difference. Now, why I really choose Yankees over Red Sox tonight. Well, I think that Yankees may come into this series a bit more relaxed compared to their first visit to Fenway earlier this season when they were swept in a 3-game series. They've won the most recent series vs Red Sox and they've just snapped a 5-game losing streak by beating the Blue Jays on Wednesday. I guess they must had a good feeling yesterday when they had a day off and now they're coming into this game fresh and maybe a bit more encouraged. The Red Sox on the other hand, lost their last game vs Cleveland at home and took a day off with the bad taste in their mouth. And tonight they'll be facing their old nemesis, the Yankees. Well, if someone's worried Yankees are hurting at the moment with Giambi on DL (only .183 BA [15-for-82] vs Wakefield anyway), Damon and Posada day-to-day I'm not worried a little bit because amongst all things, they have Josh Phelps, who's got 2 RBI and batting .400 in the last 7 days (2-for-5) and who's career .320 BA hitter vs Wakefield in 25 AB to play 1st base so they could use someone else to DH. And I'm pretty sure Posada will catch this game while I don't think Torre would "allow" Damon to sit and just watch the game considering he's got some nice numbers vs his old teammate. Anyway, although I may be way wrong about this, I'll stay with my feeling and play NY with 12.5 Units.


... several more plays coming in no time.

 

[phillyfan18]

Like the Yankees tonight as well.

 

[Unicorn]

Arizona +120
I took them early this morning while the line was still a little bit higher compared to now when it stands at only around -102 to +100. Anyway, I see many people are sold on Mets these days (68% of the Wagerline visitors tonight on them at -106), but I can almost sniff a nice little suprise tonight by Diamondbacks. They got their ace going for them, who's been pitching better lately, although his ERA over his last 3 starts is misleading. Just check out his BB to K ratio and how many INN he's pitched. Those numbers you get are almost as good as it gets. Webb is a road warrior, posting a 3-1, 2.79 ERA in his road outings compared to only 1-2, 4.89 ERA at home. He's lifetime 1-6, 2.59 ERA vs the Mets but 1-1, 0.43 ERA (.189 BAA) vs them at Shea! Run support has never been a problem for him this season and D'backs are 8-3 when he starts. In addition, I'll mention that Mets aren't hitting lately well against righties, averaging only .240 BA with really low 2.7 RPG over their last 10 games. Mets are actually been a bit better ROAD team, posting a .720 winning percentage on the road compared to their .592 home winning percentage. That's why I don't understand what's all the fuss about playing them all the time at home - ppl just seem not to understand that not all the teams benefit from home field advantage - actually some may have additional pressure at home and therefore - not play so well at their place (Kansas, Florida, Pittsburgh, even Oakland so far - just to mention several). And as long as Maine is concerned, yes, he's been great most of the season but lately, he's just been walking too many people and it's just a matter of time before some team will use that to their advantage. And I can see Diamondbacks with their recent results (great hitting, high OBP and scoring runs in bunches while going 8-2 over their last 10 games and riding a 7-game winning streak ) doing exactly that. 12.5 Units.

 

[hile75]

nice writeups uni......gl tonite

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL with the plays Uni, D-backs are hot and hopefully they continue. wakefield also starting to get hit more. good writeups.

 

[outstanding]

go go go

 

[Unicorn]

Florida +139
Another mismatch. People seem to love to ride with the Brew-crew considering their home record which stands at really impressive 19-9. But, as some of the cappers on this forum already stated some time ago, it seems that they're not playing anymore with the same intensity like they were playing earlier in the season. Milwaukee is only 3-7 over their last 10 games and having serious hitting problems when facing lefties. Their stats vs southpaws over their last 10 games are .196 BA .258 OBP and 3.2 RPG. And guess who is starting for Florida tonight? Scott Olsen, a LHP. Not only that he's a leftie, but he's been striking ppl alot while enjoying some nice run support by his teammates (4.6 RPG for the season). Plus he's 1-0, 1.42 ERA vs Brewers with 1-0, 0.00 ERA when pitching in Milwaukee with only .045 BAA (I guess J.J.Hardy produced that only hit for his team in the total of 22 AB vs Olsen). And what about Jeff Suppan? Well, he's been great at home this season and good vs Florida, but only when facing them at Dolphins Stadium. Lately, he hasn't had much of a run support what equals to his 1-2 record over his last 3 starts. He also had his ERA balooned to 5.21 in the same span mainly because he was allowing too many free passes in addition to just being hittable. I'm sure Marlins may be able to use that to their own advantage, considering their current batters are combined .338 career hitters vs Suppan. Another 12.5 Unit play.

 

[Unicorn]

I don't have much time left for write-ups for my other plays, so here they are with only short notes:

Philadelphia -1.5 at +146
After the sweep by hot Arizona I expect the Phillies to bounce back tonight against the Giants who aren't hitting lately. Phillies have won all of the Eaton's last 3 starts while he posted only 2.29 ERA in the process. Morris pitching great but not run support so the Giants are only 1-2 in his last 3 starts with low 3.3 runs per game scored for him. 9.5 Units

LA Dodgers -1.5 at +107
Wolf pitching great lately, Dodgers 3-0 in his last 3 starts although the run support hasn't been great - only 3.3 runs per game. Zuke just AWFUL at home and vs Dodgers plus Pirates current hitters are combined only .213 BA vs Wolf. I took the Run Line only because although the Dodgers are 4-3 vs Pirates in Pittsburgh since '05, all 4 wins came with at least 2 runs of a difference. 7.5 Units

Tampa Bay -1.5 at +100
Strange to see Tampa favored so much, even at home with their ace but with the way Kansas has been playing lately, I took a bite. Run line was the only playable option considering ML is chalky like hell and because of the fact that Tampa is 7-0 vs KC in Tampa since '05 with all 7 wins coming with at least 2 runs off a difference. 5.5 Units


That's all, BOL everyone! :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Excellent writeups. Very interesting points raised in the Yanks/BoSox series, I have to say you went a lot deeper than me this time, all I cared for really is to take the dog. Feeling play as you say.

You do make a solid case but I'll stay with my 36-16 team over the 22-29 one. Still not sold on Wang getting back to his old self btw. Anyways, I like the Zona play, hopefully the Snakes will finally provide some RS against the Mets for their ace (horrid record so far), love the Dodgers as well. Florida were one of my leans, decided to skip it. Not sure what to think about TB at this price though. Love Kazmir but TB are laying a lot tonight.


Good luck tonight :cheers:

 

[TheShadyNFL]

GL tonight Mets fan here so cant root for that one, I also like my share of runlines, dont know how often the half point burns you but to eliminate it in certain games look at this (everyone else too)

lets say LAD tonight is ML -150 and hypothetically obviously the ruunline was +150 instead of laying 150 to win 100 on LAD ML lay 75 to win 50, then take the 50 you would win and lay that on the RL and that is 50 to win 75 ultimately you are risking 125 to win 125 and if they only win by 1 you lose nothing.

now every case isn't perfect w/ the RL juice being so high but you get the idea and if it were only +120 for a LAD RL tonight you could still get -1 odds for about a -110 risk

 

[Rug Rat]

The Boston Red Sox have had men on base each and every inning todate and their in their half of number three. They had the bases loaded in both innings 1 & 2 and now have runners at the corners in inning #3, with the tying run already in after being down 3-0 to the Yanks. Wang needs to have his 'wang' pulled! :down: