Friday Baseball

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Alright guys here is the story. I am pretty much even on the yr right now, a huge downward slope took all my profits away and I thought about this a lot yesterday and I have to go back to betting 3units a game and I am willing to get involved in a few more games at that price. At 5.5units, its tough mentally when you get your ass kicked. I made the mistake of raising my units, I doubt we will see that again but I will go back to the 5unit play if I feel very strong about a game. Hopefully I start this engine back up and make some dough. Currently this wk I am sitting at -$1067.62, I look to get that money back in the account by Sunday, just taking this 1 day at a time and that is the first goal. Monday really set my ass back this wk and the Royals didn't help me get even on Wednesday

First game I like..

Angels -1.5 -110: I hate RL's, I will be the first to admit it but this just seems like the only logical play here. You have home team + hotter team + better offense + better pitcher + better bullpen. There isnt a faze of the game that the Pirates are not outclassed here and they scored 5 runs in their last 3 games and sport back 2 back shutouts. They are a bad road team as well. Saunders is solid and he doesn't have to be great tonight, just good. Angels murder LHP lately and are 6-1 vs. LHP in their last 7 games. Duke on the road = 2-3 w/ 5.97era. I don't know if you guys have looked at his numbers but he has thrown 84ip and given up 120hits, sports an OBP of .386 overall and .405 on the yr. The league is hitting .350 off him overall and .372 on the road. His WHIP this yr 1.65 and 1.73 on the road. I can go on and on about these numbers here, the bottom line is that he is dog shit and even worse on the road.
 
Dude, GL. I'm still shellshocked as to what happened to me on Wednesday. I, like you, raised my stake, and went 0-3 with 3 1k plays. Um...

Rooting for you. Still not sure I'll be in.
 
shakes said:
Dude, GL. I'm still shellshocked as to what happened to me on Wednesday. I, like you, raised my stake, and went 0-3 with 3 1k plays. Um...

Rooting for you. Still not sure I'll be in.
Click to expand...

Ouch that hurts.

If losing has done anything positive for me, its made me learn some shit about money management. I use to dismiss that idea because I am young and dumb but I have learned the hardway here.. I raised the stakes when I was hot and kept them higher when I was getting raped for a month straight. Now that my account is a few hundred dollars more than where I started its like starting the season over which I wouldn't mind if it was April again.

Moving on to baseball.

Leans as of right now:

Twins +101
RSox -132
Reds -105
Yanks -115
Rangers Over 11

I am going through these games right now, have to coach at 5:45 so I have to get the 7:00 games out of the way first. BTW my 15-16yr olds are 5-1, should be 6-0 but lets not get into that. We are hot though, winners of 5 straight and we'd be a good bet tonight hah.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
Ouch that hurts.

If losing has done anything positive for me, its made me learn some shit about money management. I use to dismiss that idea because I am young and dumb but I have learned the hardway here.. I raised the stakes when I was hot and kept them higher when I was getting raped for a month straight. Now that my account is a few hundred dollars more than where I started its like starting the season over which I wouldn't mind if it was April again.

.
Click to expand...

Well, I'm older than you, and it's good that you learned that lesson. Me? I'm clearly dumb as shit because I dug myself a pretty damn big hole this year that Jenna Jameson would be proud of.
 
Want to add a lean..

Dodgers -139:

Dodgers are like 33-1 when leading after the 6th inning and is a team who knows how to close the deal. That makes me feel pretty confident when I put money on this team because in most cases it is a 6inning game. Lowe has been a rock lately and is 9-3 vs. the DRays from his days with the Sox. Sonnanstine is 1-1 w/ 7.71era, 19ip, 2-1h, 2bb, 20k in his 3 starts this yr. To be fair, all 3 of his starts have come on the road. Should I expect that he throws a 8inning shutout 2night since he gets to start at home? Dodgers are not a good interleague baseball team, posting a 9-27 record in their last 36 games and are 19-17 on the road. The good news is that they just took 2 of 3 from the BlowJays on the road. Dodgers are 7-3 in Lowe's last 10 starts, including a complete game 1-0 loss to Toronto. DRay bullpen troubles are pretty serious so if the Dodgers go down, they are never out of the game.
 
Angels -1.5 $330 to Win $300
Dodgers -1 $358 to Win $315


Still looking, have to head up to the field in a little bit.. Trying to narrow down the rest of the card, liking maybe 1-2 more plays
 
shakes said:
Well, I'm older than you, and it's good that you learned that lesson. Me? I'm clearly dumb as shit because I dug myself a pretty damn big hole this year that Jenna Jameson would be proud of.
Click to expand...

Shakes - you are def good at saying some funny shit..how bout doing some stand up comedy? Together we will get going in the right direction one of these days (i think i've been saying this for over 2wks now).


Renew - I hope that games comes in, I don't know what else you need to get a win.


I have to go to the field now. I should be back in time to bet by 8:15ish for the later games..Updated leans:

Texas Over 11
RSox -132
Reds -107
Yanks -115
 
Angels certainly worth playing. Not sure 1.5 is correct. Last 10 wins by more than 1 run at home you cash minus 2.5 in 9 and pick up 1 additional loss. Probably what I will play. Just waiting to see umpire to decide amounts and confirm the play. Kind of a no brainer. Best 2 Pitt pitchers next in line. Angels winners of 9 straight at home on Friday and this year 5 wins that break down 1 one run win and 4 3 or more wins. In any case definitely on the same side. GL
 
of those leans I like the Red Sox the most.
Hopefully the dodgers bats just dont disappear today, was looking at it but hate paying the juice.
 
Aight my guys won 12-2 so I am back early. Kids played sloppy ball today too, lucky the other team sucked.

Tuck - Are you saying that I should be laying 2.5runs? I can see how the odds on that play might be appealing but 1)my book doesnt offer it and 2)i'm having trouble picking ML winners, let along covering the -1.5 line.

Satyr - Thanks
Trout - Mean Green, lol...more like Timid pussy green but lets cash today
Renew - I am trying to figure out if my Yankee lean is a homer lean or a legit lean. I am attracted because of the price, I have no problem fading the Giants again but if Igawa is going to put them in a hole it will be tough to get a lot of runs off Cain although he is not unhittable. At home he is 1-3 w/ 4.08era, 6g, 39.2ip, 35h, 17bb, 29k. He has had a tough run these last 2 games with no run support, can he keep shutting these teams down every game? Its hard to trust the Reds but I like Harang a lot
 
Its tough to say about the Yankees game, just too many unknown factors to deal with. I mean if the Yankees bats wake up it should be over in a heartbeat.
 
Thanks Farm

Renew - Yes lots unknown but very affordable juice. Everything I am reading says they changed Igawa's mechanics. Giants have lost 7 straight and 19 of 25, they are playing terrible baseball right now and SF hitters are 5-for-54 w/ runners in scoring position.

Dodgers up 4-2 in the Top 7, hopefully one of the top 3 bullpens in baseball holds onto the lead like they have the other 33 times this yr when leading after the 6th. Would love for the DRays bullpen to give me some insurance as well. My -1 line is going to come real close too if they don't.

I have eliminated the Reds from my lean, just don't trust them. Harang ran up a lot of pitches last outting and I just havent seen enough of the Mariner pitcher.

I am still going through the numbers on the RSox game but thinking of playing both Yanks and Sox.
 
damnit Lowe and the Dodgers.. 10hits-4runs.....Rays got 5hits and 3r, have scored 1 time in the last three straight innings.
 
Man on Fire said:
ETG, any thoughts on the Sea/Reds game.
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Yea - I leaned Reds because I like Harang but I am not sold on the play here.

Feierabend has two starts this yr, in each one he pitched into atleast the 7th inning.

6.2 at angles, and 7.1 vs rangers.

14.0 ip, 15 hits, 3 hr, 3 walks, 8 k's, .278 opp avg, 5.14 era, an

The HR are alarming and the Reds hit a lot of homers but without the homers, the era would be a little lower.

Harang is a horse and can throw a lot of pitches and go deep into the game but he threw over 120 last start and only lasted 5.2innings.

The Reds are 10-5 in his starts and he is 7-2 but that bullpen scares the shit out of me.

No play for me, nothing strong enough here to justify the play, I was drawn in to it at first because of the small line but the line is pretty good
 
USAToday says there is 28 mph west wind at SF. If that is correct, that's pretty windy. I have never been to the ballpark, but I think the way the park sits that it will be blowing in from left and out to right. Does that sound right?
 
Veteran Observer said:
USAToday says there is 28 mph west wind at SF. If that is correct, that's pretty windy. I have never been to the ballpark, but I think the way the park sits that it will be blowing in from left and out to right. Does that sound right?
Click to expand...

haha weather.com says 10 mph. thats a huge discrepency by weather.com. MLB.com says 27 out to CF. there is a stadium orientation thread in the baseball forum you can use or use weather.com as they provide it, but STL's is backward.

mlb.com when they release lineups will have what direction as well.
 
pac_bell_park.gif



Thats how the stadium sits...​
 
Now onto weather.com....strange..

Wind: From the WNW at 10 mph and listed as HEAVY.

Last time I checked, 10mph was mild to light wind. If the wind is from the w to the NW than it has to be blowing out right?
 
umm well the BoSox line got hammered down to -127 right before the game, I got caught up on the phone and missed my chance to bet it, lets see if that was good or bad.

10 minutes to decide on the Spankees... Might just ride w/ my 2 origional games. Don't really know at the moment and that wind in SF has be all thrown off. I mean, I felt stronger about the RSox than the Spankees anyway so that kind of hurts in my mind for me to justify this play. The way things have been going for me as well, it might be dumb to bet on a pitcher who has blown this yr.. Maybe let him earn my trust back first..

Off to the bar, best of luck to all.. Just decided, no other plays
 
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