Friday April 19th MLB Discussion Thread
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
over the last 365 days kluber and toussaint have accounted for 29 overs in 37 starts between them, and the total is a redic low 7.5 :shocked:
maybe it's a contrarian spot but I gotta try the over
View attachment 39041
maybe it's a contrarian spot but I gotta try the over
View attachment 39041
Wow
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
Dan Iassogna behind the play at Wrigley, seems pretty neutral. Hendricks has not looked right in any outing thus far. Some umps haven't helped him get the calls he needs with his pin point control and attacking the corners of the strike zone. Dbacks have been quietly annoying and gave the Braves all kinds of fits. Cubs have been good vs righties, .276/.365/.828
My model likes the over 7, and projecting 9 runs. But 0-3-1 in last 4 total bets.
My model likes the over 7, and projecting 9 runs. But 0-3-1 in last 4 total bets.
Starters, relievers or both, Tuck?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I wish the weather was nicer in stl, Vargas has been god awful and cards should tee off but it kinda gloomy and chilly so ball not gonna carry at all, on top of that winds are supposed to pick up all evening and blowing in.
Cards outfield a defensive mess w the injuries forcing Fowler into center with Ozuna and Martinez playing the corner spots they have no range and always a chance for some hilarious looking reads/attempts on fly balls! I’d love to get down on the over but just can’t do it in this park w the weather being what it is.
I’m gonna play cards ff rl at -110, id like to go full game but hate laying 1.5 w home team especially when park gonna play really big. Pretty surprised to see muts pen numbers so poor, I thought they had a bunch of studs back there? My perception definately flipped on where both pens numbers actually stand, cards being top 10 in most categories surprising and muts near the bottom really shocking.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Bryant o2 +130 cashes
:bravo:
:bravo:
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t expect the lefty numbers to stay that way, they were top 5 ops vs lefties last year and hell they incredibly right handed lineup so wouldn’t make much sense for lefties to bother them (I can’t even recall what lefty starters they have faced so I’m sure it a pretty low number). Carp 5 for 5 vs Vargas so he doesn’t even bother our main lefty bat. Shame bader hurt cause for as bad that kid can look vs rhp he hits lefties really well.
As I mentioned the problem w the over the weather, cold and gloomy and wind supposed to really pick up. Even in nice conditions this still a pitchers park, it plays really big when the weather like this, you have to really crush the ball to get it out on a night like gonna be tonight.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
isn't wainy having trouble reaching 90 with his fb? Mets can hit a bit. wonder if over isn't the way to go here
jdoggoakley
Pretty much a regular
played Astros TT ov 5.5 for a good sized play. Runs are scored in that park and the wind is blowing out and Smyly isn't fooling too many. Current Stros hitters at .310 avg vs Smyly with a .980 OPS on a pretty good sample size
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I’m in same boat, in lot of ways I think it tougher on hitters sometimes not even getting 2 abs vs the same guy but incredibly difficult to come up w a expected number of runs when you know a team gonna run out 5+ guys. So many more variables in a sport that already has a ton! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
He is hardly throwing his 4 seamer, the sinker been right around 90. I havnt seen his spin rates but just seeing the bite on his curve I suspect he has that back close to where he wants it. Honestly he been better than I thought he would, reds offense kinda in a funk but I was shocked how he held them down in that Mexico park where ball was flying out. He only gave up the 2 solo blast, I don’t recall the 1st but the second at the end of his outing wouldn’t have gotten to the track in our park.
For me it just really hard to get on board w a 9 over in this park in these conditions. Both teams gonna have to string walks/hits together to put up runs cause I doubt we see more than 1-2 bombs tops. Maybe Ozuna can get one out, he on fire and good deal of his bombs are screaming liners so more likely he can keep it out the wind that gonna knock down anything hit up in the air.
It a damn shame we not getting the ace matchups tonight cause we have great conditions for a under, just no chance I’d play it w these starters. I don’t think waino have a problem going 6 and limiting Mets to 2-3 runs. Who knows w Vargas, he hasn’t completed 2 innings in awhile! lol.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Classic Cubs for ya
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
No guts. Had a rule of sorts. Every time I play Cubs it is 1.5 or 2.5. They have no 1 run wins. In the morning I thought about it and then put them in a ml parlay with Astros. RL would have paid better. On that topic I am not on Houston every day although that may come. Today in my world is just a forced play. Astros on the road in first game of series are Extremely strong. This is on the road after a loss probably low 80s. The Astros have been playing after a day off in this game and that repeats as well
Lean to letting the Cardinal experts call the shots here but at least hitting them Straight up and lean over
Lean to letting the Cardinal experts call the shots here but at least hitting them Straight up and lean over
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I havnt followed them very close but recall playing a few overs when they went to atl and good god they were stranding the hell out of runners!! I expect the offense will get better but I just don’t see that pitching staff being playoff caliber, starters or pen.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
The Cubs run line theory is a pretty good one. They've had one save opportunity so far this season.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
That’s funny you say that since that’s easily been the best part of their team since the first week. I can’t believe it either.
peelpub94
More Guards Than Shawshank
So last night I tried something out by taking the Red Sox +1.5 (-120) live last night at the top of the 4th when the Rays were ahead 2-0. Stanek pitched 2, Yarbrough struck out the side in 3rd.. and I said to myself who else is actually left in that pen that can get this line up out? Yes the sox are struggling, but basically the bats can wake up when they face a pen arm that has nothing. Sure enough it happened and the Sox ended up winning out right 6-4. Something to keep our eyes on on pen days to maybe play teams live against the Rays on the run line especially if they are already down 1 or 2.
