Game 3 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The Road Warrior Knicks
The Pacers are favored heavily partly because they are playing at home.
However, the Knicks are a good road team.
Last series, they won two of their three games in Philadelphia.
Seven points is a lot for a team that doesn't appear to be bothered by playing in a road venue.
Missing OG Anunoby
New York will be without OG Anunoby tonight.
While nobody will deny that Anunoby is a good individual defender, bettors have a terrible tendency to treat injuries like a math equation. Real life is not like a video game where a team's overall quality drops because it loses a good player.
In Game 2, the Knicks without Anunoby held Indiana to its second-lowest-scoring quarter in that game.
Without Anunoby, New York never relinquished its lead and ended up winning by nine to cover the spread.
New York is just fine without Anunoby, and that's largely because it can rely on Precious Achiuwa.
Achiuwa shares Anunoby's defensive versatility.
In this postseason, Achiuwa has done a strong job of defending the basket, managing to limit the scoring and efficiency of the likes of Philadelphia's star center Joel Embiid.
Indiana's Defense
The Pacers allowed over 120 points in both games in this series.
Their defense is unreliable in general, as evident in its struggle to limit Milwaukee's offense when the Bucks were missing their two top scorers.
But New York's top scorer Jalen Brunson should play, as he did at the end of Game 2, and he is too difficult for them to contain, especially without leaving themselves vulnerable to the contributions of his teammates.
If Brunson does miss this game, Indiana anyhow has a terrible tendency, which has been evident throughout the season when it lost to teams like the Spurs and Hornets, to play down to the level of its opponent.
Best Bet: Knicks +7 at -107 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
How Dallas Won Game 2
In Game 2, the Mavericks held off the Thunder and secured a nine-point victory.
A lot of unrepeatable things had to go Dallas' way for this to happen.
The main unrepeatable thing is the absurd three-point shooting disparity.
Whereas the Mavericks made 18 three-pointers, shooting 48.6 percent from behind the arc, OKC shot 33.3 percent.
This disparity is unlikely to repeat itself because the Thunder own the best three-point shooting percentage in the NBA.
Even their road three-point shooting percentage trumps Dallas' home three-point shooting percentage, so the fact that Game 3 takes place in Dallas doesn't alter my point.
In Game 2, Chet Holmgren was off for the Thunder, whereas Tim Hardaway Jr., played improbably well.
One must expect players to play more like themselves in Game 3.
The Thunder Had Opportunities
It is worth noting that the Thunder had great opportunities to score more points in Game 2.
The point here is that Dallas' defense is even more vulnerable than the scoreboard suggests.
Partly due to its struggle with containing dribble penetration, Dallas failed to keep the Thunder from amassing great opportunities behind the arc.
Oklahoma City attempted 13 open three-pointers but converted just two of those attempts.
Expect, in Game 3, more of those good opportunities to go in.
Luka Doncic
After Game 1, people were ready to write off Luka Doncic.
Now, people are praising him.
Let's try to take a more comprehensive look: Doncic has had good games in this postseason, but he's been inconsistent in general and mostly bad from behind the arc at least partly due to his lingering knee problems – shooting, after all, requires you to bend your knees.
For example, he followed up his best shooting performance against the Clippers with his second-to-worst one in that series.
The Thunder still have a strong assortment of wing defenders. Lu Dort, for example, looked great in Game 1.
Both he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are great defenders, having received votes for the NBA All-Defensive Team. Guard Cason Wallace has nice quickness that is especially useful against Luka's fellow star teammate Kyrie Irving.
These defenders will do a more visibly solid job of containing Luka as well as the apparently less threatening Kyrie.
Best Bet: Thunder +3 at -105 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, May 11, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland Is Not Miami
Many bettors are noticing that this series is looking a lot like Boston's first round series against Miami.
In that series, Boston followed its Game 2 catastrophe with a blowout win over the Heat.
While I do believe that the Celtics will bounce back with a win, I don't think it's realistic to expect a similar sort of scoreline.
Miami scored 84 points in Game 3, but this was a Heat team missing its top scorer. The Heat were offensively rather anemic. You could simply take away their three-point shooting and rely on them to struggle to score inside.
Boston Is Not Orlando
It is difficult, however, to take away Cleveland's three-point shooting.
When Boston players, after their Game 2 loss, are talking about the need to play better defensively, they are setting up a false narrative.
They are letting people think that they played well defensively in Game 1 and that Game 2 was some sort of aberration, that Game 2 was a defensive catastrophe that simply putting in more effort will fix.
However, in Game 1, the Celtics allowed Cleveland nineteen open three-point attempts and nineteen wide-open ones.
The Cavaliers simply did a terrible job of converting their open three-point attempts, making three of them.
Boston is not Orlando, Cleveland's first-round opponent, in the sense that the Celtics' defense lacks the same disruptive energy, activity, and toughness.
Donovan Mitchell and Company
Donovan Mitchell is difficult to contain. He can thrive inside, especially against a Boston defense missing its top rim protector, and he can get his teammates involved with a high assist total. In this series, he's amassed points and assists.
In terms of three-point percentage, Cleveland shoots drastically better at home than on the road.
This is largely because Mitchell's supporting cast tends to step up at home. Max Strus, for example, is 7-for-16 from deep in his last two home games combined.
So one has to expect them to take advantage of their three-point shooting opportunities.
As evident in what he did against the Magic, Darius Garland is also capable of doing more than he's done in this series, especially with Boston's defense having to struggle to figure out how to contain Mitchell.
Cleveland's three-point shooting has a good chance of succeeding also with its strength of scoring inside – Evan Mobley is showing great comfort now occupying the center position.
Boston's Offense
It is no fluke that the Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1.
Game 2 was unusual for them in that they made just 2 of their 15 open three-point attempts.
Boston has the second-best three-point shooting percentage, so one must expect a stronger shooting performance in Game 3.
It's not simply a matter of conversion rate, though.
In Game 1, Boston showed much more energy and ball movement on offense, whereas both were lacking in Game 2, where the Celtics devolved too often into iso mode.
As we've seen this postseason with the Mavericks and Pacers, when professionals stagnate and lack energy in one game, they tend to respond by putting forth the necessary effort.
Boston, too, locked in after its Game 2 loss last series.
We'll see more focus and effort from them, although these things will only benefit their offense. Effort and focus won't alter the deficiencies of their defense that were already visible in Game 1 despite Cleveland's typical road woes.
Best Bet: Over 212 at -110 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The Road Warrior Knicks
The Pacers are favored heavily partly because they are playing at home.
However, the Knicks are a good road team.
Last series, they won two of their three games in Philadelphia.
Seven points is a lot for a team that doesn't appear to be bothered by playing in a road venue.
Missing OG Anunoby
New York will be without OG Anunoby tonight.
While nobody will deny that Anunoby is a good individual defender, bettors have a terrible tendency to treat injuries like a math equation. Real life is not like a video game where a team's overall quality drops because it loses a good player.
In Game 2, the Knicks without Anunoby held Indiana to its second-lowest-scoring quarter in that game.
Without Anunoby, New York never relinquished its lead and ended up winning by nine to cover the spread.
New York is just fine without Anunoby, and that's largely because it can rely on Precious Achiuwa.
Achiuwa shares Anunoby's defensive versatility.
In this postseason, Achiuwa has done a strong job of defending the basket, managing to limit the scoring and efficiency of the likes of Philadelphia's star center Joel Embiid.
Indiana's Defense
The Pacers allowed over 120 points in both games in this series.
Their defense is unreliable in general, as evident in its struggle to limit Milwaukee's offense when the Bucks were missing their two top scorers.
But New York's top scorer Jalen Brunson should play, as he did at the end of Game 2, and he is too difficult for them to contain, especially without leaving themselves vulnerable to the contributions of his teammates.
If Brunson does miss this game, Indiana anyhow has a terrible tendency, which has been evident throughout the season when it lost to teams like the Spurs and Hornets, to play down to the level of its opponent.
Best Bet: Knicks +7 at -107 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Friday, May 10, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
How Dallas Won Game 2
In Game 2, the Mavericks held off the Thunder and secured a nine-point victory.
A lot of unrepeatable things had to go Dallas' way for this to happen.
The main unrepeatable thing is the absurd three-point shooting disparity.
Whereas the Mavericks made 18 three-pointers, shooting 48.6 percent from behind the arc, OKC shot 33.3 percent.
This disparity is unlikely to repeat itself because the Thunder own the best three-point shooting percentage in the NBA.
Even their road three-point shooting percentage trumps Dallas' home three-point shooting percentage, so the fact that Game 3 takes place in Dallas doesn't alter my point.
In Game 2, Chet Holmgren was off for the Thunder, whereas Tim Hardaway Jr., played improbably well.
One must expect players to play more like themselves in Game 3.
The Thunder Had Opportunities
It is worth noting that the Thunder had great opportunities to score more points in Game 2.
The point here is that Dallas' defense is even more vulnerable than the scoreboard suggests.
Partly due to its struggle with containing dribble penetration, Dallas failed to keep the Thunder from amassing great opportunities behind the arc.
Oklahoma City attempted 13 open three-pointers but converted just two of those attempts.
Expect, in Game 3, more of those good opportunities to go in.
Luka Doncic
After Game 1, people were ready to write off Luka Doncic.
Now, people are praising him.
Let's try to take a more comprehensive look: Doncic has had good games in this postseason, but he's been inconsistent in general and mostly bad from behind the arc at least partly due to his lingering knee problems – shooting, after all, requires you to bend your knees.
For example, he followed up his best shooting performance against the Clippers with his second-to-worst one in that series.
The Thunder still have a strong assortment of wing defenders. Lu Dort, for example, looked great in Game 1.
Both he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are great defenders, having received votes for the NBA All-Defensive Team. Guard Cason Wallace has nice quickness that is especially useful against Luka's fellow star teammate Kyrie Irving.
These defenders will do a more visibly solid job of containing Luka as well as the apparently less threatening Kyrie.
Best Bet: Thunder +3 at -105 with BetOnline
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, May 11, 2024 at 8:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Cleveland Is Not Miami
Many bettors are noticing that this series is looking a lot like Boston's first round series against Miami.
In that series, Boston followed its Game 2 catastrophe with a blowout win over the Heat.
While I do believe that the Celtics will bounce back with a win, I don't think it's realistic to expect a similar sort of scoreline.
Miami scored 84 points in Game 3, but this was a Heat team missing its top scorer. The Heat were offensively rather anemic. You could simply take away their three-point shooting and rely on them to struggle to score inside.
Boston Is Not Orlando
It is difficult, however, to take away Cleveland's three-point shooting.
When Boston players, after their Game 2 loss, are talking about the need to play better defensively, they are setting up a false narrative.
They are letting people think that they played well defensively in Game 1 and that Game 2 was some sort of aberration, that Game 2 was a defensive catastrophe that simply putting in more effort will fix.
However, in Game 1, the Celtics allowed Cleveland nineteen open three-point attempts and nineteen wide-open ones.
The Cavaliers simply did a terrible job of converting their open three-point attempts, making three of them.
Boston is not Orlando, Cleveland's first-round opponent, in the sense that the Celtics' defense lacks the same disruptive energy, activity, and toughness.
Donovan Mitchell and Company
Donovan Mitchell is difficult to contain. He can thrive inside, especially against a Boston defense missing its top rim protector, and he can get his teammates involved with a high assist total. In this series, he's amassed points and assists.
In terms of three-point percentage, Cleveland shoots drastically better at home than on the road.
This is largely because Mitchell's supporting cast tends to step up at home. Max Strus, for example, is 7-for-16 from deep in his last two home games combined.
So one has to expect them to take advantage of their three-point shooting opportunities.
As evident in what he did against the Magic, Darius Garland is also capable of doing more than he's done in this series, especially with Boston's defense having to struggle to figure out how to contain Mitchell.
Cleveland's three-point shooting has a good chance of succeeding also with its strength of scoring inside – Evan Mobley is showing great comfort now occupying the center position.
Boston's Offense
It is no fluke that the Celtics scored 120 points in Game 1.
Game 2 was unusual for them in that they made just 2 of their 15 open three-point attempts.
Boston has the second-best three-point shooting percentage, so one must expect a stronger shooting performance in Game 3.
It's not simply a matter of conversion rate, though.
In Game 1, Boston showed much more energy and ball movement on offense, whereas both were lacking in Game 2, where the Celtics devolved too often into iso mode.
As we've seen this postseason with the Mavericks and Pacers, when professionals stagnate and lack energy in one game, they tend to respond by putting forth the necessary effort.
Boston, too, locked in after its Game 2 loss last series.
We'll see more focus and effort from them, although these things will only benefit their offense. Effort and focus won't alter the deficiencies of their defense that were already visible in Game 1 despite Cleveland's typical road woes.
Best Bet: Over 212 at -110 with BetOnline
