Friday 4/11 Baseball

[Dmoney416]

March/April:

Favorites: 3-7, -4.92u
Underdogs: 3-10, -5.06u
Totals: 8-6, +2.03u
Props:
Overall: 14-23, -7.95u

Yesterday: 1-1, -0.12u

All plays on Matchbook unless noted.

Florida (Nolasco) +165 (1u to win 1.65)
Philadelphia (Myers) +104 (1u to win 1.04)
Pittsburgh (Maholm) +100 (1u to win 1)
San Diego (Peavy) -101 (1.01u to win 1)

Thoughts coming - BOL to all today. :cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

lean pitt as well ... can never trust the reds against lefties.

We have a nolasco sighting !!!!

gl today dmoney !

 

[Bailey81]

Gl tonight D. Card looks solid. Nalasco at that price does look juicy against the woeful Nats.

 

[Dmoney416]

San Diego -101 is simple enough, as I will back Peavy at this price in almost every situation in the National League (with the exception of at the Mets with Santana going, along with a couple of others).

Pittsburgh +100 vs. Cincinnati

As VK mentioned above, I don't much like Cincy against lefties. Phillips and Keppinger are the only right handed bats that scare me. Encarnacion can put a couple of games together as well, but overall he is still way too inconsistent. When Cincy plays LHP, Dusty often will have to play with his line-up with Patterson, Griffey, Dunn, and Votto all being important lefties. This means that you could easily see a Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel, or Paul Bako sighting tonight.

A couple of Reds have had success against Maholm:

Hopper: 5-10
Encarnacion: 10-23, .435
Phillips: 7-20, .350, 3 HRs

but others struggle:

Freel: 6-26, .231
Dunn: 2-20, .100

Also, while Volquez had a solid first outing, I am not sure it warrants him being favored on the road yet. Also, depite their struggles, I still trust Capps and co. more than Cincy's makeshift bullpen.

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks VK - glad to see we agree.

Thanks B, BOL tonight. Florida is playing Houston and Oswalt though.

 

[Bailey81]

Yeah, messed that one up D. Still nice price. GL tonight.

 

[Dmoney416]

Florida +165 at Houston

Oswalt has fantastic career numbers against Florida: 62 IP, 5-2, 1.88 ERA.
Still, going back to September last year, he seems to be struggling a bit:

September:

@Milwaukee: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO
@ NY Mets: 7 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO
Pittsburgh: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO
@ St. Louis: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO

and now this year:

@San Diego: 5.1 IP, 11 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO
@Chicago Cubs: 6.2 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO

There is some solid starts there, particularly the last two September starts. Still, even in those games, he is scattering an awful lot of hits, and it will catch up to him. In those games, he has given up 55 H in 38.2 IP.

And, while Oswalt has great numbers against the Fish, individuals have had some success. The only player who has really struggled is Uggla, at 0-10.

Others:

Luis Gonzalez: 6-21, .286
Wes Helms: 7-19, .368, 4 2B, 1 HR
Jeremy Hermida: 4-9, .444, 1 HR
Hanley Ramirez: 5-13, .385, 1 HR
Josh Willingham: 3-9, .333

Philadelphia +104 vs. Chicago

Just value here IMO. I would prefer to wait to see if Rollins plays, but this price has popped up on MB and I couldn't pass it up. Myers is 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA vs. the Cubs in 57 IP. Lee (10-22) is the only player with any real extended success against him. Cubs bullpen has pitched 14 innings in the last 2 days.

 

[reNew Orleans]

i am jealous of those lines -101 for SD?
been getting shafted on bookmaker waiting for something less than -115 and it never came even though peavy was +money on pinny this morning.

BOL today dmoney, lets cash the pads

 

[RetroVK]

great call on oswalt dmoney.

no matter what happens from here , what a value you found based on your assessments. good work. think its 5-3 marlins as i right this.

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

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[Swayler]

That a boy D!!

 

[RetroVK]

swayler , what part of texas are you from ?


nice day dmoney.... need peavy for the sweep !