Friday 03/29/13 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - FRI 3/29[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Fri 3/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]853[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-2 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 193.5 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]854[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+2 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 193.5 1.980[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Fri 3/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]855[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Atlanta Hawks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+1.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 195 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]856[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Boston Celtics[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-1.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 195 1.980[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Fri 3/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]861[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-7.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 203.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]862[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Minnesota Timberwolves[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+7.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 203.5 1.926[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Fri 3/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]865[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Houston Rockets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 197 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]866[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Memphis Grizzlies[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 197 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Fri 3/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]869[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Brooklyn Nets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+6.5 1.971[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 205 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]870[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-6.5 1.935[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 205 1.926[/TD]
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Memphis is one of the premier Under teams of the NBA, is 9-1 to Under L10 vs Western teams & hasn't conceded 100+ pts in a home game off having conceded 100+ pts in their previous game this season (5 times, avg 87.2 pts against), and Houston is on 7-0 & 12-3 Under runs (& avg's 6.3 ppg less on the road, after all those recent Unders came at home).

And the line is 197. If that isn't superficially begging for Under plays, I don't know what is.
 
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Boston has been more down than up with-&-w/out KG since their Miami effort came up short, but Atlanta is the Tin Man of the NBA. Keep away - the line itself says lottery.
 
First leans are Memphis and Denver - both teams play at home and I think that 3 - 5 spots in the West battle is huge for all the teams. The difference between finishing 3rd and playing with HCA against Houston or GS or finishing 5th and playing without HCA against Denver/ Clippers/ Memphis will almost surely will determine is the team can go to the second round or not.

Nets in a middle of a very very long road trip and off a very nice win against Portland (and a win against the Suns before that). They in good form, but Denver off two straight losses, comes back home, where they are 32 - 3. The line is big, but Denver should win and hopefully over the line.

Houston a very streaky team (just like the Knicks), but haven't had B2B losses in March. Hard for me to believe this will continue. Again, 5 points line, but still, I believe that Memphis will rebound from the recent two losses and they are 10 - 0 SU at home in their last 10 home games.

Good chance I will take them as ML parlay.
 
Somewhat interested in a play on Clippers. 7-2 with revenge of a home loss and its the third game of a 4 in 6 where they have to play at Houston the next day. Clippers operating with serious hate of Spurs will give this all they have.
Last game Randolph played amazingly bad and I think he has to be hurt which ties in with the high total.
 
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Denver is turrible against the Atlantic division but the nets are not good against good teams. Not sure if I will play anything there.
 
Pistons Friday home game.... Very intriguing

Drummond might return....

Possibly no Amir Johnson

Calderon facing his old team for the first time
 
Hornets could be the best spot play of the day.

Toronto isn't even trying right now. They should be ashamed of themselves for their effort last game getting outscored 63-34 in the second half. Can't even remember the last time Pistons won a home game but tonight is the night.
 
Bad formatting

Head-to-Head Search Result(s)
Detroit at home vs any opponent in any month on Friday

Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS O/U
03/08/2013 vs. Dallas 99-102 L +4 W O 199.5
02/08/2013 vs. San Antonio 119-109 W +5.5 W O 197.5
02/01/2013 vs. Cleveland 117-99 W -4.5 W O 199
01/04/2013 vs. Atlanta 85-84 W +1.5 W U 191
12/28/2012 vs. Miami 109-99 W +6 W O 190.5
12/21/2012 vs. Washington 100-68 W -6.5 W U 185
12/07/2012 vs. Chicago 104-108 L +2.5 L O 181.5
11/23/2012 vs. Toronto 91-90 W -1.5 L U 191.5
11/16/2012 vs. Orlando 106-110 L -5 L O 187.5
04/13/2012 vs. Milwaukee 97-113 L +5 L O 202.5
03/23/2012 vs. Miami 73-88 L +9 L U 191
03/09/2012 vs. Atlanta 86-85 W +2 W U 182.5
02/17/2012 vs. Sacramento 114-108 W -3 W O 191
02/10/2012 vs. Brooklyn 109-92 W -3 W O 187.5
02/03/2012 vs. Milwaukee 88-80 W +4.5 W U 183.5
01/27/2012 vs. Atlanta 101-107 L +6.5 W O 178.5
01/20/2012 vs. Memphis 81-98 L +5 L U 180.5
04/08/2011 vs. Milwaukee 110-100 W +1 W O 191
04/01/2011 vs. Chicago 96-101 L +8 W O 189.5
03/18/2011 vs. New York 99-95 W +3.5 W U 214.5

Records Points
Straight Up: 12-8
Against the Spread: 14-6 Home PF - 1984 (99.2)
Home PA - 1936 (96.8)
Away PF - 0 (0.0)
Away PA - 0 (0.0)
 
STRANGE COINCIDENCE?

Rockets lost 74-94 at home to Celts to end their 22 game win streak, next game was....at NEW ORLEANS....Rockets were getting 6, lost 69-90. (during the streak, they won as 4pt dogs at NO)
Heat just lost 97-101 on road at Bulls, next game is tonight..at NEW ORLEANS...but they are favored by 7

Rockets won 12 in a row ATS, then had a non-cover win, then beat Lakers as 3.5pt home favs, before the streak ended to BOS, so they were playing real well at tail end of streak - going 13-1 ATS. Heat on other hand, were scraping by and extended lot of energy during streak, going just 5-4 ATS last 9 before the loss at CHI.

FWIW...2013 Blackhawks started season with 24 games with a point, finally lost to COL. then lost their next game as well to Oilers.
Spurs won 10 in a row to end season last year, won their first 10 playoff games, for a 20game streak...then lost 4 in a row to OKC to end their season.

Teams usually struggle after a long streak is ended, we will see how Heat do tonight.
 
I never had the time to go back and look at the streaks. I just feel that in today's day in age with the media, there is so much attention paid to long winning streaks that players have an insane amount of pressure on them day in day out. Once the streak ends, the players have to take a break mentally. It's just human nature IMO.
 
Looking at Minn plus points and team total over 97
Made no bets yet

<tbody>
[TD="width: 10%"]DATE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]HOME[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]AWAY[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]PTS[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]SU RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]H LINE[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]ATS RESULT[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U[/TD]
[TD="width: 10%"]O/U RESULT[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/20/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]200[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]04/14/2012[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]115[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]11½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]202[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/26/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]207[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]01/26/2011[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]117[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]118[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]220[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]12/08/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]217[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]02/21/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]107[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]109[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]201½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/20/2010[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]92[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]94[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]199½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/22/2009[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]199½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]U[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]01/07/2009[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]129[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]OKC[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]-5½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]202½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData1, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]03/02/2008[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]MIN[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]SEA[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]-8[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]194½[/TD]
[TD="class: AlternatingData2, width: 10%"]O[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Also probably will be on SAS -4. Just can't believe that LAC will win twice in one season in SA and hoping that 4 points won't make the difference...
 
Pistons are 17-6 ATS at home following a home loss, including 7-1 ATS when off a loss of 15 or more points...
 
Why Houston MW?

Memphis is 1-7 ATS last 8 for a reason. I think they're fatigued. Since the all-star break, they've had one two-game homestand. Otherwise, they've had to travel for every game, home and away. Houston meanwhile is playing just their fifth game in the last 12 days and have been at home since returning from a game at Phoenix on March 9.
 
Betcrimes,

Do you possibly have the numbers for O/U on Fridays for the season?
Feels like it has been money all year.
Unders that is...
 
Would be on the Rockets as well if not for them playing the Clippers at home tomorrow night...
 
Betcrimes,

Do you possibly have the numbers for O/U on Fridays for the season?
Feels like it has been money all year.
Unders that is...

I realise it's too late but I don't, so my addressing your Q late hasn't made a difference.

-----

I knew that damn Mem/Hou total was telegraphing 'take the Over'. Under was way too easy to take given that line.
 
@BetCrimes, per your system Wizards over playing away to sub 500 team:shake:

Irrespective of the result (looks like it look great through 3, then these chumps have manifested another drought), I have to make the point it's not *a system*. I don't believe in systems as they're generally undrstood on the MBs I've been on.

It's a general principle to simply pass on playing their Overs if they're playing a +.500 team. You consider their Overs only vs the sub-.500 teams, but even then it's not automatic (the very aspect I don't like about any kind of system). You never cease to cap other aspects of the contest (basic shit like total results between 2 teams the last 10 meetings - generally a space of time that encompasses the last 2 seasons, then the rest angle for both teams, the injury situations). I'm saying this because while it's 101, it always applies no matter what strong single trend I might post, I never intend it to be used as a single or solitary guide to base a bet on. I always advocate looking at other factors to see whether they back up that trend, or whether they present inertia to it.

Quick example I just looked up: Last 10 meetings - 3-1 to Under in ORL, 4-2 to Over in WAS. That would've automatically given me pause because it's giving a not so subtle hint as to which venue they prefer to score at.
 
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