Fresno State To Grind Out Cover In Slugfest At USC
Fresno State at USC
When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NCAAF Pick: Bulldogs ATS & Under
Odds And Basic Facts
USC opened as 10.5 point favorites and the spread has shifted three points in their favor. One key trend that tells us that underdog bettors won't need those three points is the following: in the past two seasons, Fresno State is 8-0 ATS as an underdog (including two bowl games). The Bulldogs thrive in the underdog role, having achieved five upset wins in those eight opportunities.
Fresno State will have an extra chip on its shoulder. 22 different Bulldogs come from a hometown within 50 miles of USC's campus. Besides two that received an offer from USC, 20 players will want to prove USC wrong for overlooking them. Their last California opponent from the Pac-12 was UCLA, which they slammed 38-14 as two-point favorites last year.
Fresno State's Defense Doesn't Skip A Beat
Last year, run defense was a huge question mark for Fresno State because of the defensive line's absence of returning starters. It ended up being a strength, though, under the team's now second-year defensive coordinator Bert Watts. Fresno State ranked 26th nationally in allowing 3.7 YPC and every starter from last year's defensive line returns. The only notable loss is the switch of Mykal Walker from defensive lineman back to his natural position of linebacker.
Behind an ever stronger Bulldog defensive line, Fresno State's run defense will be crucial to covering against USC because, last year, the Trojans were 2-7 ATS when running for fewer than five YPC. USC's offensive line suffered from lack of chemistry last year and ranked 86th in stuff rate and 112th in power success rate, meaning that it often failed to help its running backs in short yardage situations and in making it back to the line of scrimmage. I think chemistry will be an even bigger issue because offensive line coach Tim Drevno has zero experience in an air raid offense, which USC's new offensive coordinator is installing.
A lack of run game means more weight on the shoulders of USC quarterback JT Daniels. The rising sophomore will need to grow a lot as he was continually shaky under pressure, struggled to understand more complicated schemes, and generally showed difficulty in accuracy and execution, as evidenced by his sub-60 percent completion rate and 10 interceptions to 14 touchdowns. Coaches, among other observers, have commented that Daniels tends to overanalyze situations and fails to think quickly. He'll need to completely annihilate that habit to succeed in an offensive system that requires quickly identifying the open receiver and making quick passes.
Fresno State's pass defense ranked among the best in the nation in several categories, for example ninth in opposing passer rating. The secondary returns top veteran corner Jaron Bryant and fellow veteran starter JuJu Hughes at strong safety. Both combined for 20 pass breakups and five interceptions last year. While those are technically the only two returning starters, former UCLA commit Chris Gaston appeared in every game last year at cornerback. Wylan Free, who also appeared in every game last year, was a USC commit and will complement Hughes at free safety. In the secondary and elsewhere, Fresno State's ability to rotate in defenders helps make the entire defense more prepared for the upcoming opener.
USC's Defense Contains An Unchallenging Offense
Quarterback Marcus McMaryion was the heart of a Fresno State offense that was relatively pass-happy and that he led with 25 touchdowns to five interceptions. Jorge Reyna will take his place after attempting 12 passes last year spread out between four different games. The Bulldog pass attack will also miss someone who's arguably even more difficult to replace: top receiver KeeSean Johnson, who led the team with 95 receptions and 1,340 yards, more than doubling the second-leading pass-catcher's yardage total. That second-leading patcher -- tight end Jared Rice-- is back, but Fresno State also misses its second-leading wide receiver.
Rice will be the focus of Fresno State's offense --it won't be the ground attack which will miss four starting offensive linemen, including first- and second-team All-Mountain West guys, and will return only 31 career starts. USC's defensive line promises to be a force in the backfield against a weakened offensive line that is a shadow of prior veteran Fresno State units. USC's d-line lost only one player and comes back with significant talent. One notable player will be Jay Tufele, who was named to the preseason All- Pac-12 team for his game-changing plays and generally strong campaign last year as a redshirt freshman plus the rave reviews that he received practicing in the Spring with first-teamers. Another highly promising defensive lineman is former four-star recruit Drake Jackson, who likewise received very strong reviews for the havoc he created in camp and for his overall, unique physical skill set. He seems ready to make an immediate impact.
Conclusion
Fresno State's offense will stutter with its inexperience at quarterback and regression in protection and pass-catching. All that only tells me that the team measures about equal to a USC squad that is nonetheless favored by about two touchdowns. The Trojans will likewise struggle to move the ball thanks to a strong Fresno State defense. Both defenses will do the most to prevent the opposing offense from finding rhythm by dominating the line of scrimmage.
Fresno State at USC
When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NCAAF Pick: Bulldogs ATS & Under
Odds And Basic Facts
USC opened as 10.5 point favorites and the spread has shifted three points in their favor. One key trend that tells us that underdog bettors won't need those three points is the following: in the past two seasons, Fresno State is 8-0 ATS as an underdog (including two bowl games). The Bulldogs thrive in the underdog role, having achieved five upset wins in those eight opportunities.
Fresno State will have an extra chip on its shoulder. 22 different Bulldogs come from a hometown within 50 miles of USC's campus. Besides two that received an offer from USC, 20 players will want to prove USC wrong for overlooking them. Their last California opponent from the Pac-12 was UCLA, which they slammed 38-14 as two-point favorites last year.
Fresno State's Defense Doesn't Skip A Beat
Last year, run defense was a huge question mark for Fresno State because of the defensive line's absence of returning starters. It ended up being a strength, though, under the team's now second-year defensive coordinator Bert Watts. Fresno State ranked 26th nationally in allowing 3.7 YPC and every starter from last year's defensive line returns. The only notable loss is the switch of Mykal Walker from defensive lineman back to his natural position of linebacker.
Behind an ever stronger Bulldog defensive line, Fresno State's run defense will be crucial to covering against USC because, last year, the Trojans were 2-7 ATS when running for fewer than five YPC. USC's offensive line suffered from lack of chemistry last year and ranked 86th in stuff rate and 112th in power success rate, meaning that it often failed to help its running backs in short yardage situations and in making it back to the line of scrimmage. I think chemistry will be an even bigger issue because offensive line coach Tim Drevno has zero experience in an air raid offense, which USC's new offensive coordinator is installing.
A lack of run game means more weight on the shoulders of USC quarterback JT Daniels. The rising sophomore will need to grow a lot as he was continually shaky under pressure, struggled to understand more complicated schemes, and generally showed difficulty in accuracy and execution, as evidenced by his sub-60 percent completion rate and 10 interceptions to 14 touchdowns. Coaches, among other observers, have commented that Daniels tends to overanalyze situations and fails to think quickly. He'll need to completely annihilate that habit to succeed in an offensive system that requires quickly identifying the open receiver and making quick passes.
Fresno State's pass defense ranked among the best in the nation in several categories, for example ninth in opposing passer rating. The secondary returns top veteran corner Jaron Bryant and fellow veteran starter JuJu Hughes at strong safety. Both combined for 20 pass breakups and five interceptions last year. While those are technically the only two returning starters, former UCLA commit Chris Gaston appeared in every game last year at cornerback. Wylan Free, who also appeared in every game last year, was a USC commit and will complement Hughes at free safety. In the secondary and elsewhere, Fresno State's ability to rotate in defenders helps make the entire defense more prepared for the upcoming opener.
USC's Defense Contains An Unchallenging Offense
Quarterback Marcus McMaryion was the heart of a Fresno State offense that was relatively pass-happy and that he led with 25 touchdowns to five interceptions. Jorge Reyna will take his place after attempting 12 passes last year spread out between four different games. The Bulldog pass attack will also miss someone who's arguably even more difficult to replace: top receiver KeeSean Johnson, who led the team with 95 receptions and 1,340 yards, more than doubling the second-leading pass-catcher's yardage total. That second-leading patcher -- tight end Jared Rice-- is back, but Fresno State also misses its second-leading wide receiver.
Rice will be the focus of Fresno State's offense --it won't be the ground attack which will miss four starting offensive linemen, including first- and second-team All-Mountain West guys, and will return only 31 career starts. USC's defensive line promises to be a force in the backfield against a weakened offensive line that is a shadow of prior veteran Fresno State units. USC's d-line lost only one player and comes back with significant talent. One notable player will be Jay Tufele, who was named to the preseason All- Pac-12 team for his game-changing plays and generally strong campaign last year as a redshirt freshman plus the rave reviews that he received practicing in the Spring with first-teamers. Another highly promising defensive lineman is former four-star recruit Drake Jackson, who likewise received very strong reviews for the havoc he created in camp and for his overall, unique physical skill set. He seems ready to make an immediate impact.
Conclusion
Fresno State's offense will stutter with its inexperience at quarterback and regression in protection and pass-catching. All that only tells me that the team measures about equal to a USC squad that is nonetheless favored by about two touchdowns. The Trojans will likewise struggle to move the ball thanks to a strong Fresno State defense. Both defenses will do the most to prevent the opposing offense from finding rhythm by dominating the line of scrimmage.
Oops. My badp
let‘s cash on this week‘s games tho
