Fresno St. -7 @ Toledo

[BigRaktor]

I already played this last night at -7...I think Toledo is crap, but I'm worried that FresnoSt comes out flat after the near upset of Wisky. I'd love to hear other opinions on this matchup. I'd put FresnoSt on par w/ AZ this year...I hate resorting to A_B_C capping angles, but its usually always part of the puzzle.

Who takes this tilt? :moosefukin: or :moose:

:cheers:

 

[broadwayjoe]

i don't think that fresno is necessarily on par with zona, but for argument's sake let's say that they are...toledo was traveling 2000+ miles to arizona that week. fresno is now the one traveling 2000+ miles to toledo...and these are ALREADY two teams that play differently away/home. toledo playing a night game on espn in the glass bowl hosting a ranked opponent (that prob shouldn't be ranked to begin with)...always a tough matchup. different mindset as fresno just failed to win a close game that was one of the biggest in school history, and now travel to ohio (yay), whereas toledo just buried a conference foe on the road and are excited to be in their first home game of the season on national tv. toledo also matches up with scheme and talent much better in this matchup than they did vs zona...extremely difficult to say the games are similar at all...proven by the 15 point difference in the line that was set for the two matchups...my .02 anyway

 

[RambleOn]

Rak, I'd take Toledo at anything over 7, for all the reasons broadway joe expounded on. I just can't bet Fresno after that loss in this situation.

 

[VooDoo Doll]

First Post, but a Fresno State grad. I have watched this team for close to thirty years now.
This is a really good Fresno squad, one of the best in my opinion. That being said, Fresno's QB is garbage, yes his numbers are decent but this kid is not a winner. He is not the guy you want to have the ball when you need a play.
Fresno is a giant killer, they play to the competition. Always a live dog!!!! They could be the worst favorite in the world.
I am staying away for obvious reasons, hope this may have helped. GL

 

[BigRaktor]

I appreciate the feedback guys...I guess I'm locked in at -7...if I need to middle out I might. I like how Frenso handled Rutgers on the road, and I want to assume that Rutgers is better than Toledo. However, right now I just don't know. If I get too worried I might just sprinkle on the Toledo ML

 

[VooDoo Doll]

I can see the value in your play! It just depends on moral. Can Pat Hill have these kids re-focused. Tough for a BC buster to take it's loss and move on.

 

[SportsNut]

I already played this last night at -7...I think Toledo is crap, but I'm worried that FresnoSt comes out flat after the near upset of Wisky. I'd love to hear other opinions on this matchup. I'd put FresnoSt on par w/ AZ this year...I hate resorting to A_B_C capping angles, but its usually always part of the puzzle.

Who takes this tilt? :moosefukin: or :moose:

:cheers:

Why would they be flat ? I understand your point and angle but what I am trying to convey is Wisky was what 1 or 2 pt favs ? It wasnt going to be an upset really or at least in the sense I think of an upset . Especially people talking BCS for Fresno . That may be the disappoint the cloud there were floating on talking perfect season. I gotta feel that Fresno felt like it was on par with Wisky before and after the game. Dont see any sort of down mentality due to the missed opp at beating Wisky . Along your line of thought my concern would be can the shake the loss of because they were thining big BOWL this year?

Honestly , I dont see any sort of hangover effect mentally or emotionally . Fresno State HC Pat Hill doesnt seem to be the guy to allow that to happen . I do think Fresno was talking out there ass abit this season . Its great to say will play anyone and anywhere but lets be realistic . He played some name programs early in 08 who are retooling and reorganizing there programs IMO. How bout the concentrate on beating Boise St a few times and get away from the bitch role they be playing to the Smurfs ....and Fresno was seriously outplayed in the 1st H @ Rutgers so maybe week 2 was some karma balancing the scales..

I agree with VooDoo Doll on his QB opinion just not consistent enough or even "special" in terms of ability . I think Broadway and Ramble have great points about the travel and situation . I also think saying Fresno handled Rutgers is a HUGE OVERSTATEMENT . Rutgers probably should have about 24 pts on the board in the 1st H but did everything imagineable to fuck it up from what I recall. They missed 2 FGS one a chip shot , had a TOD around the Fresno 5 , had a TD pass of a WR fingertips , just disgusting (and yes I had RU) . The RU defense really stiffled the Bulldog offense and the game was just misleading ...dont know enough about Toledo to say if they are on par with rutgers but the Scarlett Knights have some work to do....

BOL. Not even sure I play this game . I do worry about the Bulldogs travel and Toledo has some great situational angles behind it . I think Fresno is more likely to play its best game of the season here after 2 les then stellar efforts but situationally the chips are stacked against them. Guess I have some work to do as on the surface basically what I expected from the # .....:cheers:Glad to see you around bro...gotta do some Toledo research you guys have me interested now..

 

[RetroVK]

For me this is a "want to " game.

If fresno st wants to they will go out and cover this game. My concern is that i think it is less than 50/50 that they actually want to. Historically this team collapses after a big loss.

2007
disappointing overtime loss to tamu .. they followed it with a loss at oregon 21-52. granted a tough spot , but playing in toledo is not an easy spot.

2006
lost at washington by 1 point 20-21. followed it up with 23-35 loss to colorado st as 13.5 pt favs. ...proceeded to drop several more in a row.

2005
lost by 8, 42-50 in the classic game vs usc which helped reggie bush win the most undeserved heisman trophy in history. proceeded to lose their next two games outright as as 15 and 23.5 point favorites.

They just don't seem to rebound well.

if they do show up and play their A game then i think you have a good shot but i wouldn't expect that.

 

[SportsNut]

Great point VK. The collapse in 2005 was terrible and once could understand the next week being out of it mentally . The next 2 opponents were obviously inferior by the spreads but it was even much worse when you look at the programs ..great point ...

 

[BigRaktor]

SportsNut...good to see your thoughts on this...you always break it down! Best of luck w/ your plays this week!

vegaskyle...damn...that's good shit, but not what I want to hear...maybe I'll hedge it on ML and spread...

:cheers:

 

[ghostnmyhead]

voodoo sumed it up perfectly. best of luck my friend

 

[RambleOn]

For me this is a "want to " game.

If fresno st wants to they will go out and cover this game. My concern is that i think it is less than 50/50 that they actually want to. Historically this team collapses after a big loss.

2007
disappointing overtime loss to tamu .. they followed it with a loss at oregon 21-52. granted a tough spot , but playing in toledo is not an easy spot.

2006
lost at washington by 1 point 20-21. followed it up with 23-35 loss to colorado st as 13.5 pt favs. ...proceeded to drop several more in a row.

2005
lost by 8, 42-50 in the classic game vs usc which helped reggie bush win the most undeserved heisman trophy in history. proceeded to lose their next two games outright as as 15 and 23.5 point favorites.

They just don't seem to rebound well.

if they do show up and play their A game then i think you have a good shot but i wouldn't expect that.

Nice work, Kyle. That certainly pushes me more towards playing Toledo. Like I said I want +7.5 or better we'll have to see where the line goes. :shake:

 

[LLXC]

Fresno St might lay a crap.

 

[jimbof20]

im on toledo

 

[Matador]

For me this is a "want to " game.

If fresno st wants to they will go out and cover this game. My concern is that i think it is less than 50/50 that they actually want to. Historically this team collapses after a big loss.

2007
disappointing overtime loss to tamu .. they followed it with a loss at oregon 21-52. granted a tough spot , but playing in toledo is not an easy spot.

2006
lost at washington by 1 point 20-21. followed it up with 23-35 loss to colorado st as 13.5 pt favs. ...proceeded to drop several more in a row.

2005
lost by 8, 42-50 in the classic game vs usc which helped reggie bush win the most undeserved heisman trophy in history. proceeded to lose their next two games outright as as 15 and 23.5 point favorites.

They just don't seem to rebound well.

if they do show up and play their A game then i think you have a good shot but i wouldn't expect that.

I keep seeing this argument, and it is a good one, BUT.......

2005 (September)
lost by 3 @ Oregon, heartbreaker.........proceeded to annihilate, guess who? TOLEDO, 44-14 the next time out in a game that really wasn't that close.

Yes, those were the shadiest days of the MAC, and betting trends were very suspicious, but conspiracy theories aside, they didn't let the Oregon loss affect them, so you never know........

Also, last year they never had a chance @ Oregon with the defense they put on the field. Oregon was as good as anyone in the country on offense when that game was played. Toledo they aint.