French Open Play

[horses]

This will be my only play of the tourney, as I don't (or haven't) bet individual matches; I may hedge if given the opportunity.

Rafa +255 to win the tourney

Realize he didn't look good v Murray today in the Madrid Open Final, but he did at least make the final playing pretty good tennis. It's all about confidence for the Spanish Bull and he has one more tune-up in Rome, where Nole will also participate, to regain more of it. I agree he shouldn't be the favorite in Paris but I would still take him over guys like Ferrer and Murray in a best of 5, and I'll take my chances along the way as he won't even necessarily get a great seed at Roland Garros. Bottom line is I'll pay to see someone beat Rafa in a tourney he is currently 66-1 in. Pressure will be on Nole if he plays Nadal at any given time given the career Grand Slam angle headed into the tourney.

 

[P-Unit]

Murray at 15-1 is a much better option (depending on the draw) relative to how he's playing right now. He's been on fire.

 

[GatorsLeafsBills]

Hard to bet against him at the French Open.

Him being 7th in the rankings could change a lot of stuff though. If he gets a bad draw he could have to go against all the other big 3 to win it.

 

[STEED]

:shake:

 

[horses]

Murray at 15-1 is a much better option (depending on the draw) relative to how he's playing right now. He's been on fire.

I made a decision to watch the Madrid Open Final before betting on Nadal to win the French Open; Nadal was a big enough favorite over Murray where I didn't think his odds to win the French would come down that much from +220 if he beat Murray in Madrid. He lost and the odds went up and I bet it. To my knowledge, Murray was never 15-1 after his victory in Madrid and he currently sits at 9-1.

I give Murray credit; he hasn't lost since his wedding. Examining these wins, shows he won a ATP Series 250 Title in Munich where the best players he beat were Agut and Kohlschreiber, guys that will be lucky to get past the 3rd round in Paris. Props to Murray for only losing one set in Madrid (to Kohlschreiber) and beating Nadal handily in the final. Also beating Nishikori and Raonic in straight sets is somewhat notable. That said, I don't think Murray has it in him to win a tournament like Roland Garros, which are best of 5 matches on the clay. His best shot is if Nadal beats Djokovic and then Murray beats Nadal. Djokovic positively owns Murray right now having beaten him 7 or 8 times in a row; no way he loses a best of 5 to him on clay with a career GS on the line. Just my opinion there. As far as Nadal goes, I thought he did more to lose in Madrid than Murray did to win; if Nadal can find his form in the next 2-3 weeks (read: confidence), I think he would handle Murray in Paris. I am basically betting on that.

The draw is obviously a key as well as has been noted.

Thanks for the thoughts.

 

[P-Unit]

I made a decision to watch the Madrid Open Final before betting on Nadal to win the French Open; Nadal was a big enough favorite over Murray where I didn't think his odds to win the French would come down that much from +220 if he beat Murray in Madrid. He lost and the odds went up and I bet it. To my knowledge, Murray was never 15-1 after his victory in Madrid and he currently sits at 9-1.

I give Murray credit; he hasn't lost since his wedding. Examining these wins, shows he won a ATP Series 250 Title in Munich where the best players he beat were Agut and Kohlschreiber, guys that will be lucky to get past the 3rd round in Paris. Props to Murray for only losing one set in Madrid (to Kohlschreiber) and beating Nadal handily in the final. Also beating Nishikori and Raonic in straight sets is somewhat notable. That said, I don't think Murray has it in him to win a tournament like Roland Garros, which are best of 5 matches on the clay. His best shot is if Nadal beats Djokovic and then Murray beats Nadal. Djokovic positively owns Murray right now having beaten him 7 or 8 times in a row; no way he loses a best of 5 to him on clay with a career GS on the line. Just my opinion there. As far as Nadal goes, I thought he did more to lose in Madrid than Murray did to win; if Nadal can find his form in the next 2-3 weeks (read: confidence), I think he would handle Murray in Paris. I am basically betting on that.

The draw is obviously a key as well as has been noted.

Thanks for the thoughts.

Agree on Joker owning Murray. If they are in opposite sides then I'll take a look. My local has Murray at 15-1 right now. Rafa only +175 so you definitely have better odds than me on that one.

Good discussion :cheers3:
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[TH="class: cutoff"]Cut Off[/TH]
[TH="class: eventnumber, align: center"]#[/TH]
[TH="class: description"]Description[/TH]
[TH="class: generalodds"]Odds [/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="colspan: 100%"]ATP - ODDS TO WIN 2015 FRENCH OPEN - May 18
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: tntheader, bgcolor: #D3D3D3"]
[TH]MAY 18 - 7:00 AM[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3"]TO WIN 2015 FRENCH OPEN - ALL ACTION[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17101[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]NOVAK DJOKOVIC[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]-120<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17101_1705887_0_-120" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17102[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]RAFAEL NADAL[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+175<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17102_1705887_0_175" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17103[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]STAN WAWRINKA[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+1750<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17103_1705887_0_1750" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17104[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]ROGER FEDERER[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+1750<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17104_1705887_0_1750" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17105[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]KEI NISHIKORI[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+1250<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17105_1705887_0_1250" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17106[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]ANDY MURRAY[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+1500<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17106_1705887_0_1500" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17107[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17107_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
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[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17108[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]DAVID FERRER[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17108_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17109[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]GRIGOR DIMITROV[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+3300<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17109_1705887_0_3300" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17110[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]GAEL MONFILS[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17110_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17111[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]MARIN CILIC[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17111_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17112[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]JO-WILFRIED TSONGA[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17112_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
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[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17113[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]ERNESTS GULBIS[/TD]
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[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17114[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]MILOS RAONIC[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17114_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17115[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]TOMAS BERDYCH[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+5000<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17115_1705887_0_5000" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
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[TR="class: trtntdetail, bgcolor: #D9E3EA"]
[TD="class: cutoff"][/TD]
[TD="class: eventnumber, align: center"]17116[/TD]
[TD="class: description"]FIELD (ANY OTHER)[/TD]
[TD="class: generalodds, align: right"]+500<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="17116_1705887_0_500" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 3px;">[/TD]
[/TR]
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[horses]

Well I certainly wouldn't blame you for maybe taking a shot with Murray at those odds; not sure how he can pay more than Nishikori.

 

[horses]

Just a quick update:

Holding a Tsonga ticket would be nice; that is where the value truly was. He has a great shot at making the final.

As far as my Nadal bet goes, not much to update. He got a bad draw for my bet, getting Joker in the QF's; no opportunity to hedge, even though I think the #1 seed is priced appropriately. I have watched a lot of Nadal's matches, and while he is rolling and probably gaining confidence, too many of his ground strokes are barely making it past the service line. That has to change on Wednesday or Joker will feast on those short balls.

I'll say Joker in 4 sets and my bet dies here.

 

[P-Unit]

ya, Jo looks really good. Very impressed with him today. I did grab some Murray +1500 - small wager for fun. should be an interesting tourney the rest of the way. This tournament has kicked my ass up until today, frankly.

 

[horses]

Sorry to hear that, P; seems like the 'dogs have been barking on the fairer sex's side.

Good luck with Murray (though if Joker wins tomorrow, I probably want to see him get his career slam and stay in tune for a calendar one as well).

Last player to win the Australian and the French the same year was Courier way back in the early 90's; that is amazing to me considering this is truly the Golden Age of the men's game. But alas, the only year Rafa won in Aussy was '09....the year he lost at the French.