*** Freak Pics *** (Week 2)

Jimmydafreak

Jimmydafreak

Pretty much a regular
Had a good Week 1, but a couple of bad breaks kept it from being a "Monster" week.

Reminder: The order in which I list games in their respective time categories is the order in which I like the play. For example, the play listed on top is my favorite. The play listed second is my second favorite, and so on. FYI, South Alabama @ Kent is my favorite game of the week.

Week 1 Results:

Best Bets - 2 & 1
Regular Bets - 7 & 4
UDML - 0 & 1

Parlay:

1U - 3-Teamer - South Alabama PK/Michigan State +14/Auburn -29.5
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.5U - 2-team UDML Paying 21:1 - Virginia Tech/Michigan State
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Thursday Night

3Us - Arizona -7 (Even) @ Texas-San Antonio
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Friday Night

3Us - Washington State -2.5 @ Nevada
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Saturday Early:

5Us - South Alabama PK @ Kent State *** Best Bet ***
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3Us - Akron +15.5 @ Penn State
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Saturday Afternoon:

3Us - Ohio @ Kentucky -12.5
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3Us - Maryland -10 @ South Florida
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Saturday Evening:

5Us - Michigan State +13 @ Oregon *** Best Bet ***
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5Us San Jose State @ Auburn -29.5 *** Best Bet ***

3Us - Virginia Tech @ Ohio State UNDER 24 (1st Half)
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3Us - Virginia Tech +12 @ Ohio State

3Us - BYU @ Texas UNDER 23 .5 (1st Half)
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For those that missed the line on the SJST/Auburn game, I now like OVER 66.5 more than the current line (32.5). I am not personally playing this.

3Us - San Jose State @ Auburn OVER 66.5
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3Us - East Carolina @ South Carolina - 13.5
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.5U - Michigan State UDML +364 @ Oregon
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.5U - Virginia Tech UDML +344 @ Ohio State

Saturday Late:

3Us - Colorado State +10 @ Boise State

3Us - Air Force @ Wyoming ML (Even)
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Adding:

Saturday Evening:

3Us - East Carolina @ South Carolina - 13.5

3Us - Virginia Tech +12 @ Ohio State

Saturday Late:

3Us - Colorado State +10 @ Boise State
 
Good to see I'm liking a lot that you are on already. I think we have the same overall thoughts about South Bama and Michigan St judging by previous posts. Va Tech yes. And CSU yes....I was actually real close to putting a long shot on them in the MWC. They will be a tough out
 
HammersSpreads said:
Good to see I'm liking a lot that you are on already. I think we have the same overall thoughts about South Bama and Michigan St judging by previous posts. Va Tech yes. And CSU yes....I was actually real close to putting a long shot on them in the MWC. They will be a tough out
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5* Dee Hart has taken that offense to another level. Boise probably wins the game, but I think CSU will take them down to the wire. 10 is too many IMO.

I don't have a strong opinion on the Michigan/Notre Dame game. I will say that Everett Golson look very impressive in week 1 albeit against Rice. I think Notre Dame probably wins the game at home, but I can't lay 4.5 points.
 
This may be it for my Saturday plays.

Adding:

 Saturday Early:

3Us - Akron +15.5 @ Penn State

Saturday Afternoon:

3Us - Maryland -10 @ South Florida

 
Adding:

Monday Night

3Us - Miami @ Louisville UNDER 27.5 (1st Half)

Thursday Night

3Us - Arizona -7 (Even) @ Texas-San Antonio

Friday Night

3Us - Washington State -2.5 @ Nevada


 
Adding:

.5U - Virginia Tech UDML +344 @ Ohio State

I will also add the 1st half UNDER in this game as a "Best Bet" when it is released.

I will also play Michigan State on the ML when that is released.

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Just missed the number on Kentucky. Moments before I was going to lock it in @ -10, the touts pushed it down to -12.5. I still like the play a lot though.

My only other play this week will be the 1st half UNDER in the Virginia Tech/Ohio State game provided the number is not totally ridiculous. I'm looking for 24 or better. Not sure I will get that though. Will play @ 23, but won't go any lower than that.

With QB David Ash and C Dominic Espinosa both out, the UNDER in the BYU/Texas game is also worth a look.

Adding:

.5U - Michigan State UDML +364 @ Oregon

.5U - UDML Parlay Paying 21:1 - Virginia Tech/Michigan State

3Us - Ohio @ Kentucky -12.5

3Us - Air Force @ Wyoming ML (Even)

 
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Agree 100% with you on the BYU/Texas U. I'm looking forward to seeing that total as I think that should be low scoring. Prob be my only totals play this week. BOL jimmy. I'll be on many of the same most likely
 
trying to temper my excitement with kentucky but i think they put one on ohio. run-first mac teams that can't pass or protect are gonna struggle vs the bobcats dline, but that's not kentucky's problem. ksu's reardon was 30 of 40 but his wrs were wrapped up pretty quick. uk had 6 plays of +40 yards last week and i see that continuing this week. i also didn't see any real threats on the ohio offense. papi white and daz patterson are little guys with some quicks but nothing the cats shouldn't handle. the wrs are not a concern. uk's best t darrian miller is back off suspension. i wish badet was back but oh well. i could go on and on because i really like what stoops is doing but i'll stop. good luck to you jimmy.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Your 1st half unders are bread and butter. Navy jumped right out at me. Any thoughts? Thanks jimmy
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Triple option teams offer some of the best wagering opportunities in college football, so I look at them pretty closely every week. I will usually have a triple option team on my card every week. One of the main things I look for is how much experience the triple option opponent has at defending the triple option. In the case of Temple, they held Army to 14 points last season so, a) they have some experience defending it, and b) they were relatively successful in doing so. Moreover, Temple is at home getting 3 points. Because of that, I would lean toward the home dog Temple.

Here is a tip that is almost always free money when it comes to triple option teams. When triple option teams play each other, bet the 1st half UNDER. I'm too lazy to figure out what the winning percentage is on that betting angle is, but I promise you it is extremely high.
 
HammersSpreads said:
Agree 100% with you on the BYU/Texas U. I'm looking forward to seeing that total as I think that should be low scoring. Prob be my only totals play this week. BOL jimmy. I'll be on many of the same most likely
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I doubt the oddsmakers will do us any big favors on the BYU/Texas total, but it is certainly worth a look.
 
dickydunn said:
trying to temper my excitement with kentucky but i think they put one on ohio. run-first mac teams that can't pass or protect are gonna struggle vs the bobcats dline, but that's not kentucky's problem. ksu's reardon was 30 of 40 but his wrs were wrapped up pretty quick. uk had 6 plays of +40 yards last week and i see that continuing this week. i also didn't see any real threats on the ohio offense. papi white and daz patterson are little guys with some quicks but nothing the cats shouldn't handle. the wrs are not a concern. uk's best t darrian miller is back off suspension. i wish badet was back but oh well. i could go on and on because i really like what stoops is doing but i'll stop. good luck to you jimmy.
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I really didn't get around to capping the Missouri and Kentucky games until this morning. I decided to stay away from Mizzou, but really like what I see from Kentucky. Unfortunately I was too slow on the trigger finger to get the -10 which was readily available all morning. But I agree with you on this game. My feelings about Kentucky are very similar to my feelings on Maryland. I think both blow their opponents out of the stadium this week. I think both are great wagers.
 
if you got time, i'd love to hear your thoughts on sparty. might be the deepest D line in the country going against one of the best o lines in the country and a heisman hopeful.
 
clowncar said:
Our cards are very similar. .... but then I hit CSU/Boise ... explain that one to me
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This might be my worst play of the week.

I'm not sure I can make a logical, numbers-based argument to support this play, but I can certainly make a good "irrational exuberance" one.

On paper Boise appears to be the better team across the board. Not only that, but they played a much stronger opponent in week one than did CSU, AND they're playing at home where they are virtually unbeatable. Logic, therefore, finds that Boise is the play here, and quite frankly if I had a mulligan, I could probably find a better game to bet.

I have been a huge Coach McElwain critic going back to his offensive coordinator days at Alabama, but at some point last season I had to admit to myself that I was wrong about him. I don't know what he has done to that team, but whatever it is, he has those guys believing they can beat the New England Patriots. The CSU players can't run very fast or jump very high, but those guys will run into a burning building for Coach Mac right now, and I'm enjoying riding the wave. I realize this is not the soundest wagering strategy, but sometimes you just have to go with your gut.

Ultimately I think Boise finds a way to win the game, but through pure grit and determination, I think CSU plays them tough and keeps it within the number.

Now I'm going to watch Rudy one more time.
 
Elbutre88 said:
if you got time, i'd love to hear your thoughts on sparty. might be the deepest D line in the country going against one of the best o lines in the country and a heisman hopeful.
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My thoughts are pretty simple actually, and it's based on Oregon's abysmal track record of playing good defensive teams that have had additional time to prepare for their offense. Michigan State is essentially a Stanford clone, and we all know that Stanford is Oregon's Kryptonite.

I hate that this game is being played in Oregon, but nevertheless, I think this is a terrible matchup for Oregon. I think this is a very winnable game for MSU.
 
Texas under? Oh yes.

Daje Johnson is also being sat for another game by Strong. He's our only true playmaker on offense. Our defense will play lights out on Saturday, I'm confident of that. Many of them were on the field last year during that bloodbath in Provo, and Strong has been showing them video of Taysom Hill since January.

I doubt you'll see 40 total in this game, feels like a 20-16 game.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
My thoughts are pretty simple actually, and it's based on Oregon's abysmal track record of playing good defensive teams that have had additional time to prepare for their offense. Michigan State is essentially a Stanford clone, and we all know that Stanford is Oregon's Kryptonite.

I hate that this game is being played in Oregon, but nevertheless, I think this is a terrible matchup for Oregon. I think this is a very winnable game for MSU.
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funny, i thought the same thing, just backwards. oregon has seen msu before (stanford) and in their last game the adjustments the ducks made were impressive. the comeback was happening in a real way until mariota got hurt. how many times has MSU seen the ducks? don't get me wrong, i've been rethinking this bet ever since i made it, and 13 might be the dumbest number out there. and seeing your best bet the other way didn't exactly gimme confidence. GL on it jimmy, i may be running away.
 
Elbutre88 said:
funny, i thought the same thing, just backwards. oregon has seen msu before (stanford) and in their last game the adjustments the ducks made were impressive. the comeback was happening in a real way until mariota got hurt. how many times has MSU seen the ducks? don't get me wrong, i've been rethinking this bet ever since i made it, and 13 might be the dumbest number out there. and seeing your best bet the other way didn't exactly gimme confidence. GL on it jimmy, i may be running away.
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You have a point. I certainly never looked at it that way. If we look at Oregon's track record in these types of games, however, it doesn't favor your premise. That's not to say it won't come to fruition this weekend, because Mariotta is certainly a scary guy. I guess I'll have to pay to see it with my own eyes if it does.
 
amen jimmy, can't say i'm in disagreement with you. i will say that i/m really high on the ducks receivers this yea, more so than anyone else i've talked to, and that might be why i'm so upside down here. if these guys don't show up like i think they will, it could get gross, quick. i think allen and stanford could really make the spartans pay, though.
 
Elbutre88 said:
amen jimmy, can't say i'm in disagreement with you. i will say that i/m really high on the ducks receivers this yea, more so than anyone else i've talked to, and that might be why i'm so upside down here. if these guys don't show up like i think they will, it could get gross, quick. i think allen and stanford could really make the spartans pay, though.
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The big question is "can MSU's defenders handle Oregon's speed on a fast track?" If not, this game could get away from them in a hurry. If, however, MSU's front 7 can consistently get penetration to disrupt the mesh points, then Oregon may be in trouble. MSU's offense must also be successful in executing a ball-control offense. Either way, it should be a great game.
 
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Texas / BYU under 48?

Yes please, Costanza.

Unless there are multiple defensive TDs, I don't see this one crossing 44.

This is a solid card. On most of these. GL jimmy.
 
Vasherized said:
Texas / BYU under 48?

Yes please, Costanza.

Unless there are multiple defensive TDs, I don't see this one crossing 44.

This is a solid card. On most of these. GL jimmy.
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Absolutely UNDER. BYU/Texas is still off the board at my book, so if you're able to bet it, I would jump on it.
 
brsport13 said:
Is BYU/Texas u47 a good bet?
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Definitely think so. The only thing that scares me a bit is how clean Texas is on offense with Swoopes under center. Sorta fear some short fields for BYU with turnovers. But as I've mentioned before, this is a huge game for our defense, and short fields may not necessarily translate into BYU touchdowns.
 
brsport13 said:
Bookmaker has it I think
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Yeah, Bookmaker has it @ 46.5.

I probably made a mistake waiting on the Virginia Tech/Ohio State 1st Half UNDER. The line has dropped from 48.5 to 47. I like this one as much, if not more than BYU/Texas. I don't think either offense will be very effective moving the ball.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
This might be my worst play of the week.

I'm not sure I can make a logical, numbers-based argument to support this play, but I can certainly make a good "irrational exuberance" one.

On paper Boise appears to be the better team across the board. Not only that, but they played a much stronger opponent in week one than did CSU, AND they're playing at home where they are virtually unbeatable. Logic, therefore, finds that Boise is the play here, and quite frankly if I had a mulligan, I could probably find a better game to bet.

I have been a huge Coach McElwain critic going back to his offensive coordinator days at Alabama, but at some point last season I had to admit to myself that I was wrong about him. I don't know what he has done to that team, but whatever it is, he has those guys believing they can beat the New England Patriots. The CSU players can't run very fast or jump very high, but those guys will run into a burning building for Coach Mac right now, and I'm enjoying riding the wave. I realize this is not the soundest wagering strategy, but sometimes you just have to go with your gut.

Ultimately I think Boise finds a way to win the game, but through pure grit and determination, I think CSU plays them tough and keeps it within the number.

Now I'm going to watch Rudy one more time.
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Nothing wrong with following your instinct. In my case, my numbers win at a higher rate than my "feel" plays but when I get that feeling I have a hard time not betting it. I had that feeling with Miami Florida the other night. I was wrong but I certainly understand that sometimes you have to go with your eyes and feel compared to the boxscore and team data. Though in my defense, when Heaps was beat out by the Frosh, I assumed he threw better than my four year old niece..... bad assumption. At a minimum I thought you would get a better player than Heaps and he has a long ways to go to get to Heaps level. Golden playing him for the future but I don't see that guy developing into a big time player at the college level ..

Sorry .. not sure how I ended up talking about the Miami qb.

And your point about the kids playing hard for a full 60 at CSU is well made. They won't quit when down so holding the other side I am most worried about a weird backdoor .. though personally I think they get their jocks handed to them by a vastly superior team.

If I lose there at least I know the freak is cashing a ticket .. bol
 
clowncar said:
Nothing wrong with following your instinct. In my case, my numbers win at a higher rate than my "feel" plays but when I get that feeling I have a hard time not betting it. I had that feeling with Miami Florida the other night. I was wrong but I certainly understand that sometimes you have to go with your eyes and feel compared to the boxscore and team data. Though in my defense, when Heaps was beat out by the Frosh, I assumed he threw better than my four year old niece..... bad assumption. At a minimum I thought you would get a better player than Heaps and he has a long ways to go to get to Heaps level. Golden playing him for the future but I don't see that guy developing into a big time player at the college level ..

Sorry .. not sure how I ended up talking about the Miami qb.

And your point about the kids playing hard for a full 60 at CSU is well made. They won't quit when down so holding the other side I am most worried about a weird backdoor .. though personally I think they get their jocks handed to them by a vastly superior team.

If I lose there at least I know the freak is cashing a ticket .. bol
Click to expand...

I was on Miami as well, so I feel your pain. When it was evident after one half of football that Louisville had the better offense, defense and coaching staff, I found the wisdom to buy out of that debacle at halftime.

To the latter shortcoming, I felt certain when Miami fell behind in the 2nd half Golden would actually try to win the game by bringing Heaps into the game. As you pointed out, it was bad enough that a QB who is not even close to exhibiting the QB IQ and skill level of Heaps started the game, but to not even try to win the game down the stretch is simply inexcusable.

With respect to CSU, last season Boise pretty much controlled the game throughout until CSU was a 2-point conversion away from the weird backdoor cover of which you speak (if I recall correctly). Although I don't foresee a Boise collapse this season, I do perceive that these are programs (at least for the time being - not necessarily long-term) are on opposite trajectories. Part of the art of wagering (and investing) is having the foresight to spot trends before others do, and before oddsmakers have an opportunity to adjust accordingly. This game has the potential to be a watershed, torch-passing type of a game if CSU could actually waltz into Boise and escape with a victory. As I said previously, I don't really think that will happen, but it certainly would not be beyond the universe of plausibility. And if it is proven that my instincts have lead me astray, well then I will be content with knowing that a certain desert-dog in Sin City will be cashing his ticket.

:shake:
 
Adding:

Saturday Evening:

3Us - Virginia Tech @ Ohio State UNDER 23.5 (1st Half)

3Us - BYU @ Texas UNDER 23 (1st Half)

For those that missed the line on the SJST/Auburn game, I now prefer OVER 66.5 more than the current line (32.5). I am not personally playing this.

3Us - San Jose State @ Auburn OVER 66.5

 
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The good news is when I bomb on weeknight plays, I usually do very well on Saturdays, and vice versa. I never seem to be able to hit both for some reason. So here's to a very profitable Saturday!!!

:cheers3:
 
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