For those interested in some stats/strategies...

Y

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
Take these for what they are worth. Just someone's thoughts/opinions on different betting strategies. There is a lot of good information if you decipher through it...interesting at least:

Guide to Betting Baseball Interleague Games

Interleague Games Data
  • 1st Half of Season [1618-1618, -72.45 units] (-0.022)
  • 2nd half of season [396-396, -12.79 units] (-0.016)
  • National League [991-1065, -117.16 units] (-0.057)
  • American League [1065-991, 29.92 units] (0.015)
  • Divsional Rival [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • Non-Divsional Rival [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • Interleague Game [2056-2056, -87.24 units] (-0.021)
  • As a dog [801-1184, -111.28 units] (-0.056)
  • As a favorite [1255-872, 24.04 units] (0.011)
  • Off a win [1052-1015, -61.27 units] (-0.030)
  • Off a loss [1004-1041, -25.97 units] (-0.013)
  • Off being shut out [97-85, 14.24 units] (0.078)
  • Off scoring DD [189-178, -6.79 units] (-0.019)
  • Series Game 1 [699-699, -29.70 units] (-0.021)
  • Series Game 2 [690-690, -29.09 units] (-0.021)
  • Series Game 3 [667-667, -28.45 units] (-0.021)
  • Series Game 4 [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • At Home [1160-896, 75.04 units] (0.036)
  • On the Road [896-1160, -162.28 units] (-0.079)
  • In the Playoffs [42-42, -2.00 units] (-0.024)
  • Off LL [501-533, 2.38 units] (0.002)
  • Off WW [540-515, -45.47 units] (-0.043)
  • 5+ WL10 [1338-1241, -25.48 units] (-0.010)
  • 7+ WL10 [436-338, 47.21 units] (0.061)
  • <=3 WL10 [356-449, -62.19 units] (-0.077)
  • <=5 WL10 [1222-1287, -52.68 units] (-0.021)
  • Against team off SO [85-97, -21.51 units] (-0.118)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [178-189, -8.45 units] (-0.023)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [336-374, -52.49 units] (-0.074)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [363-325, 22.79 units] (0.033)
  • Off W (G1) [374-336, 22.20 units] (0.031)
  • Off L (G1) [325-363, -51.90 units] (-0.075)
  • 1st Home Series [524-416, 18.57 units] (0.020)
  • 2nd Home Series [430-337, 20.83 units] (0.027)
  • 3rd Home Series [152-104, 30.08 units] (0.117)
  • 4th Home Series [52-38, 5.06 units] (0.056)
  • 5th Home Series [2-1, 0.50 units] (0.167)
  • 1st Road Series [406-530, -72.65 units] (-0.078)
  • 2nd Road Series [321-421, -57.39 units] (-0.077)
  • 3rd Road Series [128-157, -22.26 units] (-0.078)
  • 4th Road Series [41-52, -9.98 units] (-0.107)
  • 5th Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • L-->L [119-119, -12.12 units] (-0.051)
  • R-->R [1108-1052, 6.27 units] (0.003)
  • L-->R [412-448, -55.12 units] (-0.064)
  • R-->L [406-431, -31.57 units] (-0.038)
  • Diff. Orientation [829-885, -81.39 units] (-0.047)
  • opTeam Diff. Orientation [885-829, 13.05 units] (0.008)
 
InterLeague <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right width="33%">Road Dogs Versus Slumping Home Teams

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=grey_1 colSpan=2>Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball Betting

When a team's offense is struggling, you will lose will almost any pitcher. Just ask Roger Clemens in 2005 if he would have liked more run support. There's a very simple yet rare system in play going against sputtering offensive teams that gives our team about 20 points of value.

It is very easy for Vegas to adjust the odds against poor offensive clubs or even teams struggling offensively so league-wide such a general system will do nothing for you.

There is little familiarity between pitcher and hitter in Interleague games. This generally favors the pitcher evidenced by the fact that pitchers in their debut are actually pretty good. Struggling offensively and facing a pitcher they have never seen is a very strong go against angle.

To constitute a team struggling offensively, I constrain it to averaging 2 or fewer runs over its previous 4 games. I also look to bet only on road teams in this scenario.

Betting this system is 31-21 +13 units over the past 7 seasons. If our team is favorite, it improves to 14-5 and represents a team undervalued by 36.5 points
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System:

Go for an American League Home Team in the first game of an Interleague series whose spread is greater than -130 going against a team off a series loss and that has won less than 6 games L10.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 4-1 3.252000: 6-1 6.202001: 5-4 2.152002: 5-3 2.402003: 5-4 1.10Total: 25-13 15.10</PRE>Analysis:

The home field advantage in baseball is not as easy to define as it is in other sports. It is the strongest during Interleague play because opponents are not familiar with how to field, bat, etc in the unknown stadium. We are taking the AL team here because of the DH situation. You see, since the NL does not use a DH, their DH in an Interleague game will in know way be able to compare to their AL opponent. This added offensive edge coupled with the fact that the NL team has not been playing exceptionally well make a great play.
 
An Offense in Motion Tends to Stay in Motion

by Peter Portero / Paul Bachar (06/23)
Pardon my Einsten-esque title. When a team is rolling offensively in baseball, they will tend to keep up their good fortunes. Any hitter in baseball will tell you that the sport is all about timing and if a hitter gets on a roll they will continue to be successful. So betting on team's with strong offensive number over their previous couple of games is an important angle in baseball. In fact, teams off of double digit run performances this season are on a tear.

The average number of runs scored per game is generally between 4-5 runs. If you double that total, you are in the 10 run range. So imagine betting on teams that are coming off games in which they scored double digit runs. You would have gone 101-79 this season. In fact, you would be +50 units over the past 6 seasons or so if you only focused on the games that occurred before July.

We found the system continues to work even if the game following their double digit performance was the start of a new series but it was not great. Just as Einstein said an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless there exists an external force to act against that motion. The start of a new series can tend to break up the momentum of a team.
Now we see ourselves betting on a system that is 517-440 +37 units dating back to the start of the 2000 season.

Another thing that can break this momentum is a change in the pitcher orientation. Having to face a lefty after a righty or vice versa can make a team have to start from scratch. By removing those games from our pallete, we see ourselves with an overall system that has gone a whopping 315-238, +58 units dating back to the start of the 2000 season. Including 45-30 +16 units this season.

To make this system pop, all you have to do is first eliminate intersections. An intersection would occur if both teams scored double digit runs, then remove the teams that have won 3 or fewer games L10.
 
System:

Go for the road team in an Interleague game if their opponent is averaging 2 or fewer runs in their past 4 games. Spread must be greater than or equal to -130.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 3-2 +1.502000: 2-0 +3.352001: 3-3 +0.602002: 6-2 +4.152003: 3-3 +1.20Total: 17-10 +10.80</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.44 Runs
Analysis:

This is a situation where the home field advantage is nullified. The home team here is struggling offensively and we expect it to continue.
 
System:

Go for any road underdog off a loss in an Interleague Game that has scored an average of 4.5 or more runs per game L5 and has won 5 or more games L10.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 5-2 +3.952000: 8-5 +6.312001: 4-3 +2.402002: 3-3 +1.702003: 5-5 +2.65Total: 25-18 +17.01</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 1.07 Runs
Analysis:

This is a total momentum play. A team was play strong but are coming off a loss. History contends that they keep up their momentum more often than not just based on their great offensive stats.
Related Baseball Articles and Betting Systems
 
System:

Go for the road favorite with a spread no less than -130 in an interleague game in which it is not the first game of the series coming off a loss and averaging greater than 4.5 runs per game L5 versus an opponent that has not scored more than 7 runs in its previous game.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 6-0 +6.002000: 2-1 +0.952001: 4-1 +2.952002: 3-0 +3.002003: 4-2 +1.60Total: 19-4 +14.50</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 3.09 Runs
Analysis:

Here we see ourselves purposely not going against the home team in the first game of the series. We like the road favorite because we see them scoring well, motivated off a loss.
 
Guide to Betting Baseball Division Rivalry Games

Here are how these divisional rival teams fared under the following situations:
  • As a dog [3414-4513, 191.10] (0.024)
  • As a favorite [4875-3778, -603.42] (-0.070)
  • Off a win [4240-3971, -142.37] (-0.017)
  • Off a loss [3977-4251, -268.52] (-0.033)
  • Off being shut out [412-439, -20.91] (-0.025)
  • Off scoring DD [806-671, 63.69] (0.043)
  • Series Game 1 [2583-2586, -135.16] (-0.026)
  • Series Game 2 [2565-2566, -123.83] (-0.024)
  • Series Game 3 [2287-2290, -116.09] (-0.025)
  • Series Game 4 [625-625, -30.95] (-0.025)
  • At Home [4425-3867, -290.47] (-0.035)
  • On the Road [3866-4426, -119.85] (-0.014)
  • In the Playoffs [38-38, -2.07] (-0.027)
  • Off LL [2047-2272, -142.71] (-0.033)
  • Off WW [2217-1996, -73.05] (-0.017)
  • 5+ WL10 [4852-4455, -214.10] (-0.023)
  • 7+ WL10 [1569-1320, -87.41] (-0.030)
  • <=3 WL10 [1913-2142, -32.93] (-0.008)
  • <=5 WL10 [5088-5548, -380.24] (-0.036)
  • Against team off SO [438-412, -22.55] (-0.027)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [670-806, -138.22] (-0.094)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [1237-1336, -131.55] (-0.051)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [1344-1245, -0.26] (-0.000)
  • Off W (G1) [1336-1240, -8.44] (-0.003)
  • Off L (G1) [1247-1346, -126.72] (-0.049)
Here are the Need-to-Knows
  1. Divisional rivals perform about 10 points better as an underdog than as a favorite.
  2. These teams are lethal if coming off a game in which they scored double digit runs. +64 units over the past 8 seasons.
  3. There is about 2 points more value in taking these teams if they are playing on the road than if they are playing at home.
  4. If it is the first game of a series, teams off a loss perform about 4.5 points worse than if they were coming into the game off a win.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right width="33%">Competitiveness of Division Rivalry Games in Baseball

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We always say that division rivalry games in baseball are tight for some of the following reasons. Scouting reports on both sides are the best.
Rivalry games bring out the best effort from both teams.
Rivalry games are the games the fans enjoy the most and generally propel a home dog to victory.
We know that taking the underdog in a division rivalry game is a good bet but is it really because the games are so tight or because the oddsmakers have not clearly adjusted for whatever reason.

We conditioned on a team winning for the following scenarios to try and get a feeling for how tight some of the games are by looking at the average margin of victory. We found a striking similarity.
League-Wide: 3.55Division Rivalry Games: 3.57Non Division Rivalry Games: 3.55</PRE>
It seems as though when teams win, they win by the same average margin of victory regardless of type of game. We expected to see the advantage from division rivalry games to be much smaller to indicate that the games were closer.

Now we conditioned our analysis on winning home dogs to see the average margins of victory.
League-Wide: 3.21Division Rivalry Games: 3.24Non Division Rivalry Games: 3.18</PRE>
A significant 0.06 run improvement for home underdogs in division rivalry games. Although spread across all games, the advantage in a division rivalry / non-division rivalry game is identical, this is due to the fact that home underdogs in division rivalry games perform much better. That is why these are the underdogs that we like to focus on.
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right width="33%">Pitcher Orientation in Division Rivalry Games

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=grey_1 colSpan=2>Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball

Baseball teams play their division far more games than they play any of the other divisions. This intensifies their hatred for one another as well as increases their familiarity with each other's strengths and weaknesses. Combining the two makes for really great competitive games where pitchers actually have less bearing on the game as most will believe.
Because detailed scouting reports are widely available to division rivals, a teams advantage is diminished. I originally began my analysis with the belief that a pitcher's orientation would be huge in a division rivalry game. For example, a team like the Oakland Athletics that hits incredibly well against lefties was 30-17 (+11.57 units) against lefties in 2005. Over the past 5 seasons, these Athletics were a whopping 138-89 (61%) +29 units versus lefties.


There exists a huge disparity when you analyze their performance against division rivals and not. The Athletics were a dismal 45-41 (-6 units) against Lefties in division rival games over the past 5 seasons. Compare that to their 93-48 +35 units versus lefties in non-division rival games.

What this teaches us is to bank on batting/pitching advantages during non-division rivalry games but to dismiss them in division rivalry games. This little tidbit of information will have me looking over any betting system I use to tweak them and improve them. You should do the same.
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Road Favorites Betting System
System:

Go for an above 500 road favorite in a non-division rivalry game with spread not less than -130 coming off a loss versus the same team it is currently facing. That must have 5+ wins L10. Our road record must either be above 50% or if it is not, must have won 3 or more road games L5. Opponent must not have a home winning percentage greater than 60%. Opponent must not have more than 5 wins L10.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 16-6 +8.852000: 10-6 +3.052001: 11-3 +7.352002: 5-3 +1.602003: 5-2 +2.55Total: 47-20 +23.40</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 1.96 Runs
Analysis:

Baseball is all about momentum.
 
Guide to Betting Baseball Non-Division Rivalry Games

Non-divisionalry games are pitted against two teams that sometimes do not really care about the games that they play. So you can usually get big plays on motivated teams against unmotivated games.
  • 1st Half of Season [4281-4282, -189.86 units] (-0.022)
  • 2nd half of season [4882-4877, -226.18 units] (-0.023)
  • National League [4781-4781, -220.53 units] (-0.023)
  • American League [4557-4557, -209.67 units] (-0.023)
  • Divsional Rival [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • Non-Divsional Rival [9338-9338, -430.20 units] (-0.023)
  • Interleague Game [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • As a dog [3680-5250, -230.26 units] (-0.026)
  • As a favorite [5655-4085, -202.94 units] (-0.021)
  • Off a win [4774-4545, -228.84 units] (-0.025)
  • Off a loss [4517-4745, -197.92 units] (-0.021)
  • Off being shut out [452-451, 21.85 units] (0.024)
  • Off scoring DD [877-804, -19.66 units] (-0.012)
  • Series Game 1 [3021-3020, -143.97 units] (-0.024)
  • Series Game 2 [2971-2972, -134.40 units] (-0.023)
  • Series Game 3 [2743-2744, -125.54 units] (-0.023)
  • Series Game 4 [460-460, -22.22 units] (-0.024)
  • At Home [4988-4350, -262.46 units] (-0.028)
  • On the Road [4350-4988, -167.74 units] (-0.018)
  • In the Playoffs [175-179, -14.16 units] (-0.040)
  • Off LL [2220-2488, -133.41 units] (-0.028)
  • Off WW [2494-2259, -102.66 units] (-0.022)
  • 5+ WL10 [5856-5455, -245.42 units] (-0.022)
  • 7+ WL10 [1976-1703, -107.23 units] (-0.029)
  • <=3 WL10 [1800-2083, -75.49 units] (-0.019)
  • <=5 WL10 [5440-5905, -338.29 units] (-0.030)
  • Against team off SO [451-452, -65.95 units] (-0.073)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [804-877, -59.39 units] (-0.035)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [1466-1582, -147.69 units] (-0.048)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [1554-1438, 2.72 units] (0.001)
  • Off W (G1) [1583-1466, 1.17 units] (0.000)
  • Off L (G1) [1438-1554, -145.14 units] (-0.049)
  • 1st Home Series [2227-1926, -102.03 units] (-0.025)
  • 2nd Home Series [2027-1749, -80.24 units] (-0.021)
  • 3rd Home Series [494-445, -38.20 units] (-0.041)
  • 4th Home Series [128-125, -22.23 units] (-0.088)
  • 5th Home Series [7-4, 2.40 units] (0.218)
  • 1st Road Series [1941-2203, -48.10 units] (-0.012)
  • 2nd Road Series [1797-2031, -46.64 units] (-0.012)
  • 3rd Road Series [412-535, -83.21 units] (-0.088)
  • 4th Road Series [82-105, -13.06 units] (-0.070)
  • 5th Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • L-->L [495-481, -8.54 units] (-0.009)
  • R-->R [5012-4924, -211.45 units] (-0.021)
  • L-->R [1913-1887, -38.75 units] (-0.010)
  • R-->L [1859-1984, -169.56 units] (-0.044)
  • Diff. Orientation [3783-3884, -208.47 units] (-0.027)
  • opTeam Diff. Orientation [3884-3783, -150.40 units] (-0.020)
 
Guide to Betting Baseball Home Teams

  • 1st Half of Season [5261-4459, -136.18 units] (-0.014)
  • 2nd half of season [5173-4537, -326.47 units] (-0.034)
  • National League [5621-4872, -311.12 units] (-0.030)
  • American League [4952-4241, -166.77 units] (-0.018)
  • Divsional Rival [4425-3867, -290.47 units] (-0.035)
  • Non-Divsional Rival [4988-4350, -262.46 units] (-0.028)
  • Interleague Game [1160-896, 75.04 units] (0.036)
  • As a dog [2746-3540, -2.83 units] (-0.000)
  • As a favorite [7825-5571, -477.06 units] (-0.036)
  • Off a win [5663-4731, -318.83 units] (-0.031)
  • Off a loss [4847-4326, -153.82 units] (-0.017)
  • Off being shut out [478-412, 5.75 units] (0.006)
  • Off scoring DD [991-793, -31.49 units] (-0.018)
  • Series Game 1 [3390-2915, -158.70 units] (-0.025)
  • Series Game 2 [3411-2817, -14.60 units] (-0.002)
  • Series Game 3 [3024-2676, -197.46 units] (-0.035)
  • Series Game 4 [567-518, -59.98 units] (-0.055)
  • At Home [10573-9113, -477.89 units] (-0.024)
  • On the Road [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • In the Playoffs [139-117, -15.24 units] (-0.060)
  • Off LL [2353-2183, -68.32 units] (-0.015)
  • Off WW [3047-2379, -61.10 units] (-0.011)
  • 5+ WL10 [6411-5077, -216.23 units] (-0.019)
  • 7+ WL10 [2085-1511, -67.40 units] (-0.019)
  • <=3 WL10 [2219-2209, -118.50 units] (-0.027)
  • <=5 WL10 [6388-5974, -416.38 units] (-0.034)
  • Against team off SO [562-483, -61.60 units] (-0.059)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [860-881, -153.30 units] (-0.088)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [1592-1544, -255.92 units] (-0.082)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [1795-1369, 96.37 units] (0.030)
  • Off W (G1) [1749-1449, -81.16 units] (-0.025)
  • Off L (G1) [1641-1466, -77.54 units] (-0.025)
  • 1st Home Series [4842-4160, -203.64 units] (-0.023)
  • 2nd Home Series [3909-3355, -175.33 units] (-0.024)
  • 3rd Home Series [1244-1040, 2.10 units] (0.001)
  • 4th Home Series [264-254, -44.02 units] (-0.085)
  • 5th Home Series [11-9, 2.05 units] (0.103)
  • 1st Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • 2nd Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • 3rd Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • 4th Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • 5th Road Series [0-0, 0.00 units] (0.000)
  • L-->L [573-483, -17.95 units] (-0.017)
  • R-->R [5593-4744, -215.44 units] (-0.021)
  • L-->R [2174-1896, -104.57 units] (-0.026)
  • R-->L [2152-1919, -136.26 units] (-0.033)
  • Diff. Orientation [4344-3828, -237.26 units] (-0.029)
  • opTeam Diff. Orientation [4455-3668, -6.59 units] (-0.001)
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right width="33%">Home Field Advantage

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=grey_1 colSpan=2>Baseball Home Field Advantage
The home field advantage in baseball is not well documented as it is in the NBA and NFL. Teams in the NBA can have over 0.600 records at home but under 0.400 on the road. Since this is not the case in baseball, many novice gamblers do not take home field advantage into account when making wagers. The truth is that baseball home teams win 53.6% of the time as opposed to road teams winning 46.4%. Therefore the home team advantage is worth 7.2%.

As a result, there are very few baseball handicapping systems that I have for Road Favorites. When a good pitcher is on the mound on the road, the home field advantage of the opponent is rarely taken into consideration. This 7.2% advantage gives us great value on the home team.

53.6% is the break-even percentage for a -116 home favorite. This means that an otherwise Pickem in a neutral field would be a -116 at home. More articles will be coming on isolating situations where dealing with home favorites in this range can be truly profitable by isolating situations where a team's home field advantage is actually larger than the standard 7.2%.
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Analyzing the home field advantage further, I noticed interesting correlations between a home team's winning percentage and the game number in a series.


Game 1: 54.2% Game 2: 53.8% Game 3: 53.5% Game 4: 50.2% </PRE>
The home field advantage decreases as the series progresses to the point that by Game 4 of the series, the home field advantage is nullified. Our records indicate that the oddsmakers have not appropriately adjusted for this Game 4 phenomenon and as a result, very successful systems exist for this.

Explanation: It is important to be able to explain phenomenon and systems that are uncovered to keep from utilizing systems that are statistical aberrations. The fact of the matter is, this phenomenon makes perfect sense. Baseball teams generally play everyday and Game 1's are tough for the road team generally having to travel into a new city. By game 4, the effects of travelling subside and nullify the home field advantage.

Making sense of the phenomenon of the home field advantage in Game 1's in the previous page actually brings to light some interesting points that we ought to consider.
How do Home teams do in Games 1, when the opponent is coming off a win, loss, off a home game, road game.
Home Teams in Game 1 of a series versus a Team...

Off a Win: 50.8% Off a Loss: 57.5% Off a Road: 54.5% Off a Home: 53.8% </PRE>
There is a strong correlation between a team losing and a team being a bad team. That is why going against teams off a loss would win at a higher percentage than going against teams off a win. Up to this point, we did not concern ourselves with Expected Value because of the large sample sizes we were dealing with. Click here to read our article on Expected Value. Measuring systems and angles based on expected value helps us understand how much better than the money line odds does a team do.

In fact, the expected value of going against a team coming off a loss is positive. This means that blindly betting that angle is a winning system but before betting the farm on this, keep in mind that this is averaged over several seasons and one can lose plenty in a given season. Nevertheless, the reason for this is psychological to the entire team. Travelling to a new city to play a game is tough but to be compounded into a situation where spirits on the team is low due to a loss can be quite profitable to go against.

The truth of the matter for baseball is that betting on teams that have been playing well is strong since teams go on streaks. Teams put their best effort onto the field when playing division rivals, so going for a team that should win when it is NOT playing a division rival will help considerably because we would not expect the proper motivation from the other side.
Using those two elements in conjunction provides us with a winning system.

Going for Home Underdogs in non-divisional rival games in the First Game of a Series when our team has won 6 or more in the past 10 versus a team coming off a road loss is 28-23. Underdogs that win about 55%!!!
If we are going against a team that has won 5 or fewer games in their past 10, our team is 20-12! Underdogs that win about 62.5%. 11-2 the past two seasons
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right width="33%">Home Teams in the Second Game of a Double-Header

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There are many sayings in baseball that are very good go against angles. With the notoriety of the ATS records in the NBA and NFL, it is easy to determine if a betting proposition is bad or good.

In baseball, since we deal with the money line, it is hard to determine if a system is good or not based purely on records. One example that I will give you is about the double header in baseball. Most sports handicapers and lay baseball fans will tell you that it is tough for a team to win both games of a double header. I have noticed that after the first game of a double header, more action gets placed on the loser of Game 1 in the second game. Bettors are applying this theory and trying to win money out of it.

It was not until now that I decided to run the numbers and see if this saying is in fact true. It is not. Teams that win Game 1 come out in Game 2 having a 109-92 record +5.5 units. Blindly betting for the winner of game 1 was money over the past 7 seasons. This is exactly what the oddsmakers want knowing that the majority of the betting action would be going towards the other team.

I ran the numbers and compared whether or not the winner was the home team or the road team and found that if they were a home team, they were 67-44 +10 units. This makes perfect sense to me now though, considering the fact that the hometown stadium saw their team win at home in Game 1 keeps them fired up and excited for Game 2. This extra bit of a home field advantage coupled with additional betting action on the opposite side provides the building blocks of a good system.

If my home field advantage angle is true then the more runs scored by the Game 1 winner would correlate to a better winning percentage in Game 2 because fans are excited by seeing runs scored. If our home team scored 7+ runs in their previous game, they ended up 38-18 +14 units over the past 7 seasons. The makings of our first great double header betting system.

If it is +14 units when the team scores so many runs, then it is negative units otherwise. Seeing an angle like this makes us have to go back to square one. Let us say we want to bet on the loser of game 1 but their opponent scored fewer than 5 runs. We would have a system that was 27-23 +8 units. It is barely profitable when our team is playing on the road but at home it improves to 13-7 +7 units, the makings of our second great double header betting system.
We basically have two good betting systems saying to go for the home team. One in a situation where they are coming off an impressive win. Another where they are coming off a loss. Combined the systems are a 51-25 for +21 units.
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Home Teams in Game 2 of a Series

System

A visitor emailed us today asking what we thought about AL teams off a loss playing in the second game of a series. My guess is that this question was in response to the Game of the Year we easily cashed in on Wednesday with the Mariners at home.

We concluded that the Mariners were our AL "Want to Win" Game of the Year because they were headed into Game 3 with the series tied 1-1. Anybody could tell you that in order to win the series you would have to win game 3, sports junky or not. Of course there were other factors involved that we did not explicitly say on the website because A) some of the premium systems for sale on our site already did so and B) it would take too long. Long story short, it had less to do with losing than it did with the fact they lost embarassingly 14-4 in Game 2. And what did they do in Game 3? Annihilate Kris Benson for 7 runs in 2 full innings of work. See what motivation at the plate can do?

Okay so now we get back to the question at hand. Some of our premium systems are of this flavor. Taking a team at home off of a loss. It helps if that loss was as a huge favorite. Meaning, you lose as a -200 favorite, you smack the crap out of your opponent the very next game. Heck, I remember the Angels last year falling into that system. It was our last regular season GOY of the year and an easy winner. The Angels not only followed up that loss by a win but with 8+ wins.

Let's constrain ourselves to home favorites off a loss in Game 2 of a series to make the analysis simple. What we find is very striking.
Past Results

Blindly betting these teams has gone 36-20 this season for +10 units. In fact, it is +78 units over the past 6 full season plus this season. Whoa.
We know that underdogs in division rivalry games are generally very good bets so we do not want to go against them right? So let us remove division rivalry games from our system and we find a system that has gone +100 units during the same span.
<TABLE class=grey_1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Year</TD><TD>Record</TD><TD>Win %</TD><TD>Units</TD><TD>E[x]</TD></TR><TR><TD>2006</TD><TD>17-9</TD><TD>0.65</TD><TD>6.45</TD><TD>0.24</TD></TR><TR><TD>2005</TD><TD>87-52</TD><TD>0.62</TD><TD>14.16</TD><TD>0.10</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004</TD><TD>83-39</TD><TD>0.68</TD><TD>26.27</TD><TD>0.21</TD></TR><TR><TD>2003</TD><TD>75-39</TD><TD>0.65</TD><TD>18.40</TD><TD>0.16</TD></TR><TR><TD>2002</TD><TD>79-47</TD><TD>0.62</TD><TD>9.80</TD><TD>0.07</TD></TR><TR><TD>2001</TD><TD>89-51</TD><TD>0.63</TD><TD>15.39</TD><TD>0.10</TD></TR><TR><TD>2000</TD><TD>101-67</TD><TD>0.60</TD><TD>9.85 </TD><TD>0.05</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

E[x] is the expected value of return on a 1 unit bet. Basically, multiple it by 100 and you would get what the true point spread is. In the case of Year 2000, we saw teams being undervalued by a measly 6 points. So a -130 favorite really should be -136. Good day to all of you. AND WIN!
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right width="33%">Hating To Lose As A Home Dog

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=grey_1 colSpan=2>Author: Peter Portero
Date: 2/21/06
Articles Category: Baseball


Home field advantage may not be much in baseball but it does exist. With proper motivation and one-sided betting action on the road team, value can be had betting on home teams.

We all heard the saying that it is tough to sweep a home team. Checking how home teams did in the third game of a series after losing the first two games, we see the home teams bite back and go +18.5 units over the past 3 seasons. As an underdog, our team is a much better value play at +12 units, undervalued by about 6 points.

We all know people love to bet on favorites. In fact, novice gamblers like to stick with what works and will continue betting on the same team until that team lets them down. So if the road team was a favorite in the first two games of the series and their backers won money, then it would be sufficient to say that most of the betting handle would go to the road team in the third game.

We were right, our team is now undervalued by an average of 9 points.

Another thing people love to do is bet favorites on the run line to lessen their risk amount and increase the payout. So if our team was to lose on the run line in the first two games then certainly more betting handle would be on the road team in Game 3. Again, we were right and this added constraint to our system finds our underdog undervalued by an average of 15 points!
So as you look to bet on teams, it is not sufficient enough to evaluate the game itself. Spend a little time to analyze where the betting action is going and fade the public for value.

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Dissecting the Baseball Travel Angle - First Home/Road Leg

(July 31, 2006)
We all understand how travel affects a team in basketball. The sportsbooks will give a team an extra point if they are rested. Similarly, they will dock off a point if a team has no rest.

But very few people before us have quantified the affects of travel on baseball.

First, we start out by identifying the different types of travel in baseball and see how they have done W/L %, Units Won, and Expected Value (E[x]) when betting 100 on the team.​
<TABLE class=grey_1 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="82%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="47%">Type of Travel </TD><TD width="14%">Win% </TD><TD width="16%">Units</TD><TD width="23%">E[x]</TD></TR><TR><TD>Road Game --> Road Game </TD><TD>46.9</TD><TD>-39.3</TD><TD>-1.4</TD></TR><TR><TD>Road Game --> Home Game </TD><TD>53.1</TD><TD>-128</TD><TD>-4.9</TD></TR><TR><TD>Home Game --> Road Game </TD><TD>46.6</TD><TD>-33.3</TD><TD>-1.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The most important thing we look at E[x] as it teaches you more about the return on your investment when you bet the team.

So as you can see, the toughest thing in baseball is to come back home from a road series. Reason: Players can be away from their families for as much as 2 weeks and we can guarantee that they will be more worried about seeing their families instead of playing the next game.

But it would be ludicrous to think that a team would let down like that if they played a division rival or something, right?

So let's analyze how teams in the (Road->Home) fared in the following Game Types.​
<TABLE class=grey_1 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="73%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="40%">Type of Game </TD><TD width="23%">Win% </TD><TD width="13%">Units</TD><TD width="24%">E[x]</TD></TR><TR><TD>Division Rivalry </TD><TD>51.6</TD><TD>-98</TD><TD>-9.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Non-Division Rivalry </TD><TD>53.5</TD><TD>-40.4</TD><TD>-3.3</TD></TR><TR><TD>Interleague</TD><TD>57.0</TD><TD>+11.0</TD><TD>+3.8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
As most simple systems go, it is a winner in Interleague games. And is why our Interleague picks are usually very good. But we were wrong in our assumption that they would be less likely to let down in a division rivalry game. The contrary is true. The division rival is prime for the attack like a tiger preying on a zebra. There is no let-up. As a result, the home team is almost 2% less likely to win in this situation.

Another thing we often say when making picks is that travelling is not going to help a team if it is struggling offensively. So let's look at the results of the previous two games. W = win, L = loss.
<TABLE class=grey_1 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="66%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Past Results </TD><TD>Win% </TD><TD>Units</TD><TD>E[x]</TD></TR><TR><TD>WW </TD><TD>56.3</TD><TD>-8.2</TD><TD>-3.5</TD></TR><TR><TD>WL</TD><TD>54.5</TD><TD>+3</TD><TD>+1.2</TD></TR><TR><TD>LW</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>-39</TD><TD>-14.2</TD></TR><TR><TD>LL</TD><TD>47.5</TD><TD>-54</TD><TD>-16.2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
What we see is that the result of two games prior has more of a bearing on the result of this game. More importantly, we see that losses in prior games generally mean the team is going to fall fat on their face. The data above has pretty large samples such that it is worth it to narrow down our "go against" propositions to only the third and fourth row.

Another noteworthy thing to check out to identify struggling teams is points scored in their previous game.
<TABLE class=grey_1 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="67%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Past Score </TD><TD>Win% </TD><TD>Units</TD><TD>E[x]</TD></TR><TR><TD>< 3 </TD><TD>46.1</TD><TD>-37</TD><TD>-19.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>3-6</TD><TD>50.0</TD><TD>-29</TD><TD>-10.7</TD></TR><TR><TD>7-9</TD><TD>42.3</TD><TD>-31.7</TD><TD>-37.3</TD></TR><TR><TD>10+</TD><TD>60.3</TD><TD>+5</TD><TD>+9.6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Although the expected values may not appear to be consistent, with respect to the rest of baseball, it is very consistent. Teams scoring less than 3 runs do pretty bad. And team in the 7-9 range do bad because they did not score enough runs to be considered "on a roll" but they scored just enough points to have a let down in their next game. In any case, we must exclude teams scoring double digit runs. And keep the rest of the rows.

Going against this team has had winning seasons in all but one of the past 7 seasons. We have only done go-against angles. Sprinkle in a few simple trends and angles going for the other team and you will simply be loaded with cash.
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Bet the Home Teams Early in the Season

Baseball is a long drawn out sport with 162 regular season games. You cannot expect to get the 100% focus of these players in every game, can you? Since baseball games are so low scoring, it is hard to tell that a team "took a day off" as opposed to basketball. We often see basketball teams that normally score 90s-100s scoring 70 and 80 in certain spots. With baseball, when a team scores few runs we just assume the opposing pitcher was on fire.

All this is most apparent in the beginning of the season. Are you going to give it all you got at game 30 when you know you have 130 games left? Not really. And if you are the road team, you do not even have your home fans to play for. So all this boils down to is taking home teams early in the season.

Don't just trust my word on it, look at the past statistics.
Here are some home winning percentages over the past 7 seasons.
  • Overall: 53.6%
  • Games 1-81: 54.2%
  • Game 82-162: 53.0%
There is a 1.2% difference in the win percentages between home teams in the first half of the season as opposed to the second half. 1.2% is quite intriguing because it the difference between -100 and -105! That is an extra 5 points of juice you get by betting the home teams in the early part of any season.

Over the past two full seasons, 2004-2005, baseball's home teams in the first half of the season went a combined 1354-1080 (55.6%) +55 units!!!
<!-- InstanceEndEditable -->
 
System:

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game that has more than 2 home wins than home losses and having won 6+ games L10 and at least won 4 home games L10 home games.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 12-11 +3.102000: 19-12 +11.152001: 29-19 +15.302002: 26-18 +13.002003: 20-12 +11.85Total: 106-72 +54.40</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.42 Runs


Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.
 
System: Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 5-5 +1.202000: 9-4 +6.902001: 13-9 +6.302002: 11-6 +6.302003: 7-4 +4.15Total: 45-28 +24.85</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.32 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.
 
Home Underdogs Betting System
Baseball System:

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game that has won 6+ games L10 that has 2 more home wins than home losses.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 13-11 +4.402000: 19-12 +11.152001: 30-19 +16.552002: 26-18 +13.002003: 20-12 +11.85Total: 108-72 +56.95 </PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.43 Runs

Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on. Our home underdog is an above average home team which basically narrows down poor home teams. We also constrain our system to teams that are on a roll with 6+ wins. Momentum is important and we have a very undervalued team here.
 
Home Team Betting System
System:

Go for any home team with a better than 50% home record in the first game of a series if they are more than 10 games below 500 and going up against a team that has won less than 6 games L10.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 4-1 +2.702000: 8-5 +4.152001: 2-0 +2.252002: 14-5 +13.352003: 5-2 +4.05Total: 33-13 +26.50</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 1.46 Runs
Analysis:

This is a contrarion play because we are going for a team that is more than 10 games below 500. Joe public does not want to bet on a team that is so bad. But what the don't realize is that their good home record coupled with the added home field advantage of the first game of a series, this makes a decent play
 
91-39 (70%) +40 Unit MLB System
We have been betting on baseball a long time and there are a few things that have served us well over the years.
  • A. Try to bet on home teams in the first game of a series.
  • B. Bet on teams with momentum.
  • C. Bet against struggling teams.
  • D. Go against teams on long road trips.
We never really quantified the road trip issue until now. So here are the results of our statistical analysis.
Win Percentages
  • Road Teams (1st Road Series): 46.4%
  • Road Teams (2nd Road Series): 46.5%
  • Road Teams (3rd Road Series): 45.3%
  • Road Teams (4th Road Series): 44.8%
Now that we have quantified the results, we see that teams are not really affected by being on the road unless they get into their third and fourth road series. In fact, blindly going against teams in their third and fourth road series in the 2005 season was 205-144 +22 units! This makes for a good go against angle and is the building blocks for the system here.
Using angle A. above as a constraining system, we find ourselves having a 436-335, +33 unit system over the 7 full seasons dating from 1999-2005. Using a variant of Angle C by going against teams off having been swept, we find ourselves with our killer 91-39, +40 unit system with no losing seasons. As of May 7, 2006 this system has gone 2-0 this season.
It is pretty simple to remember.
I. Go against teams on their third or fourth road trips if it is the first game of the series if they were swept in their earlier series.
​
And if you exclude non-division rivalry games in which our team has to face a pitcher of a different pitching orientation, the system improves to 74% over the past 7 years. It is on a pretty decent run lately as it has gone 44-12 (79%) over the past 5 seasons.
 
Home Underdogs Betting System
System:

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game coming off a loss that has won fewer than 6 games L10 but going against an opponent with a below 40% road record.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 7-2 +6.552000: 6-4 +2.952001: 6-6 +0.902002: 8-8 +1.952003: 8-12 -1.55Total: 35-32 +10.80</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.27 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.
 
Home Underdogs Betting System
System:

Go for a home dog in a division rivalry game with a spread less than 200, that has won 6+ games L10 with a home winning percentage greater than 55% and going against an opponent with a less than 50% road record.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 5-2 +4.102000: 4-3 +1.402001: 13-8 +7.702002: 9-4 +5.852003: 9-3 +7.80Total: 40-20 +26.85</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.73 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.
 
Home Favorites Betting System
System:

Go for a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games L10 coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs. They must have won 3+ games L7 Home Games while the opponent has only won 5 or fewer games L10.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 7-5 +1.252000: 14-7 +5.902001: 15-8 +5.052002: 8-4 +3.252003: 10-1 +8.70Total: 54-25 +24.15</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 0.73 Runs
Analysis:

If your spread is less than -110 then you should be the winner. The team in this situation will look to their home field advantage to pick them up after their loss. It is easy to assume they will bounce back considering that they have been playing well coming into the game.
 
Home Favorites Betting System
System:

Go for a small home favorite that has won 6+ home games in last 10 attempts and has 3 or more home wins than losses and going against an above 500 team that has won less than 6 road games in last 10 attempts. The opponent must have less than 6 wins L10, have a below 500 road record. This must not be the first game of the series.
Past Years Results:


Year Record Units1999: 5-1 +3.75 2000: 12-6 +5.002001: 5-3 +1.452002: 4-3 +0.552003: 12-6 +5.20Total: 38-19 +15.95</PRE>Average Margin of Victory: 1.07 Runs
Analysis:

Another type of a contrarion play here. The team we are going against is an above 500 team but not only are they below 500 on the road, but are 500 or worse L10 games, and 500 or worse L10 road games. Our team is not only decent at home but are also playing well.
 
GOOD THREAD

much needed, starting to get into the swing of things and get ready for bases season again, this was a great refresher.

thank you for this
 
Awesome info ........now the HARD PART - how do we cash in on this thru a 162 game schedule. Anybody have ideas on how we can catch these situations when they arise AND the fastest/easiest way to do this?
 
i have the 20 systems that they sell ...I bought them last year but didnt ever use them ..when i first got them around july they where on a bad run and then they picked up steam and took in about 50 units for the season..

This is the site that gave me the idea for the system in my other thread ..
 
Most of premium systems will give you a headache 5 ,6 ,7 or more filters...that`s mainly why i didnt use them...too lazy ...last year they posted the plays on the website for free early in the season ...but they didnt do well until later ...then they started to email them to me ... I think i will just use 3 or 4 of the systems this year ..
 
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