ESPN's been making a lot of hay with this team concept on Ohio St's defense this year after losing 9 starters to the NFL. They even had some horseshit where they had Holtz and the other fellow picking which D they would choose...this year's or last. It's not comparable because we've seen last year's lose to VY...and this year's ain't going to play him.
I think both these teams are on a plateau by themselves. I'm not really a fan, so I honestly think I'm unbiased here. Holding Texas to 7 is impressive. Obliterating the Weis offense is equally as impressive to me. And yes, I think tOSU would do it too.
Last year's Michigan team was unimpressive to say the least (by Blue's standards, anyway), and I think that the public/commentator expectation is that they're about to hit the real world this weekend...Either tOSU's line contains Hart and forces Henne to throw it (bad news against that secondary), or the UM D-line just can't contain Troy Smith...that is, what VY did to tOSU last year, Troy will do to Michigan.
remember, I'm talking about fan/casual observer perception here...and these are the fuckers the lines are set for. These lines are not set to try to go up against hunt, jump, and bar.
I love that ESPN consensus poll. Only Michigan and Wyoming?!?! think UM will win that game. This perception, I think, the books would consider in setting lines.
So while I happen to agree with BAR that Michigan is fucking incredible this year (especially compared to the shitlog they laid last year), they've not received respect in the polls til a month or so ago. Even after the crushing of ND, the perception was that Michigan was more the team that the coaches were showing against shit teams compared to supposed good teams like ND.
BAR and HUNT are right....it was a different team on the field that played Vanderbilt and CMU compared to what played ND. The gameplan was totally shocking, and Weis wasn't ready for it. Michigan gave up 21 to ND...but that's only 4 more than what they gave up to CMU the week before. And Michigan went right back to martyball the week after Wisconsin (a great Wisky team is getting overlooked this year, too...suckage). So the perception remains the same. Who has UM beaten? Wisky, ND, MSU (before the perrenial collapse), a tough penn st team CMU (a [the] great MAC team)...lots of quality ball there, but it's taken a begrudgingly long time for perception to even begin catching up with what UM has done and is doing.
Thing is, Tressel is doing the same thing. BOTH teams laid an egg two weeks ago. Both are playing the same moronic shill game, and I think it's hysterical. They both felt the need to beatdown last week's opponent, but other than that, they've been doing just enough to get by. Against weaker opponents, Hart shines, but only so much because of playcalling. Troy, OTOH, is out there making incredible plays and Tressel is thinking SAVE IT FOR THE BLUE, YOU ASSCLOWN...but he can't stop Troy with playcalling like Carr can. On any busted play, Troy can toss a 50 yard bomb to Ginn, and the guy's going to make an incredible play.
I think that's going to be harder against UM. Texas didn't have their secondary against tOSU. That = harder to contain Smith. So the perception of buckeye invincibility remains. Best comparison is Penn St, but that game was tight as a 12yr old girl's ass til the 4th quarter when Morelli fell apart. tOSU still grabbed 148 on the ground at 3.8ypc. And let me remind you Troy lovers. 12 for 22, 1 TD, and 2 picks. If he doesn't improve that dramatically, the buckeyes will lose outright. No Doubt.
However, the defensive picks make the score 28-6 instead of Smith's incredible acrobatics making it 14-6. So the perception of invincibility remains.
I'm honestly surprised it didn't open at 8. Obviously early money has moved it down, but I can almost guarantee you that this line will skyrocket on Friday and saturday.......unless of course Dr Bob fucks it up.
Perception is all over the poisonous ohio nut husks. I guess -8 or -9 would just be assinine looking, I guess. But I would be surprised if this didn't get up to -7.5 by gametime.
I'm holding off on my ML bet because I'm hoping to get 250 or better. If not, I'll jet let my spread play ride. Crushing NW so much harder than UM crushed Indiana can only help.
Don't misunderstand me. I think tOSU is a GREAT team, but there's been too much sunshine blown up their asses all season. UM wants this win really badly while tOSU and backers expect it. I think Michigan surprises tOSU you a bit more, and I think Troy Smith especially is going to be surprised by the UM defense. Had the seasonal situation been reversed, I'd be all over the tOSU dog, too...
7 is probably a good opening number, but I do think Michigan will perform better than that.
or I could be completely wrong.
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