Food City Dirt Race Preview Article

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Food City Dirt Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Food City Dirt Race
Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee

William Byron


I know that I shrugged off William Byron's last victory because it was the first of his career.

But now that he has won his second victory of the season, he is becoming a force to be reckoned with.

Last week's victory was no fluke, either. Out of the 403 laps in that race, he led 212 of them.

He took over during a pit stop in Stage 2 and secured his well-deserved victory.

This is a development that we need to keep in mind for our future Sports Betting.

It remains a well-supported claim, though, that it is very hard to win consecutive races.

So, with all due respect to Byron, I recommend avoiding recency bias and crossing him off our list of candidates to win Sunday's upcoming race in Bristol.

Night Race

Note that this race is a night race, which is unusual. It is also unusual that this race will take place on Sunday which is Easter Sunday.

A big reason for this race being changed from daytime to nighttime is that it takes place on dirt -- which is why it's officially called a dirt race.

During the day, however, the sun shines on the dirt and reflects off it.

This reflection creates problems with visibility for the drivers. They have trouble seeing and this trouble is obviously dangerous when it's affecting drivers who are going as fast as these guys are going.

Race Info

For this Sunday's race, drivers must complete a total of 250 laps.

As has always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 75 laps.

Stage 2 consists in the following 75 laps.

The final Stage terminates 100 laps later upon completion of the 250th lap.

By now, an entry list has been published for this race.

Out of 40 total spots, 36 teams/drivers have been listed.

For this race, qualifying is a lot more extensive.

First of all, on Saturday starting at 4:05 p.m. ET, there will be a practice session that will last 50 minutes.

At 6:35 p.m. ET there will be a second practice session.

On Sunday, starting at 6 p.m. ET, there will be the first of four qualifying races.

The starting lineup gets determined by these heat races.

Track Info

Sunday's racing track will be made of a dirt surface.

There are four turns and there is no banking anywhere.

Each lap consists in .533 miles.

So, in completing 250 laps, drivers will have accumulated a total of around 125 miles.

Driver I Dislike

One driver whom I find unreliable is Martin Truex Jr.

Truex Jr. has been the definition of hit or miss this season.

Most recently, he finished 22nd.

There is not a big data sample to look at for dirt races.

But the fact that he offered 19thin last year's dirt race in Bristol does not offer much hope.

Driver I Like

It might be tempting to invest in Logano after his strong finish last week.

While he won last year's race, it is generally hard to win races back-to-back.

Plus, Logano has been too inconsistent to justify the current price on him to win,

My favorite driver for this race is Ryan Blaney. Blaney has produced three straight top-seven finishes.

Most recently, he finished fourth at Martinsville.

In addition to his strong performance here last year where he finished seventh, his consistency justifies the expectation that he will earn a solid finishing position.

I think +200 is a nice price for a Blaney top five finish.

Best Bet: Blaney Top 5 Finish at +200 with Bovada
 
Food City Dirt Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: Food City Dirt Race
Sunday, April 17, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee

William Byron


I know that I shrugged off William Byron's last victory because it was the first of his career.

But now that he has won his second victory of the season, he is becoming a force to be reckoned with.

Last week's victory was no fluke, either. Out of the 403 laps in that race, he led 212 of them.

He took over during a pit stop in Stage 2 and secured his well-deserved victory.

This is a development that we need to keep in mind for our future Sports Betting.

It remains a well-supported claim, though, that it is very hard to win consecutive races.

So, with all due respect to Byron, I recommend avoiding recency bias and crossing him off our list of candidates to win Sunday's upcoming race in Bristol.

Night Race

Note that this race is a night race, which is unusual. It is also unusual that this race will take place on Sunday which is Easter Sunday.

A big reason for this race being changed from daytime to nighttime is that it takes place on dirt -- which is why it's officially called a dirt race.

During the day, however, the sun shines on the dirt and reflects off it.

This reflection creates problems with visibility for the drivers. They have trouble seeing and this trouble is obviously dangerous when it's affecting drivers who are going as fast as these guys are going.

Race Info

For this Sunday's race, drivers must complete a total of 250 laps.

As has always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 75 laps.

Stage 2 consists in the following 75 laps.

The final Stage terminates 100 laps later upon completion of the 250th lap.

By now, an entry list has been published for this race.

Out of 40 total spots, 36 teams/drivers have been listed.

For this race, qualifying is a lot more extensive.

First of all, on Saturday starting at 4:05 p.m. ET, there will be a practice session that will last 50 minutes.

At 6:35 p.m. ET there will be a second practice session.

On Sunday, starting at 6 p.m. ET, there will be the first of four qualifying races.

The starting lineup gets determined by these heat races.

Track Info

Sunday's racing track will be made of a dirt surface.

There are four turns and there is no banking anywhere.

Each lap consists in .533 miles.

So, in completing 250 laps, drivers will have accumulated a total of around 125 miles.

Driver I Dislike

One driver whom I find unreliable is Martin Truex Jr.

Truex Jr. has been the definition of hit or miss this season.

Most recently, he finished 22nd.

There is not a big data sample to look at for dirt races.

But the fact that he offered 19thin last year's dirt race in Bristol does not offer much hope.

Driver I Like

It might be tempting to invest in Logano after his strong finish last week.

While he won last year's race, it is generally hard to win races back-to-back.

Plus, Logano has been too inconsistent to justify the current price on him to win,

My favorite driver for this race is Ryan Blaney. Blaney has produced three straight top-seven finishes.

Most recently, he finished fourth at Martinsville.

In addition to his strong performance here last year where he finished seventh, his consistency justifies the expectation that he will earn a solid finishing position.

I think +200 is a nice price for a Blaney top five finish.

Best Bet: Blaney Top 5 Finish at +200 with Bovada
I think Truex will be a good fade this week. Somehow he lead laps at the Bristol dirt race last year, but he had no experience on dirt tracks.
 
I think Truex will be a good fade this week. Somehow he lead laps at the Bristol dirt race last year, but he had no experience on dirt tracks.
He did win the truck race on Bristo ldirt last year though. Probably doesn't mean much.

Bell and Larson were the two heavy faves for the race last year and they wrecked each other early on.

Logano didn't much dirt experience and won last year. Blaney doesn't have much either even though his dad is a dirt legend.

Not sure what I'll do yet but I will definitely be fading Harvick.
 
It is probably worth tracking the drivers from the Cup Series that are running the Truck Series race at Bristol on Saturday as they may learn something about the track to help them on Sunday.

Austin Dillon
Logano
Chase Elliot
Harrison Burton
 
There will be no live pit spots for the race. There will be a 6 minute stop between stages for tires and fuel.
 
Just clicked Hamlin -120 over Bowman. Fading Bowman this week like Harvick. And of course those 2 are matched together.
 
Reddick started 27th last year and finished 7th. Looked good in practice and his win odds have already dropped. +900 now.

I've played these 3 for now.
Suarez -125 over Harvick
Hamlin -120 over Bowman
Jones -110 over Cindrick

Gonna wait until after the heats before I play anything else.
 
Hamlin and Blaney looked like shit in qualifying. Hamlin is really up against it from where he's starting. Gonna be hard to move up in the field in a race without timed pit stops.

This looks like it will be more of a dirt race than the race than last year. Everyone rode around on the bottom last year. This year it looks more of a two lane race. That should help the dirt racers.

Hard for me to find someone other than Larson, Reddick, or Bell winning now.
 
I missed practice and qualifying so it will be a light week for me. It looks like the Larson, Bell, and Riddick matchups are so high now that they are too high to bet.
 
So far I have:

2 units:
Briscoe -120 over Truex(BAS)

1 unit:
Suarez -125 over Harvick(BAS)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +100(DK)
Riddick to win Group C over Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Blaney +150 (DK)
 
Reddick started 27th last year and finished 7th. Looked good in practice and his win odds have already dropped. +900 now.

I've played these 3 for now.
Suarez -125 over Harvick
Hamlin -120 over Bowman
Jones -110 over Cindrick

Gonna wait until after the heats before I play anything else.
Added:

Stenhouse -110 over Bowman.

I never play Stenhouse because he is probably most likely every week to wreck out early. I just didn't like the juiced matchups now after qualifying.

Not real happy with the Bowman over Bowman bet now. But I didn't buy out of it.
 
So far I have:

2 units:
Briscoe -120 over Truex(BAS)

1 unit:
Suarez -125 over Harvick(BAS)

0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +100(DK)
Riddick to win Group C over Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Blaney +150 (DK)
I added 1 unit on Kyle Busch -125 over Hamlin
 
This race is going to be a disaster if the grills are going to keep getting caked with mud. It happened during the 1st race in truck qualifying too.
 
Had Kanaan in 2007 in the 500 for a pretty decent amount somewhere around 10-1. I always think of that race in these situations. He was leading but after a lengthy delay they turned them loose again. I don’t need to tell you what happened. It’s inevitable in these situations it seems.
 
Damn, that last corner wreck between the leader (Reddick) and 2nd place (Briscoe) cost me 5.65 units. Somehow Truex made it back to the start/finish line one spot in front of Briscoe and Kyle Busch came in one spot in front of Reddick to win.

2 units:
Briscoe -120 over Truex(BAS)

1 unit:
Suarez -125 over Harvick(BAS)
Kyle Busch -125 over Hamlin


0.5 unit:
Austin Dillon Top 10 +100(DK)
Reddick to win Group C over Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Blaney +150 (DK)

Bristol Dirt Total = -1.4 units

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +4.4 units
Cup +38.19 units
Both +42.59 units
 
Last edited:
Wild finish....exactly what NASCAR was probably hoping for....the two combatants handled the post-race discussion with class though.
 
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