Fondybadger's Week 9 College Football

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2007 Season 291-244-7 +$5782
Week 1 23-14 +$677
Week 2 16-13 -$4220
Week 3 56-58-3 -$720
Week 4 3-2 +$168
Week 5 28-26 -$417
Week 6 64-37 +$5671
Week 7 42-50-2 +$2042
 Week 8 50-37-2 +$1774
Week 9 9-7 +$390
I continue to start out pretty rough in the morning games, but I can't complain about the runs I've been making in the afternoons. I went 6-2 on games I designated as my favorite plays for the week (two were 2nd half lines). It's not something I'll actively keep track of as I'm too lazy, but I'll continue to point out the games I really like, as people commented to me that it helped them out this past week. I'm going to be in Madison all weekend enjoying the riots and all of that stuff for Halloween. I'll have my computer with me so I'll probably end up checking in, and end up losing or wrecking my computer in a drunken state. As normal I'll update the top post with all my plays and leave a hard copy somewhere else in my thread. Thursday night was a tough loss... But that's a gambling for you...

This week 9-7 +$390

ALL PLAYS IN BLUE, the rest are leans...

Saturday
12:00
$150 Indiana +8.5
$75 Purdue -13
North Carolina +5.5
$300 Louisville -9.5 (Fondy Fave)
$250 Illinois -13.5 (Fondy Fave)
Duke +18
$100 Michigan -23

12:30
Auburn -17.5
Iowa State +28.5
Miami Ohio +13.5

1:00
Buffalo -1
Kent State +1.5

2:00
Baylor +25
$300 Kansas -3
Colorado +13
Wyoming -12
Arkansas -39.5

3:00
Tulsa -13.5
Memphis -1
$300 Oregon -3 -105 (Fondy Fave)
Louisiana Tech -2.5
Arizona +3.5

3:30
$150 South Florida -4
Eastern Michigan +5.5
UAB +14
$100 Florida -7 -115
$100 Iowa +3
Maryland +4
$250 Virginia -4 (Fondy Fave)
Nebraska +21

4:00
Idaho +17.5
Florida Atlantic -6

5:00
Colorado State +6

6:00
Bowling Green -7

6:30
Stanford +13.5
$100 Washington State +6.5

6:45
South Carolina +3

7:00
Toledo -3.5
Kentucky -14
Troy -4
Middle Tenny State -13

7:45
Rutgers +6.5

8:00
$800 Ohio State -3 -125 (Fondy Fave)

9:00
Houston -3.5

10:00
$100 Arizona State -3 -105

Midnight
Hawaii -26.5

GOOD LUCK!!!
:smiley_acbe: ​
 
Last edited:
GL this week Fondy - great season and unbelievable job over the last three weeks.

Looking forward to the finalized plays.
 
Help Needed

Okay, quick question... Do I take Ohio State -3.5 -105 or Ohio State -3 -125?

It will be my largest play of the week. I think they win by DD's, but having the -3 makes me feel better with the road team. Which line do you think there is more value at?

I'm thinking of going around $600-$800 on it... and that's a $120-$160 difference in juice if I take it at -125

I'd like to get it finalized though before I go to bed tonight. Would love the feedback.
 
I would pay the -125, if they will cover you'll get the juice back anyway! If they only win by 3 and you lose, you'll be kicking yourself!
 
fondy...take the 3.

Responding to your question about MSU/Iowa

This is a sandwich game for MSU, after tOSU and before UM. They wont overlook Iowa, but Iowa will be able to run on them and that is MSU's weakness..Beanie ran for over 200 on them. I can see Iowa's defense playing well and Young getting over 100 on the MSU defense. Iowa is tough at home, tough game IMO.

I will be with you and BAR on tOSU as well.
 
Fondybadger said:
Okay, quick question... Do I take Ohio State -3.5 -105 or Ohio State -3 -125?

It will be my largest play of the week. I think they win by DD's, but having the -3 makes me feel better with the road team. Which line do you think there is more value at?

I'm thinking of going around $600-$800 on it... and that's a $120-$160 difference in juice if I take it at -125

I'd like to get it finalized though before I go to bed tonight. Would love the feedback.
Click to expand...

I say -3.5 at -105. ...if you really think they win by DD, you should try to find -4.5 for +125.
 
I don't see how you can bet Nebraska. They've lost by 35, 31, and 22 the last 3 weeks. 2 of those were at home.
 
GL Nick. Im with you. OSU is the best team I have seen so far this year IMO.

Love the Indiana play btw. Nothing like fading the Badgers the day after the Halloween Party.
 
cubsker said:
I don't see how you can bet Nebraska. They've lost by 35, 31, and 22 the last 3 weeks. 2 of those were at home.
Click to expand...

I understand what you're saying. My play on that game will more than likely be determined on what the Texas contingent has to say on the game and what Keller believes his chances are this week for Nebraska. I made the mistake of taking Nebraska last week when Sammy boy wasn't too enthused about their chances, so we'll see what he has to say this week.
 
signalcaller said:
GL Nick. Im with you. OSU is the best team I have seen so far this year IMO.

Love the Indiana play btw. Nothing like fading the Badgers the day after the Halloween Party.
Click to expand...

It is homecoming as well for Wisconsin. The city is going to be a disaster area like it was in 2002. Homecoming Parade Friday night while people are on state street in costumes? Um yah, they better have the tear gas ready this year. My wager on that game depends a lot on the line movement. I think it's pretty spot on and I'll probably end up going small on whatever side the line ends up on off that 7, although I could just end up being a homer and taking Wisconsin this week. Think I'm like 1-5 with them ATS this season or something like that. Think that's as many losses as I've had with Wisconsin as the last three years combined.
 
Fondybadger said:
LOCKED IN
$800 Ohio State -3 -125
Click to expand...


i really like that you are on tOSU, i am on PSU moneyline reasoning for me is since tOSU is my team i will win either way, that being said tOSU QB Boeckman almost single handed destroyed their season against MSU. I was shocked.

GL, i hope you cash it.
 
Getting back to Wisky/Indiana game, I'm PISSED off it's on the Big 10 network for the second week in a row. I'll be at a house less than 2 blocks from Camp Randall stadium and the cable package won't have the game on. I could go to the bar, but I have kegs reserved for a pre-party Friday night and then a full scale party on Saturday, now we can't even watch the damn game.
 
Nice work Fondy, continued GL to you. Looks like you are up about 9 dimes over the L3 weeks. Maybe I should quit fucking around and just tail you.
 
gl this week fondy, i hope you get OhioSt. This game reminds me of when Michigan came to happy valley and then a Brazilian style waxing came through.
 
Fondybadger said:
Getting back to Wisky/Indiana game, I'm PISSED off it's on the Big 10 network for the second week in a row. I'll be at a house less than 2 blocks from Camp Randall stadium and the cable package won't have the game on. I could go to the bar, but I have kegs reserved for a pre-party Friday night and then a full scale party on Saturday, now we can't even watch the damn game.
Click to expand...

Quit yer whinin' and get DTV, bitch!!!!
 
Thursday
$200 Virginia Tech -3

Not playing Air Force as there are too many injuries I don't have time to research.

Friday
Not playing, lean Fresno State
 
good luck there fondy...any writeup coming on uva? just wanted to see your thoughts on this to see if i can add anything else
 
Wolfpack17 said:
good luck there fondy...any writeup coming on uva? just wanted to see your thoughts on this to see if i can add anything else
Click to expand...

To be honest Jimmy I don't have a lot of time this week, and I'm not sure how many of those Saturday games are going to get bet. Most of my wagers this week are going to be on the seat of my pants (ie what I already know about the teams), and won't involve too much if any research or article reading. Hence tossing out games with important injury concerns. I'll attempt to get something on this game and Wisky/Indiana in the next 2 nights though.
 
KobeJames823 said:
GL this week Fondy, maybe not as busy as you have been the past few?
Click to expand...

Thinking I'll end up with around 10-15 plays for the week. They'll all be game wagers and that's about it... may log in and make a halftime or two wager if I'm around my comp on Saturday. Taking the week off of NFL as well.
 
have a good one fondy should be good times in madison...just sent you an email...

will be headed up to raleigh for the game on friday. go pack
 
fondy we have a direct tv sat dish mounted on a pole set in a 5gal bucket of concrete. take it wherever we need to go.

gl this weekend'an_horse'
 
We cant let fondys thread get to page 2 so heres a nice little bump. Hes gone for the weekend so might as well get it back up there
 
signalcaller said:
We cant let fondys thread get to page 2 so heres a nice little bump. Hes gone for the weekend so might as well get it back up there
Click to expand...

AH yee of little faith... Haven't finalized my card yet. Don't think for a minute my computer isn't with me in Madison. Just going to be too drunk this weekend to put in many halftime bets, but all day tomorrow it's Badger party action and then a house party here at night... so we'll have kegs flowing here all afternoon... I'll be good to go if I need to get on.
 
Additions
$150 Indiana +8.5
$75 Purdue -13
 $300 Louisville -9.5 (Fondy Fave)
$250 Illinois -13.5 (Fondy Fave)
 $100 Michigan -23
 $300 Kansas -3
 $300 Oregon -3 -105 (Fondy Fave)
 $150 South Florida -4
 $100 Florida -7 -115
$100 Iowa +3
 $250 Virginia -4 (Fondy Fave)
 $100 Washington State +6.5
 $100 Arizona State -3 -105
 
Scouting report: Indiana at a glance

Posted: Oct. 22, 2007

<table border="0"><tbody><tr><td>OFFENSE</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>When Terry Hoeppner came to Indiana before the 2005 season he brought with him the spread offense. Even without Hoeppner, who passed away in June after a lengthy battle with brain cancer, the Hoosiers run that system and possess the talent to move the ball. Quarterback Kellen Lewis, a 6-foot-1, 185-pound redshirt sophomore, is the catalyst. He averages 244 passing yards per game, the No. 4 mark in the Big Ten, and has 19 touchdown passes, tied for the No. 2 mark in the league. He also leads the team in rushing with an average of 59.5 yards per game. Five players have caught at least one touchdown pass and six players have at least 13 catches but Lewis' favorite target is wide receiver James Hardy. Hardy, who had 14 catches for 142 yards and two scores in the loss to Penn State, has 11 touchdown receptions in eight games this season and averages 16.6 yards per catch. Think cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu might double as Lewis' shadow on Saturday?
<table border="0"><tbody><tr><td>DEFENSE</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>With more athletic players in the program the Hoosiers have made strides in stopping opponents. This unit struggled in the 52-27 loss at Michigan State as the Spartans rolled up 558 yards and held the ball for 41 minutes 5 seconds. However, the Hoosiers showed improvement and mettle in a 31-26 loss to Penn State last week. They limited Penn State to field goals on three consecutive possessions after fumbles at the Indiana 12, 13 and 7 in the second half to prevent the Nittany Lions from blowing the game open. Sophomore safety Austin Thomas (71 tackles) and sophomore linebacker Will Patterson (60 tackles) are seventh and ninth, respectively, in the conference in tackles. Sophomore end/tackle Greg Middleton is second in the Big Ten in sacks (9½) and tied for fifth in tackles for loss (10½). Nevertheless, teams average 159.5 rushing yards per game, which suits UW's strength.
<table border="0"><tbody><tr><td>SPECIAL TEAMS</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>The Hoosiers will challenge UW's special teams. Tracy Porter averages 14.6 yards on punt returns; Marcus Thigpen and James Bailey average 27.1 yards and 23.4 yards, respectively, on kickoff returns. UW's coverage units will have to be sharp. Redshirt junior kicker Austin Starr is outstanding. He has recorded 12 touchbacks in 56 kickoffs and has made 15 of 16 field-goal attempts (93.8%). Perhaps most impressive, he has made all seven attempts of 40 to 49 yards. Punter Michael Hines is 10th in the Big Ten with a 38.7-yard average, meaning UW's David Gilreath could have a big day.
Jeff Potrykus
 
Tough one to cover

UW faces test with Hardy

By JEFF POTRYKUS
jpotrykus@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Oct. 25, 2007

Madison - Bret Bielema caught a brief but revealing glimpse of the challenge the University of Wisconsin secondary will face this week against Indiana.
"I remember sitting at home Saturday night and seeing the touchdown pass that he basically plucked over the top of a Penn State defender," Bielema said, "and put the ball down right in front of him."
Meet fourth-year junior James Hardy, a 6-foot-7, 220-pound wide receiver who possesses leaping ability, remarkable hand-eye coordination and better-than-average speed for his size.
Hardy, who decided to give up basketball after the 2004-'05 season and concentrate on football, has blossomed into one of the better receivers in the Big Ten Conference. In a 36-31 loss to Penn State last week, Hardy caught 14 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns.
The 7-yard touchdown catch to which Bielema referred was Hardy's 13th reception of the day and his most impressive, because of the ease with which he beat cornerback Justin King.
With King in single coverage on the short side of the field, Hardy ran a shallow fade toward the left corner of the end zone. Quarterback Kellen Lewis put the ball over the outstretched hands of the 6-foot, 186-pound King and Hardy just reached out and snatched the ball over King's head and hands.
"He looks like he's about 8-foot-10 sometimes," Penn State coach Joe Paterno said.
How will UW attempt to defend Hardy?
When UW faced Michigan State's Devin Thomas earlier this season, the plan was to have junior cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu shadow Thomas as often as possible. That plan had to be shelved when Ikegwuonu left the game in the first half, with what he described as severe flu-like symptoms. Thomas had four catches for 111 yards and a touchdown.
Ikegwuonu has been unavailable for interviews for the last two weeks, but secondary coach Kerry Cooks suggested the keys will be mixing and disguising coverages.
"There are going to be times when a guy will be matched up on him, one-on-one," Cooks said. "There are going to be times when there is going to be somebody underneath and somebody over the top.
"We've just got to do a good job of not showing them which one we're doing."
Hardy enters the game with 45 catches for 748 yards, 16.6 yards per catch and 11 touchdowns in eight games.
His average of 93.5 receiving yards per game this season is No. 3 in the Big Ten and No. 20 nationally. No other Big Ten receiver has more than seven touchdown catches and only one other receiver in the nation, Michael Crabtree of pass-happy Texas Tech, has more touchdown catches, with 17.
Although Hardy was held to one catch for 8 yards in a loss to UW last season, he had missed the previous two games while serving a team suspension.
"He has made great improvement," said Indiana coach Bill Lynch, adding that Hardy has seen just about every type of coverage imaginable. "He is a guy that is a very, very hard-working football player that really prepares every day."
Indiana features a quarterback (Kellen Lewis) who is a dangerous runner and three wide receivers, in addition to Hardy, with at least 15 catches this season.
"My gosh, the quarterback throws a nice ball," Cooks said. "And we've harped on our guys we're not making this game about just Hardy . . . Because if you focus all on Hardy, somebody else is capable of beating you."
Yet, with 11 of the team's 19 receiving touchdowns and 748 of the team's 1,966 receiving yards, Hardy is the Hoosiers' No. 1 threat.
"It's not too hard as a coach to figure out, you know, he's 6-7," Bielema said. "There's a little bit of a mismatch issue there if you leave him one-on-one with certain players.
"We've got to understand where he is at all times and be able to defend the situation and keep in mind there's 10 other guys on the field."
 
Defense initiative

UW's unit hopes to limit Indiana's spread attack

By JEFF POTRYKUS
jpotrykus@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Oct. 22, 2007

Madison - They appeared rejuvenated, sounded confident without crossing the line bordering arrogance and seemed eager to prove the defensive unit that patrolled Camp Randall Stadium last week was legitimate, not merely the beneficiary of an inexperienced and impotent offense.
"There is no question in my mind we are going to have a good week . . . a great week of practice," University of Wisconsin junior linebacker Jonathan Casillas said. "We've just got to bring it Saturday like we did this week."
But are they capable?
UW's defense was nearly impenetrable in the 44-3 victory over Northern Illinois, allowing the Huskies minus-13 rushing yards, 99 total yards and six first downs.
That performance came against a team that featured a pocket passer with a sore ankle and a pro-style scheme ranked 105th in the nation in total offense (322.1 ypg) and 114th in scoring offense (17.0 ppg).
Next up is a critical Big Ten Conference game against Indiana (5-3, 2-3), which boasts two legitimate stars in quarterback Kellen Lewis and wide receiver James Hardy and runs the type of spread offense that has frustrated UW several times in 2007.
Washington State, Nevada-Las Vegas, The Citadel, Michigan State and Illinois all featured a variation of the spread offense against UW (6-2, 2-2). Although UW won four of those five games, the defense surrendered a total of 25 plays of 20 yards or longer, for a combined 811 yards, an average of 32.4 yards per play.
"The previous spread teams we played we had mental errors," Casillas said. "We had mental errors and they just capitalized on them."
Indiana has the capacity to do the same.
Lewis, a 6-foot-1, 185-pound redshirt sophomore, averages 303.5 yards of offense per game, third in the Big Ten and 15th nationally. He averages 244.0 passing yards per game, the No. 4 mark in the Big Ten, and has 19 touchdown passes, tied for the No. 2 mark in the league.
He has rushed for five touchdowns in eight games and leads the Hoosiers in rushing at 59.5 yards per game. He lost three second-half fumbles in the Hoosiers' 31-26 loss to Penn State last week but he also scored on a 56-yard run and finished with 324 total yards.
"He is a darn good football player," Penn State coach Joe Paterno said. "You try to stay solid and try to stay in front of him and not give up the big gainer."
Any team that fails to keep Lewis inside the pocket or opens running lanes because players aren't in their assigned gaps is asking for trouble.
Lewis has had a hand in 31 plays of 20 yards or longer this season - 24 passes and seven runs - for 11 touchdowns and an average of 37.4 yards per play.
His No. 1 target is wide receiver James Hardy, who had 14 catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Penn State and has 11 touchdowns this season.
It seems logical that UW would ask junior cornerback Jack Ikegwuonu, who has played well in the last two weeks, to slow Hardy. When the teams met last season in Bloomington, Hardy finished with one catch for eight yards and UW cruised to a 52-17 victory.
Lewis, who was making his second start in that game, completed 13 of 29 passes for 113 yards and rushed 11 times for just 31 yards.
He is more experienced, with 16 consecutive starts and 17 overall, more confident and a better overall player this season.
"It definitely starts with him," cornerback Allen Langford said. "Those type of offenses start with the quarterback.
"Kellen Lewis can run. He can throw and run. And he is having a really good year from what I've seen."
Strong safety Aubrey Pleasant did not play against Indiana last season so he got his first extended look at Lewis when he studied video on Sunday.
"This quarterback is good," he said. "He can throw the ball and he can move. But he is not looking to run (initially).
"That is the interesting thing I saw on tape. He is looking to pass the ball and then if nothing is there he will run the ball.
"He can scoot. He can go."
If UW's defenders get out of position or tackle as poorly as they did against previous spread teams, Lewis and his teammates will capitalize on those errors.

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Less pain, more gains

UW's Hill hopes staying healthy helps him maintain strong play

By JEFF POTRYKUS
jpotrykus@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Oct. 23, 2007

Madison - P.J. Hill still grimaces when he reflects upon the final five games of the 2006 season.
In short, his mind was willing, but his body was shot.
"My mind was right," the University of Wisconsin sophomore tailback said this week, "but physically I wasn't doing too well."
Slowed by leg, neck and shoulder problems, Hill mustered 397 yards and two touchdowns in 109 carries, for 3.6 yards per carry and 79.4 yards per game, over the final five games.
Hill entered that five-game stretch with 202 carries and 1,172 yards, for averages of 5.8 yards per carry and 146.5 yards per game.
Fast-forward to this week, as UW (6-2, 2-2 Big Ten Conference) prepares for a critical game against Indiana (5-3, 2-3).
Hill has 200 carries and 1,009 yards, for averages of 5.0 yards per carry and 126.1 yards per game.
The total yardage and averages are down from last season, but Hill, save for three stitches in his knee, is as healthy as any tailback can be after eight games.
"I'm not coming out of games with shoulder problems," he said. "I'm not getting stingers like last year."
Hill's pains are so minor that he appeared stunned when told he has only two fewer carries than he did at this point last season.
"Really?" he asked. "I feel pretty good."
Hill's off-season conditioning work and his conscious choice to avoid unnecessary punishment have combined to limit the wear and tear he has endured so far.
"Every game he's going to take shots," UW coach Bret Bielema said. "This is the Big Ten Conference. People play hard. People hit hard.
"To this point, (Hill) has been able to stay on track and have success . . . His goal was to make his body more prepared to maybe withstand the long haul physically."
The high point during the final five games of last season was a 31-carry, 148-yard effort in Week 10 against Penn State.
However, he averaged 2.8 yards per carry the next week at Iowa and only 1.9 yards per carry in the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas.
"I was banged up a lot," Hill said. "When I got the ball I felt like I had to do something, just whatever I could, because my body wasn't holding up."
Down the stretch last season, 20 carries was an onerous load for Hill.
"Last year it felt like a lot," he said. "It was a big load. I was like: 'Man, I can't take it.' "
This season?
"My body is holding up and I feel I can play the whole game," Hill said. "Right now 20 carries feels like nothing. It doesn't feel like a lot.
"After the game if they tell me I had 20 or 25 carries, I don't feel it."
Hill appeared fresh last week in UW's 44-3 victory over Northern Illinois. He gained a season-high 184 yards in just 21 carries, tied for his second-lowest total of the season.
He had runs of 38 and 72 yards, the latter for a touchdown. The 72-yard run was his longest of the season; the 38-yarder was his third-longest of the season.
"When I get the chance to, I can do it," Hill said of generating long runs. "I had the opportunity to take one 72 yards and I did it."
A fresh and healthy Hill could be critical during UW's final four Big Ten games - Indiana, at Ohio State, home against Michigan and at Minnesota.
"I'm going to do as much as I can when the ball is in my hands," Hill said. "If I get the opportunity, I'm going to take it. If it is blocking, I'm going to do my job."

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Big Ten notes: Down the stretch they come

By MARK STEWART
mstewart@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Oct. 23, 2007

The game that symbolizes Big Ten football in 2007 took place two weeks ago in Iowa City.
Illinois, which was 3-0 in the conference with two straight victories over ranked opponents, played injury-riddled Iowa, which had lost eight straight league games. The game was one Illinois should have won comfortably. Instead, the Hawkeyes sprung the upset.
Last place beat first place. In the Big Ten, you never know what to expect.
The first half of the conference season has been marked by Michigan's resurgence, Illinois' rise, Northwestern's rebound and the reloading of Ohio State's program.
Here are five questions about the league race to consider heading down the stretch.
Can any team stop Ohio State? The Buckeyes can become the first program to win three straight Big Ten championships since Michigan completed a five-year run in 1992.
All that stands in their way is a difficult schedule - at Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Illinois and at Michigan - to close out the season. According to the NCAA's formula, the Buckeyes' remaining slate is the toughest in the Big Ten and fourth-hardest in the nation.
Can C.J. Bacher and Northwestern keep this up? If there was vote for the most valuable player of the league right now, the junior quarterback would receive plenty of support. Not only does Bacher's average of 349.8 passing yards per game in Big Ten play exceed any other passer's by 77 in the league, his 65.5% completion rate is better than every starter in the league except Michigan's Chad Henne.
The Wildcats (5-3, 2-2) are still lightweights on defense but they've already proved they can compensate for their flaws on that side of the ball by outscoring teams. The offense should be even better thanks to the return of junior tailback Tyrell Sutton, who missed five weeks because of a high-ankle sprain and is expected to make his first start Saturday since Week 2.
Northwestern's final four opponents combine for an 8-11 conference record. After a trip to 2-2 Purdue Saturday, the Wildcats have home games with punchless Iowa (1-4) and defense-deficient Indiana (2-3) before wrapping up the regular season at 3-2 Illinois.
The Wildcats are in good position to finish .500 or better in the league for the fourth time in the last five years. Not bad for a team that lost to Duke a month ago.
Who will win the race for third? Ohio State and Michigan have proved to be the class of the league so far. Who's next?
Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin and Northwestern, which all have two conference losses, are the contenders in the race for third place and a New Year's Day bowl berth.
Illinois has a slight edge at this point because it has three victories and has beaten Penn State and Wisconsin. The Badgers have the toughest road, with consecutive games against undefeated Ohio State and Michigan.
Here are the records for our third-place contenders' final opponents: Wisconsin (10-7), Penn State (7-5), Illinois (6-6), Purdue (8-10) and Northwestern (8-11).
Will Indiana play 13? The Hoosiers, owners of a league-long 13-year bowl drought, needed one victory in their last three games last season to qualify for a bowl but closed the season with three straight losses. This year they've failed to take advantage of their first two chances to get a sixth victory that would make them bowl-eligible.
Indiana is in much better position to get over the hump this year, but the Hoosiers (5-3, 2-3) are going to have to defend better, especially against the run.
They rank last in league contests against the run by allowing 216 yards per game, and their opponents' 4.6-yard average per rush ranks eighth. Each of the their final opponents - Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ball State and Purdue - has a running back capable of taking advantage of that weakness.
Is Minnesota's defense that bad? Yes.
When coach Tim Brewster dismissed four players for their alleged involvement in a sexual assault last summer even though just one of those players had been charged at the time, he made a strong statement about the type of conduct he expected of his players. However, the move cost the team three key defensive players, including standout cornerback Dominic Jones.
Those players are missed. The Gophers have allowed more than 500 yards in six of their eight games. In their best performance, they held Ohio State to 459 yards in a 30-7 loss.
At 533.6 yards per game, the Gophers are on pace to allow the highest average per game for a Minnesota defense since 1950, the first year that year-by-year opponent statistics are listed in the team's media guide. Opponents are scoring 37.5 points per game against Minnesota, the second-worst total during that stretch; the 1983 team allowed 47.1 points per game.

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Big Ten Preview

By MARK STEWART
mstewart@journalsentinel.com

Posted: Oct. 25, 2007

OHIO STATE (8-0, 4-0) at PENN STATE (6-2, 3-2)

When: 7 p.m. Saturday (ABC, Channel 12)
Players to watch: James Laurinaitis, Ohio State and Dan Conner, Penn State - The game's best players will be on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the linebacker corps.
Recent history: The Buckeyes won, 28-6, last season, but Penn State scored a 17-10 victory in Happy Valley in 2005 that is Ohio State's last regular-season loss.
Key statistic: Penn State is second in league games with 18 sacks. Ohio State has allowed just four sacks against Big Ten foes, which ties for the league low.
Bottom line: In a game that pits two strong defenses, big-play threats like tailback Chris Wells and receiver Brian Robiskie will get Ohio State over the hump.
NORTHWESTERN (5-3, 2-2) at PURDUE (6-2, 2-2)

When: 11 a.m. Saturday (BTN)
Player to watch: Tyrell Sutton, Northwestern - The junior running back, who missed five games because of a high-ankle sprain, is expected to make his first start since Game 2.
Recent history: Purdue scored a 31-10 victory on the road last season to snap a two-game series winning streak by the Wildcats.
Key statistic: The offenses will take center stage in this showdown of spread attacks, but can Northwestern beat a quality team giving up a league-worst 6.5 yards per play against conference competition?
Bottom line: Purdue, the team with the better defense and home-field advantage, snaps Northwestern's three-game winning streak.
MICH. STATE (5-3, 1-3) at IOWA (3-5, 1-4)

When: 11 a.m. Saturday (ESPN2)
Player to watch: Javon Ringer, Michigan State - The Big Ten's leading rusher in league play with 145.5 yards per game needs 19 yards to become the Spartans' first 1,000-yard rusher since 2001.
Recent history: Iowa beat the Spartans, 38-16, in Iowa City in 2004. The teams have split the last six games with the home team winning each time.
Key statistic: Iowa's Jake Christensen and Michigan State's Brian Hoyer have thrown three and four interceptions, respectively, key reasons the Hawkeyes are tied for first in the league in turnovers margin at plus-8 and the Spartans are third at plus-6.
Bottom line: Iowa is a much-better team at home, but scoring 15 points per game only gets a team so far. Go with Michigan State.
MINNESOTA (1-7, 0-4) at MICHIGAN (6-2, 4-0)

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday (ESPN Classic).
Player to watch: Mike Hart, Michigan - Will the Wolverines' star tailback, the nation's third-leading rusher with 154 yards per game, be on the field or the bench with an ankle injury?
Recent history: Minnesota stunned the Wolverines with a 23-20 victory at Michigan Stadium two years ago, but Michigan reclaimed the Little Brown Jug with a 28-14 victory last season. It was Michigan's 26th victory over the Gophers in the last 28 meetings.
Key statistic: The Gophers defense has allowed 500 yards or more in all but two games this year. North Dakota State, a championship subdivision school, had 585.
Bottom line: The status of Hart and quarterback Chad Henne is uncertain, but it will be irrelevant against the Gophers' Swiss cheese defense.
BALL STATE (5-3) at ILLINOIS (5-3)

When: 11 a.m. Saturday (Big Ten Network)
Player to watch: Nate Davis, Ball State - The sophomore quarterback nearly engineered an upset at Nebraska last month with 422 yards passing and three touchdowns.
Recent history: First meeting.
Key statistic: The Fighting Illini's league-best running game has become mortal the last two weeks. In two losses, Illinois has averaged 137 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry compared to 261 and 5.7 in the first six games.
Bottom line: Ball State is two points away from being 7-1 but will have a difficult time taking the physical pounding of a Fighting Illini attack that will probably try to re-establish the running game.

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weren't we against eachother in this same Northwestern vs. Purdue game two years ago?...oh well...GL fondy...
 
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