Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Rough Monday night with those two damn totals. Just too many guys left on base in the Boston game and the Cubs bullpen knows how to blow leads. Ah well. Go back to the well on Tuesday.
Overall MLB Record 152-95-2 +$5016
Money Line Plays 113-64-1 +$4513
Run Line Plays 14-8 +$1305 (17-5 +$1538)
Totals 23-20-1 -$645
Parlays 2-3 -$157
$34,120 in total wagers
$137 average wager
<st1:city><st1> </st1></st1:city>$150 Braves -220
I know I said to be careful with some of these bigger lines this week yesterday, but I can't resist this play. Too much stands out for me.
- Braves are 4-1 playing on Tuesdays
- Nationals are 0-6 playing on Tuesdays
- Braves average 5.8 runs on the road
- Nationals average 3.5 runs at home
- Tim Hudson has a 1.57 road ERA averaging 7.7 IP per start.
- Tim Hudson has a career 1.30 ERA and a WHIP of 1.010 against the Nationals in 5 starts
- Jerome Williams has an ERA of 6.88 in his last three starts
- Nationals are 0-5 when Jerome Williams starts a game this season
$250 Cubs/Mets under 8.5
$100 Cubs +140
Getting Zambrano at that number is too much value for me to pass up. Most of the the numbers point to Maine and the Mets in a low scorign game though.
$320 Arizona -110
- Arizona is 7-0 on the road with money line of -100 to -125
- Arizona is 26-17 vs Colorado the last three years
- Arizona is 14-8 @ Colorado the last three years
- Randy Johnson is 14-7 in his career versus Colorado w/ a 2.35 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP
- Jason Hirsh is averaging 5.3 IP his last three starts with a 5.62 ERA and 1.875 WHIP
- Colorado's bullpen has an ERA above 5, and a WHIP above 1.50
Slight lean towards Twins/Indians under 9.5 as both starting pitchers have solid career numbers against the other team.
$100 Detroit +120
I just see some value with Verlander at this price
$150 Yankees -145
Mussina is pitching like he's 27 and John Danks is pitching like he should be in AA again. I'm afraid how bad he'll self destruct against that Yankees lineup.
Tempted to fade King Felix in his first start back, especially when Esobar has been pitching so well...
Game Leans (317-239 +56.99 units)
I'm going to keep track of a pick for every game this season for shits and giggles. These are NOT plays, but are the side I lean as I want to see my pick % for the season. All leans are graded as 1 unit wagers on dogs and to win 1 unit on favorites.
Braves -220
Brewers -120
Marlins +105
Cubs +140
Giants +105
Arizona -110
Reds +105
Cardinals +155
Cleveland -130
Baltimore -110
Detroit +120
Tampa Bay -150
Yankees -145
Angels +110
Oakland -200
Overall MLB Record 152-95-2 +$5016
Money Line Plays 113-64-1 +$4513
Run Line Plays 14-8 +$1305 (17-5 +$1538)
Totals 23-20-1 -$645
Parlays 2-3 -$157
$34,120 in total wagers
$137 average wager
<st1:city><st1> </st1></st1:city>$150 Braves -220
I know I said to be careful with some of these bigger lines this week yesterday, but I can't resist this play. Too much stands out for me.
- Braves are 4-1 playing on Tuesdays
- Nationals are 0-6 playing on Tuesdays
- Braves average 5.8 runs on the road
- Nationals average 3.5 runs at home
- Tim Hudson has a 1.57 road ERA averaging 7.7 IP per start.
- Tim Hudson has a career 1.30 ERA and a WHIP of 1.010 against the Nationals in 5 starts
- Jerome Williams has an ERA of 6.88 in his last three starts
- Nationals are 0-5 when Jerome Williams starts a game this season
$250 Cubs/Mets under 8.5
$100 Cubs +140
Getting Zambrano at that number is too much value for me to pass up. Most of the the numbers point to Maine and the Mets in a low scorign game though.
$320 Arizona -110
- Arizona is 7-0 on the road with money line of -100 to -125
- Arizona is 26-17 vs Colorado the last three years
- Arizona is 14-8 @ Colorado the last three years
- Randy Johnson is 14-7 in his career versus Colorado w/ a 2.35 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP
- Jason Hirsh is averaging 5.3 IP his last three starts with a 5.62 ERA and 1.875 WHIP
- Colorado's bullpen has an ERA above 5, and a WHIP above 1.50
Slight lean towards Twins/Indians under 9.5 as both starting pitchers have solid career numbers against the other team.
$100 Detroit +120
I just see some value with Verlander at this price
$150 Yankees -145
Mussina is pitching like he's 27 and John Danks is pitching like he should be in AA again. I'm afraid how bad he'll self destruct against that Yankees lineup.
Tempted to fade King Felix in his first start back, especially when Esobar has been pitching so well...
Game Leans (317-239 +56.99 units)
I'm going to keep track of a pick for every game this season for shits and giggles. These are NOT plays, but are the side I lean as I want to see my pick % for the season. All leans are graded as 1 unit wagers on dogs and to win 1 unit on favorites.
Braves -220
Brewers -120
Marlins +105
Cubs +140
Giants +105
Arizona -110
Reds +105
Cardinals +155
Cleveland -130
Baltimore -110
Detroit +120
Tampa Bay -150
Yankees -145
Angels +110
Oakland -200
GOOD LUCK!!!
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