Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Went 2-3 on Saturday but hit my larger two plays and won $211. Bit upset that I took Padres for "action" purposes without really capping the game that hard. Those normally come back and bite you in the ass, but I'll probably never learn. Anyways, Sunday's card has a lot of top tier pitchers against guys you look at and say "who?" A part of me wants to fade some of these games that look too good to be true, but I'll just take it easy on them. Once again the dogs were pretty friendly yesterday. Look for that to continue the next week or so.
Overall MLB Record 163-105-2 +$5045
Money Line Plays 120-70-1 +$4378
Run Line Plays 17-11 +$1681 (20-8 +$1498)
Totals 24-21-1 -$857
Parlays 2-3 -$157
$37,690 in total wagers
$140 average wager
$150 Diamondbacks Run Line +140
I really like the value on this play with how Arizona plays on the road as a favorite and the starting pitching mismatch. Randy Johnson has solid career numbers against the Pirates going 7-3 in 10 starts with a 1.66 ERA and a WHIP of 0.738. The Pirates are 2-6 in Paul Maholm's starts this season and he has an ERA of 6.35 in his last three starts. That said there are a few things that I don't particularly care for about this game. The first is the line movement trends favor Pittsburgh. Second Arizona has struggled to hit lefties this season and are only 3-7 when facing a lefty starter. That said I'm pretty confident that RJ will keep things in line and Arizona will score enough runs to make this wager a winner.
- I can't see the Indians losing the series, but Aaron Harang has some nice numbers against the Tribe that makes me a bit apprehensive.
- Thompson has pitched pretty well for St. Louis, but Verlander and the Tigers should be able to make it a sweep. Not a whole lot of value in this game though. If I made any play it would be a smaller one on Detroit RL, but I just don't feel very comfortable with it.
$60 Baltimore -160
I shouldn't play this game, I really shouldn't with Baltimore having a line this high on the road, but Bedard is turning into a top tier pitcher while Micah Bowie belongs in the pen or the minors. It should be interesting to see how he reacts to his first start this season, and I don't think it will be too impressive. Another key component of this wager is that Baltimore hits lefties a lot better than Washington does.
$200 Braves -125
Going to fade the Red Sox and Kason Gabbard. I can't find out too much about Kason as he's not a premium prospect and probably projects as a 5th starter, long relief, or AAAA player (4 A's are on purpose). Gabbard started four games last season for the Red Sox, not that too many of us will remember. He had a 3.51 ERA in 25.2 innings, but his WHIP of 1.56 and his 16:15 BB:K's ratio is awful. He has put up decent numbers in AAA this season, but it's tough to judge too much on that. I like my value here with Hudson as the Braves are 7-2 in his starts this season including 3-1 on the road where Tim has a ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.867.
$300 Mets RL +140
$150 Yankees/Mets Over 9.5
This one looks like such a no brainer that you need to start looking around and wondering why the line isn't higher. John Maine has a 2.15 ERA this season and the Mets have gone 7-1 in his starts. He does have a 1.730 WHIP on the road in three starts that is a bit worrisome. That said the Mets bats are starting to heat up big time while the Yankees hitters have been sputtering this past week until yesterday when the Mets already had the game in the bag. Tyler Clippard who's making his MLB debut has a 2.76 ERA in 39.3 IP's this season. He has a solid 17:41 walk to K ration, that said his velocity went down last season and topped out in the 92 MPH range and normally was around 88-90. He has an above average curve and changeup, which he throws for strikes and has long arms and a lanky body which may be deceptive to the Mets hitters the first few innings. When he misses with his pitches it's normally up in the zone and he's extremely prone to giving up the long ball. I look for him to hold strong through the line-up the first time through, but around the 4th inning on he won't be so lucky. He projects to being a No. 4 starter, but in my opinion that shouldn't be until mid-season 2008.
Game Leans (358-268 +67.75 units)
I'm going to keep track of a pick for every game this season for shits and giggles. These are NOT plays, but are the side I lean as I want to see my pick % for the season. All leans are graded as 1 unit wagers on dogs and to win 1 unit on favorites.
Diamondbacks -120
Cleveland -145
Tigers -195
Orioles -155
Phillies -135
Marlins +130
Braves -125
Twins +140
Rangers +135
White Sox +140
Kansas City +150
Dodgers +130
Mariner -155
Giants +120
Mets -150
Overall MLB Record 163-105-2 +$5045
Money Line Plays 120-70-1 +$4378
Run Line Plays 17-11 +$1681 (20-8 +$1498)
Totals 24-21-1 -$857
Parlays 2-3 -$157
$37,690 in total wagers
$140 average wager
$150 Diamondbacks Run Line +140
I really like the value on this play with how Arizona plays on the road as a favorite and the starting pitching mismatch. Randy Johnson has solid career numbers against the Pirates going 7-3 in 10 starts with a 1.66 ERA and a WHIP of 0.738. The Pirates are 2-6 in Paul Maholm's starts this season and he has an ERA of 6.35 in his last three starts. That said there are a few things that I don't particularly care for about this game. The first is the line movement trends favor Pittsburgh. Second Arizona has struggled to hit lefties this season and are only 3-7 when facing a lefty starter. That said I'm pretty confident that RJ will keep things in line and Arizona will score enough runs to make this wager a winner.
- I can't see the Indians losing the series, but Aaron Harang has some nice numbers against the Tribe that makes me a bit apprehensive.
- Thompson has pitched pretty well for St. Louis, but Verlander and the Tigers should be able to make it a sweep. Not a whole lot of value in this game though. If I made any play it would be a smaller one on Detroit RL, but I just don't feel very comfortable with it.
$60 Baltimore -160
I shouldn't play this game, I really shouldn't with Baltimore having a line this high on the road, but Bedard is turning into a top tier pitcher while Micah Bowie belongs in the pen or the minors. It should be interesting to see how he reacts to his first start this season, and I don't think it will be too impressive. Another key component of this wager is that Baltimore hits lefties a lot better than Washington does.
$200 Braves -125
Going to fade the Red Sox and Kason Gabbard. I can't find out too much about Kason as he's not a premium prospect and probably projects as a 5th starter, long relief, or AAAA player (4 A's are on purpose). Gabbard started four games last season for the Red Sox, not that too many of us will remember. He had a 3.51 ERA in 25.2 innings, but his WHIP of 1.56 and his 16:15 BB:K's ratio is awful. He has put up decent numbers in AAA this season, but it's tough to judge too much on that. I like my value here with Hudson as the Braves are 7-2 in his starts this season including 3-1 on the road where Tim has a ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.867.
$300 Mets RL +140
$150 Yankees/Mets Over 9.5
This one looks like such a no brainer that you need to start looking around and wondering why the line isn't higher. John Maine has a 2.15 ERA this season and the Mets have gone 7-1 in his starts. He does have a 1.730 WHIP on the road in three starts that is a bit worrisome. That said the Mets bats are starting to heat up big time while the Yankees hitters have been sputtering this past week until yesterday when the Mets already had the game in the bag. Tyler Clippard who's making his MLB debut has a 2.76 ERA in 39.3 IP's this season. He has a solid 17:41 walk to K ration, that said his velocity went down last season and topped out in the 92 MPH range and normally was around 88-90. He has an above average curve and changeup, which he throws for strikes and has long arms and a lanky body which may be deceptive to the Mets hitters the first few innings. When he misses with his pitches it's normally up in the zone and he's extremely prone to giving up the long ball. I look for him to hold strong through the line-up the first time through, but around the 4th inning on he won't be so lucky. He projects to being a No. 4 starter, but in my opinion that shouldn't be until mid-season 2008.
Game Leans (358-268 +67.75 units)
I'm going to keep track of a pick for every game this season for shits and giggles. These are NOT plays, but are the side I lean as I want to see my pick % for the season. All leans are graded as 1 unit wagers on dogs and to win 1 unit on favorites.
Diamondbacks -120
Cleveland -145
Tigers -195
Orioles -155
Phillies -135
Marlins +130
Braves -125
Twins +140
Rangers +135
White Sox +140
Kansas City +150
Dodgers +130
Mariner -155
Giants +120
Mets -150
GOOD LUCK!!!
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