Fondybadger's MLB 5.20.15 - Wednesday

[Fondybadger]

2015 MLB Record 128-144-4 -$1172
5/13 5-11 -$263
5/15 8-6-1 +$64
Faves 24-38 -$2019
Dogs 44-52 -$415
Run Lines 30-27 +$847
Overs 26-18-3 +$650
Under 1-5 -$283
Team Totals 1-1-1 +$40

2:20pm
$100 Astros -168 (writeup in post #2)

7:00pm
$160 Nationals o3.5 -125 & $60 Nationals -1.5 +155
$100 Twins +141 & $100 Twins o3.5 -110
$100 Angels +116
$50 Baltimore -136 & $50 Mariners/Orioles u8 -110
$50 Tigers -1.5 +140 & $50 Brewers/Tigers o8 +100
$60 Diamondbacks +130
$50 Mets -104
$50 Rangers +153
$50 Rays -1.5 +120

8:10-8:40pm
$50 Whites Sox -1.5 +160 & $50 White Sox o4 -105
$50 Royals -1.5 +140
$40 Rockies -125

10:00pm
$100 Padres -1.5 +160
$50 Dodgers -1.5 +150

:tiphat:

 

[Fondybadger]

2:20pm
$100 Astros -168

Would like to take the RL but Astros have been wining too many one run games while Oakland has been losing too many one run games. I'll take the home team just needing the win here even if I'm paying a bit higher price than I'd hope for (seriously Oakland isn't nearly as bad as they're playing or maybe I still have last year in my mind!!!). Couple stats that jump out to me in this game. Oakland is 1-8 against lefty starters on the season. They're also 1-12 in day games (Houston is 8-2).

I also took into consideration Oakland is 5-13 in May, their starting pitcher Jesse Hahn has struggled (Oak lost his last three starts while he's had a 6.48 ERA and a 1.681 WHIP without getting through more than 6.3 and his average start in seven appearances is 5.5 innings), Oakland's struggling bullpen (4.99 ERA and 1.345 WHIP which jump a bit higher to a 5.48 ERA and 1.406 WHIP on road), A's struggling to hit lefties (3.6 runs per game with a .248 average), Houston's solid bullpen (2.20 ERA and 0.821 WHIP at home), and Keuchel's moderate success against the A's (team is 5-3 in his starts against them with a 3.21 ERA and 1.275 WHIP). Biggest concern I have is that the Astros have struggled to score runs at home this year with an average of 3.6 runs and a paltry 0.211 average. I've also been horrible wagering on favorites this year and that has me pausing slightly until I start picking it up there.

 

[Fondybadger]

7:00pm
$100 Twins +141
$100 Twins o3.5 -110

Twins playing well. Pirates not so much. Twins kill lefty starters (6.3 runs per game on a .290 average). Pirates' Locke has struggled with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts, Pelfrey not much better with a 4.80 ERA (1.800 WHIP too, ouch!). Good value on an overinflated line in my opinion.

 

[Fondybadger]

7:00pm
$100 Angels +116

Angels have won 6 of their last 8. Toronto has won 2 of their last 8 (well last 10 actually). While Toronto's Hutchinson has a 3-0 record on the year his run support and Toronto bullpen (2.70 ERA at home) has been getting the job done as he's got a 6.17 ERA and 1.512 WHIP (team is 5-3 in his starts). Angels are 10-2 in Weaver's career when he starts against Toronto with a 3.39 ERA and 1.049 WHIP. While Hutchinson is 0-2 with 6.52 ERA and 1.553 ERA in comparison. As an Angel backer not a huge fan of how Hutchinson home splits are a lot better looking and Weaver's road splits are a lot worse looking. Keeping me off a larger play.

 

[Play2win]

Agree Min and Hou, BOL today Fondy

 

[Fondybadger]

7:05pm
$50 Baltimore -136
$50 Mariners/Orioles u8 -110
They've only taken on a lefty starter five times this season but they average 7 runs a game with a .322 average. Wei-Yin Chen has only allowed 5 runs in his last 20 innings pitched for Baltimore and has a sub-1 WHIP at home. Elias has pitched well on the season for Seattle and weather looks like it could be a bit crappy with wind blowing in from left at 10+ mph. Seattle averaging 3.5 runs a game with a .239 average against lefties (.219 average on the road).

$160 Nationals o3.5 -125
$60 Nationals -1.5 +155
The Yankees have really been struggling as of late and Washington has been red hot. Yankees have given up six+ runs in four of their last five games. Nationals have scored 4 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Nationals are 3-0 in Zimmermann's last three starts where he has a 1.89 ERA and 1.263 WHIP. Debated on taking the o7 -115 instead of the higher juiced team total, but didn't have confidence in Yankees to put runs on the board.

$50 Tigers -1.5 +140
$50 Brewers/Tigers o8 +100
Lohse has struggled with giving up the long ball all season and with the wind blowing out at around ten mph I'll give it a go. Brewers have started to put runs on the board a lot more often lately as well. See this as a high scoring games somewhere in the 9-6 range for the Tigers.

$60 Diamondbacks +130
The Marlins are struggling to put runs on the board in losing eight of their last nine games. I'll take the decent sized dog in Arizona when their starting pitcher, Chase Anderson, has an ERA & WHIP under 1 (0.98 & 0.873) in his last three starts. Would be more on Arizona with any other Marlin on the mound besides David Phelps. He's been pitching solid all season with a 1.75 ERA as a starter in 36 innings, but the Marlins are just 3-3 in those six starts.

 

[Fondybadger]

7:10pm
$50 Mets -104
$50 Rangers +153
$50 Rays -1.5 +120

8:10-8:40pm
$50 Whites Sox -1.5 +160
$50 White Sox o4 -105
$50 Royals -1.5 +140
$40 Rockies -125

10:00pm
$100 Padres -1.5 +160
$50 Dodgers -1.5 +150

 

[Hesnotmypres]

7:00pm
$100 Twins +141
$100 Twins o3.5 -110

Twins playing well. Pirates not so much. Twins kill lefty starters (6.3 runs per game on a .290 average). Pirates' Locke has struggled with a 6.23 ERA in his last three starts, Pelfrey not much better with a 4.80 ERA (1.800 WHIP too, ouch!). Good value on an overinflated line in my opinion.

Fondy, I'm on the fence with the Twinkees ..... Good luck on your plays

 

[hugh613]

:cheers3:

 

[The Capping Genius]

GL today. Time to crush 'em

 

[Play2win]

Temp home this evening:

http://cappingthegame.proboards.com