Fondybadger's 2018 CFB - Week 3

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
2018 College Football 84-85-3 +$1106
Week 0 2-5 -$455
Week 1 33-31 +$150
Week 2 49-49-2 +$1411
----------------------
Week 3 18-24-2 -$1372

Pending
$50 UC Davis +31
$150 Vandy +14 -120 (bought half)
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$100 Colorado St 1H +13
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$260 LSU +10.5 & $40 LSU +335
$160 Duke +5.5 & $40 Duke +175
$150 Boise St +3.5
$100 Minnesota -14
$100 Central Michigan +14.5
$50 SMU +36
$50 Illinois +11.5
----
$50 BYU +24 -120 (bought half)
$400 Wisconsin 2H -11.5 +150
$500 Wisconsin 2H -10 +100
$500 Wisconsin 2H -10
$300 Wisconsin 2H -10 -105
$300 Wisconsin 2H -9.5 -115
$200 Wisconsin 2H o18.5
---
$200 Colorado St +19.5 & $50 Colorado St +20.5 & $50 Colorado St +980
$200 UTSA +21.5
$200 UTSA o13
$100 Arkansas -5.5
$50 Wyoming -13.5 -120
$50 Texas Tech ml +100

4:30pm
$50 Virginia -5

6:00pm
$80 Idaho St +37.5
$50 Buffalo -3

7:00pm
$150 Ole Miss +23
$100 Alabama u46.5 +100
$100 Oregon St ml +150

7:30pm
$260 Akron +21 & $40 Akron +950
$100 Akron o12.5
$100 Akron 1H +11.5
$200 Missouri -7 -115
$100 Missouri 1H -3
$100 Northern Iowa +21 -120 (bought half)
$70 Florida International -3 -130 (bought half)
$60 UL Lafayette +34
$50 UL Monroe +27.5

8:00pm
$300 TCU +13
$200 TCU O22.5
$100 TCU 1H +7 -105
$240 USC +155
$150 USC o22
$100 USC 1H ml +140
$50 Eastern Washington +21 -120 (bought half)

10:00pm
$500 Arizona St -4
$150 Arizona St o26.5
$150 Arizona St 1H -3
$100 Arizona St 1H o13.5 -115
$300 Washington -5.5
$100 Washington 1H -2.5
$100 Washington 1H o13 -115
$100 UCLA +120


:angrymob:
 
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12:00pm
$150 Ball St +14.5
$150 Miami -10
$100 Kent St +35.5

3:30pm
$200 West Virginia -3
$150 Boise St +3.5
$100 Minnesota -14
Lean BYU +23

4:00pm
$200 Colorado St +19.5

7:30pm
$200 Missouri -7 -115
Akron +21.5

10:00pm
$300 Washington -5.5
 
How do you think BYU could win this game, assuming that is sliver of a chance remotely possible? Not saying your +23 lean is saying that, I'm just curious if you think there are enough vulnerabilities and variables with what we've seen so far that makes it possible.

Hornibrook was just amazing in that game last year, as was Badger D. 40-6 W. It is weird, a little, that they were -16/17 at BYU, home field flip would imply this year's number should be higher than current I see is at +21. People backing BYU.
 
s--k said:
How do you think BYU could win this game, assuming that is sliver of a chance remotely possible? Not saying your +23 lean is saying that, I'm just curious if you think there are enough vulnerabilities and variables with what we've seen so far that makes it possible.

Hornibrook was just amazing in that game last year, as was Badger D. 40-6 W. It is weird, a little, that they were -16/17 at BYU, home field flip would imply this year's number should be higher than current I see is at +21. People backing BYU.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I'll respond to this message later tonight.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Light week this week? Missed you animals
Click to expand...

What was keeping you away? If I recall you had flooding issues from a storm a few years ago?

These are just my initial plays. I'll have most of my early morning remaining card up late night tonight and rest mid-afternoon tomorrow. Probably have 40-60 wagers this week I'd guess.
 
12:00pm Additions
$250 Hawaii +7 & $50 Hawaii ML +230
$100 Hawaii o27.5
$100 Tenny -31.5 -105
$100 Tenny o39.5
$100 Oklahoma -18 -101
$100 Oklahoma o36 -115
$150 UConn -9 -120
$100 Ball St +15 -102 ($250 total) & $20 Ball St ml +515
$100 Georgia Southern o9
$100 Maryland -14 -120 (bought half point)
$80 Syracuse +3.5 -115
Lean Kentucky -31 -120
Lean Nebraska -9.5
Lean Kansas -2.5
Lean Georgia -33

12:30pm
$100 Pittsburgh +3.5

2:00pm
Lean UC Davis +27

2:30pm
$150 Vandy +14 -120 (bought half)
 
s--k said:
How do you think BYU could win this game, assuming that is sliver of a chance remotely possible? Not saying your +23 lean is saying that, I'm just curious if you think there are enough vulnerabilities and variables with what we've seen so far that makes it possible.

Hornibrook was just amazing in that game last year, as was Badger D. 40-6 W. It is weird, a little, that they were -16/17 at BYU, home field flip would imply this year's number should be higher than current I see is at +21. People backing BYU.
Click to expand...

I don't think BYU has a realistic chance of winning the game (no jinx please), but I think they have above average chance to keep this within three TDs. I still don't fully trust the Badgers defensive backfield. I think BYU, if their receivers hang onto the ball, can have a couple big gains that will get them into position to score. I think this will be another quicker game, (run run run Wisconsin) with a vanilla offense (Iowa next week), and BYU looking to play tough for a bit of redemption from last season. I'm going to stay off the spread (wish I could get BYU 1H +13 and full game +24), and just hit the BYU o12.5 for $150. Two fgs and a TD don't sound like too much to ask for (although BYU kicker does only have one in two games, it was 30+ yards).
 
The more I think about Hawaii wager, the more I'm kicking myself for not looking into their early start time on east coast historical information and travel arrangements for this game. It's a 6am local time kickoff for Hawaii and that's too damn early.

From some more research:
This game starts at 6 a.m. Hawaii Time for local fans back in the islands. The Warriors arrived in New York on Wednesday, more or less. They left early for the East Coast in an attempt to adjust to major time difference and shake off the jet lag.
Click to expand...
 
Fondybadger said:
I don't think BYU has a realistic chance of winning the game (no jinx please), but I think they have above average chance to keep this within three TDs. I still don't fully trust the Badgers defensive backfield. I think BYU, if their receivers hang onto the ball, can have a couple big gains that will get them into position to score. I think this will be another quicker game, (run run run Wisconsin) with a vanilla offense (Iowa next week), and BYU looking to play tough for a bit of redemption from last season. I'm going to stay off the spread (wish I could get BYU 1H +13 and full game +24), and just hit the BYU o12.5 for $150. Two fgs and a TD don't sound like too much to ask for (although BYU kicker does only have one in two games, it was 30+ yards).
Click to expand...

Sometimes when I think a team is susceptible for a loss I see it happening maybe a week from now, like Iowa for instance, but I've seen that when I think a team can get upset vs a week from now, sometimes the team they play the current week further exposes them and ruins the value of the next week matchup. So anyway, if some people, myself included are thinking that Iowa could beat Wisconsin, perhaps it could happen one week sooner. A real long shot though. If BYU had showed better last week a better case could be made. I don't really think a credible case can be made for them to win this week. Anything is possible and unexpected things happen, but in most normal cases Wisconsin wins this game at a very very high rate.

I asked because I figured that you would watch their games closer than anyone and be intimately familiar with any personnel weaknesses that concern you.

BYU has a couple of potential impact receivers who weren't in last year's game so that is something to watch vs the UW secondary. Just thinking back to last year's game though, BYU will need alot more than that to win. I am probably going to take a chance on the +pts and see what happens.

Good luck on everything!
 
Fondybadger said:
The more I think about Hawaii wager, the more I'm kicking myself for not looking into their early start time on east coast historical information and travel arrangements for this game. It's a 6am local time kickoff for Hawaii and that's too damn early.

From some more research:
Click to expand...

For what it's worth, Rolovich did coach Hawaii (OC) at West Point in 2010. And they won that game. So whatever the team did and what worked, he was part of that and hopefully can apply that to this team. But yeah, that is a hell of an adjustment.
 
This game starts at 6 a.m. Hawaii Time for local fans back in the islands. The Warriors arrived in New York on Wednesday, more or less. They left early for the East Coast in an attempt to adjust to major time difference and shake off the jet lag.

For what it's worth, Rolovich did coach Hawaii (OC) at West Point in 2010. And they won that game. So whatever the team did and what worked, he was part of that and hopefully can apply that to this team. But yeah, that is a hell of an adjustment.

when I was an active airline pilot a few year back I can assure you that west to east is th hardest adjustment for "jet lag" BUT hopefully three day in the eastern time zone should be enough to make it NO factor :popcorn:
 
3:30pm Additions
$260 LSU +10.5 & $40 LSU +335
$160 Duke +5.5 & $40 Duke +175
$100 Central Michigan +14.5
$50 SMU +36
$50 Illinois +11.5

4:00pm Additions
$200 UTSA +21.5
$200 UTSA o13
$100 Arkansas -5.5
$50 Colorado St +20.5 ($250 total) & $50 Colorado St +980
$50 Wyoming -13.5 -120
$50 Texas Tech ml +100

4:30pm
$50 Virginia -5
 
12:00pm Additions
$50 Murray St +41.5
$50 Nebraska -9.5
$50 Kansas ml +100
$50 Georgia -33.5

12:00pm 1Hs
$100 Miami 1H -7
$80 Ball St 1H+9
$50 Hawaii 1H o14 +100
$50 Tenny 1H -20
$40 Oklahoma 1H o19.5 -125
 
More 12:00pm 2Hs
$100 Maryland 2H -6.5 -125 & $60 Maryland 2H -6.5 -135
$150 Nebraska 2H -9.5
$100 Tenny 2H -14
$100 Tenny 2H o20 +110
$100 Hawaii 2H o14
$80 Miami 2H -5.5
$50 UConn 2H -2.5
 
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3:30pm Additions
$50 BYU +24 -120 (bought half)

3:30-4:00pm 1Hs
$100 LSU 1H +7 -115
$100 Colorado St 1H +13
$80 UTSA 1H o6.5 -115
$60 Boise St 1H o16.5 -115
$60 BYU 1H +14 -125
$50 BYU 1H o7 +110
 
6:00pm
$80 Idaho St +37.5
$50 Buffalo -3

7:00pm
$150 Ole Miss +23
$100 Alabama u46.5 +100
$100 Oregon St ml +150

7:30pm Additions
$260 Akron +21 & $40 Akron +950
$100 Akron o12.5
$100 Northern Iowa +21 -120 (bought half)
$70 Florida International -3 -130 (bought half)
$60 UL Lafayette +34
$50 UL Monroe +27.5

8:00pm
$300 TCU +13
$200 TCU O22.5
$240 USC +155
$150 USC o22
$50 Eastern Washington +21 -120 (bought half)

10:00pm Additions
$500 Arizona ST -4
$150 Arizona St o26.5
$100 UCLA +120

7:30pm & later 1Hs
$150 Arizona St 1H -3
$100 Arizona St 1H o13.5 -115
$100 Akron 1H +11.5
$100 TCU 1H +7 -105
$100 USC 1H ml +140
$100 Washington 1H -2.5
$100 Washington 1H o13 -115
$100 Missouri 1H -3
 
$500 Wisconsin 2H -10 -110 on this one... would have taken 9.5 -115 @Dimes on my first one if it would have been available.
$300 Wisconsin 2H -9.5 -115
 
I think Wisky puts up 28 points in 2H. So like over 26.5 as well. Probably going to take one more swing on -10 before 2H kick. BYU does get ball to start 2H
 
$400 Wisconsin 2H -11.5 +150
$300 Wisconsin 2H -10 -105

Alright that's enough for me. Haven't started drinking today, but think I'll be drunk by the time this one ends.
 
Fondybadger said:
$400 Wisconsin 2H -11.5 +150
$300 Wisconsin 2H -10 -105

Alright that's enough for me. Haven't started drinking today, but think I'll be drunk by the time this one ends.
Click to expand...

Lol same. First time replying here but I’ve followed many of your plays over the years so thank you!
 
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