Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Preview Article

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Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET (FOX) at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Georgia

Race Info

Lightning surely won't strike twice: Chase Briscoe of all people won last week at Phoenix.

While Phoenix has seen an impressive number of different drivers win at its raceway, this was Briscoe's first career Cup Series victory.

A Briscoe victory this week seems unlikely, therefore, for reasons besides the fact that it's hard for anyone to win consecutive races.

As a result, we'll be sure to discount him from the list of our candidates to win on Sunday.

For this Sunday's race, drivers must complete a total of 325 laps.

As has always been the case this season, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 consists in the first 105 laps. For Stage 2, drivers must complete another 105 laps.

Stage 3 requires the drivers to complete 115 laps.

By now, an entry list has been posted for this race.

37 teams/drivers are listed for this competition.

Therefore, barring any unforeseen events, we already know which drivers will compete at this race.

As for the starting lineup, that gets determined by qualifying.

Practice will take place on Friday at 5:05 p.m. ET.

Qualifying will be single-car, one lap, and two rounds. It will take place on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

The Track

The Atlanta Motor Speedway is nothing new to NASCAR Cup Series drivers. But his year's version of it is new.

Before this most recent repave, the Atlanta Motor Speedway had not been repaved since 1997.

Now, this track has been repaved, modified, reconfigured. It is newer and better.

It is also wider and narrower in different areas.. The track's front stretch has been widened, which will allow drivers to have more room to pass.

Having more room would deemphasize the importance of the starting lineup.

However, the backstretch and turns are significantly narrower than they were before.

This new track is also built to be faster. Besides having a smoother surface, there is more banking.

Previously, the corners were banked at 24 degrees. Now, they are all banked at 28 degrees.

This is a relatively high level of banking, which means that drivers can corral more momentum for their cars as they navigate the turns.

Each lap is still 1.54-miles long. Thus, in completing 325 laps, drivers will have amassed 500.5 miles.

Driver I Dislike

The odds imply that, among an unusually big number of drivers, Joey Logano has a legitimate chance of winning Sunday's race.

However, he has consistently been awful in Atlanta. His last four finishes are, from least to most recent, 23, 10, 15, 19.

The middle two finishes came after starting in third place. So, he dropped back several spots from the leaders.

Match-Up

Kyle Larson may be tempting to fade because of his last attempt at this track. He finished 18thin the race here last July.

But recall that he suffered a penalty late in the race that sent him to the back. This penalty helps explain his poor finishing position as well as the anomalous nature of this poor finishing position.

Before suffering that 18th-placed finish, he had finished second and earned three top-nine finishes and two second-place finishes in his last four tries.

Ryan Blaney, meanwhile, hasn't been quite as consistent as Larson this season.

While one may dismiss it as a consequence of Brad Keselowski's car spinning, Blaney's finish at Las Vegas is disappointing given his reputation for short tracks.

Better than Blaney, Larson this season has two top-two finishes and only one finish outside the top 10.

Larson is also typically excellent about bouncing back with a strong race after an awful one.

Most recently, he won at California after finishing 32nd at Daytona.

For the above reasons, bet on him to finish ahead of Blaney on Sunday.

Best Bet: Larson Ahead of Blaney at -115 with Bovada
 
Kurt Busch, Chastain, and Buescher were the drivers that tested at Atlanta after the repave this winter. So they have an advantage going into this race and the first practice. I don't think anyone else tested.

Kurt Busch won the last race there, but I am weary of the Toyotas. But Kurt and Kyle Busch seem to fair better than the other Toyotas.

Chastain has been knocking on the door and there seems to be a different winner every race this year and he is currently +2500 to win. Looking to see what he does in the first practice.
 
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I see Chastain has dropped to +2000 and +2200 in a couple of places so I am betting him +2500 in the one place I still can. This is just a $20 lottery ticket.
 
I have no idea how to bet this weekends race. The last couple races have been crap for me, so I will tread lightly for a couple weeks.

I'm actually going Saturday for the truck race and Xfinity race. I'll be playing more H2Hs in those races this week than the Cup race.
 
I have no idea how to bet this weekends race. The last couple races have been crap for me, so I will tread lightly for a couple weeks.

I'm actually going Saturday for the truck race and Xfinity race. I'll be playing more H2Hs in those races this week than the Cup race.
I know Allgaier did a lot of testing in Atlanta this winter and he is usually good at Atlanta. I will be looking at him.
 
Rain may washout or delay the Cup practice until tomorrow morning.

I already bet a 1/2 unit on:
Chastain -110 over Keselowski
Kurt Busch -115 over Keselowski

And $20 on Chastain to win at +2500

I will add to those matchups unless Keselowski shows something in practice.
 
Rain may washout or delay the Cup practice until tomorrow morning.

I already bet a 1/2 unit on:
Chastain -110 over Keselowski
Kurt Busch -115 over Keselowski

And $20 on Chastain to win at +2500

I will add to those matchups unless Keselowski shows something in practice.
Yeah it's gnarly here right now. No practice today and I'm guessing qualifying gets shit canned.
 
For the Xfinity race, I took:

Jed Burton -130 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
$10 lottery ticket on Jeb Burton to win at +3300

From practice and listening to Allgaier speak on the Dale Jr podcast, this race will be more like a restrictor-plate race at Daytona or Talladega, than a traditional race at Atlanta. Jeb Burton races very well at restrictor-plate tracks and well at Atlanta, he finished 2nd in the last race.

There will be wrecks, maybe even a "big one".
 
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As I mentioned in the post above on the Dale Jr podcast Allgaier tested in Atlanta. He tested both an Xfinity car and a Cup car. He said that the Xfinity car could run wide open around the bottom of the tract, so it drove like a smaller Daytona or Talladega.

He said the Cup cars were a little different in that they could not stick to the bottom while wide open and would chase up the tract some in the turns. He said the Cup car drove closer to the original Atlanta tract than like Daytona or Talladega.

From practice, the Cup cars looked more like a restrictor-plate race at Daytona or Talladega. The only difference was that it appeared that there was a middle grove that was faster than the top grove. Anyway, it looked more like a superspeedway with a lower and middle grove and a slower upper, third grove. It also looked like they could pass a little easier than a superspeedway.

Also, I thought the Toyota cars looked the best in speed and how they handled.

With all of that being said, I like Bubba and Kurt Busch for the race tomorrow. Both run well on superspeedways. Bubba was so happy with his car that he parked it about 1/2 way through practice.

Also, I am no longer on Chastain. I will let my 1/2 unit bet on him over Keselowski and my $20 to win bet ride, but they do not look to be great bets now.
 
For the Xfinity race, I took:

Jed Burton -130 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
$10 lottery ticket on Jeb Burton to win at +3300

From practice and listening to Allgaier speak on the Dale Jr podcast, this race will be more like a restrictor-plate race at Daytona or Talladega, than a traditional race at Atlanta. Jeb Burton races very well at restrictor-plate tracks and well at Atlanta, he finished 2nd in the last race.

There will be wrecks, maybe even a "big one".
I barely won this bet.

Based on yesterday's race, I have no idea how to bet today's race. Allgaier, who tested both cars, said the Xfinity car would run more like Daytona and the Cup cars a little less like Daytona. Yesterday's race was more like a superspeedway, but it was not Daytona.

I wanted to bet on Bubba based the Daytona comparison and the fact that he is so happy with his car, but if the Cup race will be not as close to Daytona as yesterday's race, I don't know what to do.

Considering:

Bubba matchups
Bubba props (first Toyota, to win group)
Kurt matchups
Chase matchups
Cindric matchups

If I were betting someone to win today, based on their odds, I would choose between Logano, Blaney, Chase, Kurt, Bubba, or Cindric, instead of Chastain who I have already bet.
 
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Think I'll give up Nascar today and tail @captjohn67 on his Indy picks. Been a total kick in the nuts since Daytona.

No clue how this race plays out. Bubba better do something today or he'll be irrelevant until Taladega.

This is one of Elliotts worst tracks but don't know how much the track change helps that.
 
Think I'll give up Nascar today and tail @captjohn67 on his Indy picks. Been a total kick in the nuts since Daytona.

No clue how this race plays out. Bubba better do something today or he'll be irrelevant until Taladega.

This is one of Elliotts worst tracks but don't know how much the track change helps that.
I did not know Atlanta was not a good track for Chase, I was just looking at superspeedway info. I will take him off y list of potential bets.

I may bet some Logano matchups. He and Blaney appear to have the best cars, but Logano's matchups against Hamlin, Larson, etc do not reflect that.
 
I did not know Atlanta was not a good track for Chase, I was just looking at superspeedway info. I will take him off y list of potential bets.

I may bet some Logano matchups. He and Blaney appear to have the best cars, but Logano's matchups against Hamlin, Larson, etc do not reflect that.

Logano was the one I was looking at. He won Bristol Dirt and the Clash at the Colliseuem.

Not saying that has any relevance, but those were the last two were everyone was trying out a new surface/venue.
 
I bet the following:

2 Units:

Cindric -110 over Keselowski
Logano -110 over Hamlin
Bubba -110 over Stenhouse
Blaney -115 over Larson

1 Unit:

Bubba -135 over Bell
Cindric -125 over Almirola
Logano -120 over Chase
Logano -120 over Larson
Blaney -120 over Hamlin

1/2 Unit:
Bubba top Toyota @ +400
Kurt -115 over Keselowski
Chastain -110 over Keselowski (I bet this earlier in the week and would not bet it today)

$20 Chastain to win at +2500 (I would not bet this today either)

No big bets today.
I am pro Bubba, Logano, Blaney, and Cindric and anti Larson, Keselowski, and Hamlin today
 
I went back to look at my posted plays in Nascar this year and they are as follows (I started the season by posting plays as small, medium, large, and 1/2 unit, which are 1 unit, 2 unit, 3 unit, and 1/2 unit bets for me. Bets to win are 0.1, 0.2, or 0.25 units for me):

The Clash:
+2.4 units

Daytona:
+9.7 units (I hit a .2 unit bet at 30:1 to win 6 units which makes this look better than it is)

Auto Club:
Xfinity +1 unit
Cup +9.55 units

Las Vegas:
Xfinity -0.35 units
Cup +1.35 units

Phoenix:
Xfinity +1.75 units
Cup -2.11 units

Atlanta:
Xfinity +1.9 units

Total:
Xfinity +4.3 units
Cup +20.89 units
Both +25.19 units
 
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I bet the following:

2 Units:

Cindric -110 over Keselowski
Logano -110 over Hamlin
Bubba -110 over Stenhouse
Blaney -115 over Larson

1 Unit:

Bubba -135 over Bell
Cindric -125 over Almirola
Logano -120 over Chase
Logano -120 over Larson
Blaney -120 over Hamlin

1/2 Unit:
Bubba top Toyota @ +400
Kurt -115 over Keselowski
Chastain -110 over Keselowski (I bet this earlier in the week and would not bet it today)

$20 Chastain to win at +2500 (I would not bet this today either)

No big bets today.
I am pro Bubba, Logano, Blaney, and Cindric and anti Larson, Keselowski, and Hamlin today
Gl today. Chastain is a good bet. He's been fast all year and at least got pn the track for the truck race yesterday
 
Gl today. Chastain is a good bet. He's been fast all year and at least got pn the track for the truck race yesterday
Yeah, I actually had the truck race on while working yesterday and saw he was in it. For whatever reason, he has been bet down to +1800 to win on BM, but is still +2500 everywhere else I use.
 
Keselowski and Burton to the rear. Burton was starting in 31th anyway and Keselowski was starting 24th so it does not matter too much.

Comp caution on lap 45.
 
I went back to look at my posted plays in Nascar this year and they are as follows (I started the season by posting plays as small, medium, large, and 1/2 unit, which are 1 unit, 2 unit, 3 unit, and 1/2 unit bets for me. Bets to win are 0.1, 0.2, or 0.25 units for me):

The Clash:
+2.4 units

Daytona:
+9.7 units (I hit a .2 unit bet at 30:1 to win 6 units which makes this look better than it is)

Auto Club:
Xfinity +1 unit
Cup +9.55 units

Las Vegas:
Xfinity -0.35 units
Cup +1.35 units

Phoenix:
Xfinity +1.75 units
Cup -2.11 units

Atlanta:
Xfinity +1.9 units

Total:
Xfinity +4.3 units
Cup +20.89 units
Both +25.19 units
+4.65 on the day

Chastain almost won (2nd)

Atlanta:
Xfinity +1.9 units
Cup +4.65

Nascar Total (2022):
Xfinity +4.3 units
Cup +25.54 units
Both +29.84 units
 
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