Florida vs. South Florida Free College Football Week 2 Pick
Florida Gators vs. South Florida Bulls
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET (ABC) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
How Not To Think About This Game
Unfortunately, transitive property is a popular way of thinking about games.
According to transitive property, one should want to bet on Florida this week because NC State beat South Florida by 45 points. If NC State won by 45 minutes and Florida is better than NC State, then, surely, Florida will beat South Florida by more than 45 points.
However, transitive property repeatedly proves to never be a useful logical basis for thinking about a game.
This way of thinking is fundamentally flawed because it ignores the individual match-ups and the specific circumstances that attend each game and that complicate each game, such that guessing scores by comparing rankings of current teams and their previous opponents represents a futile endeavor.
Florida's Situation: Looking Ahead
The specific individual circumstances that attend this game include the following:
South Florida has nothing to lose and expectations and pressure couldn't be lower after the 45-0 blowout loss at NC State.
I dislike the Gators on Saturday because of their specific situation: they find themselves in a classic lookahead spot.
This week, they face a team that they will not be excited to prepare for or play against because of the difference in profile and prestige between the Bull and Gator programs.
Last week's 45-0 NC State victory over South Florida is by no means decisive in this regard. I don't imagine that Gator players even know or care how much they are favored by. The point is that this is Florida vs. South Florida and that Florida has Alabama on deck.
Precedent
This lookahead situation repeatedly proves to be problematic for Gator backers.
Last year, for example, Florida was favored by 23 points at LSU -- that is, by six points fewer than it is favored by against South Florida this weekend.
The Gators lost that game straight-up as they were caught looking ahead to their next opponent, which was Alabama.
But historically, under Dan Mullen, the lookahead situation primarily affects the Gators in the first half. If they play well at all, they tend to regroup at halftime and play stronger in the second half.
Before I get into examples that support my case, I want to address one exception: Missouri vs. Florida, a game which was played a week before the Gators were slated to clash against rival Georgia.
With just over a couple minutes left in the first half, Missouri seemed to have the first half cover in its pocket.
But the Gators covered via some kind of a miracle. They scored two touchdowns, including one off a 30-yard drive, in the final two minutes of the half.
Otherwise, though, we can point to the 10-10 halftime score between South Carolina and Florida in a 2019 game that preceded Florida's clash against Georgia.
In 2018, Mullen's first year as Gators head coach, Florida was losing at halftime to lowly Vanderbilt in a game again preceding its rivalry match-up with the Bulldogs.
Lack of Offense
In order for a heavily favored team to cover the spread, it should possess some offensive firepower with which to easily score many touchdowns.
It is hard to trust Florida to do this given its quarterback situation.
In the season opener against Florida Atlantic, Emory Jones was bad enough to force Dan Mullen into clarifying after the game that there was no quarterback controversy.
Jones was 17-of-27 for 113 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
To be clear, I don't dislike Jones because of one game because one game is just one game.
My problem with him is that he has never looked like or shown on a statistical or other kind of level that he can move the ball downfield, that he is an accurate quarterback.
His difficulty processing schemes and his lack of touch have provided additional concerns.
These concerns are consistent with the ones that Gator writers reported during offseason training.
So Emory's issues are nothing new and they are unsurprising. They make him vastly inferior to last year's Gator quarterback, Kyle Trask, and to the Wolfpack quarterback whom South Florida faced last week.
The Verdict
Last week, Florida mustered 35 points (against Florida Atlantic) by riding a 400-yard rushing attack. But 35 points would require holding South Florida to under six points, which is a tough ask even against an FCS school.
Plus, the lookahead situation will impede the Gator offense (and the team overall) from performing too well especially in the entire first half.
For the above reasons, I recommend fading Florida. Play South Florida for the first-half and full-game.
Best Bet: Bulls First-Half ATS (Odds TBA) & Bulls +29 at -108 with Heritage
Florida Gators vs. South Florida Bulls
Saturday, September 11, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET (ABC) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
How Not To Think About This Game
Unfortunately, transitive property is a popular way of thinking about games.
According to transitive property, one should want to bet on Florida this week because NC State beat South Florida by 45 points. If NC State won by 45 minutes and Florida is better than NC State, then, surely, Florida will beat South Florida by more than 45 points.
However, transitive property repeatedly proves to never be a useful logical basis for thinking about a game.
This way of thinking is fundamentally flawed because it ignores the individual match-ups and the specific circumstances that attend each game and that complicate each game, such that guessing scores by comparing rankings of current teams and their previous opponents represents a futile endeavor.
Florida's Situation: Looking Ahead
The specific individual circumstances that attend this game include the following:
South Florida has nothing to lose and expectations and pressure couldn't be lower after the 45-0 blowout loss at NC State.
I dislike the Gators on Saturday because of their specific situation: they find themselves in a classic lookahead spot.
This week, they face a team that they will not be excited to prepare for or play against because of the difference in profile and prestige between the Bull and Gator programs.
Last week's 45-0 NC State victory over South Florida is by no means decisive in this regard. I don't imagine that Gator players even know or care how much they are favored by. The point is that this is Florida vs. South Florida and that Florida has Alabama on deck.
Precedent
This lookahead situation repeatedly proves to be problematic for Gator backers.
Last year, for example, Florida was favored by 23 points at LSU -- that is, by six points fewer than it is favored by against South Florida this weekend.
The Gators lost that game straight-up as they were caught looking ahead to their next opponent, which was Alabama.
But historically, under Dan Mullen, the lookahead situation primarily affects the Gators in the first half. If they play well at all, they tend to regroup at halftime and play stronger in the second half.
Before I get into examples that support my case, I want to address one exception: Missouri vs. Florida, a game which was played a week before the Gators were slated to clash against rival Georgia.
With just over a couple minutes left in the first half, Missouri seemed to have the first half cover in its pocket.
But the Gators covered via some kind of a miracle. They scored two touchdowns, including one off a 30-yard drive, in the final two minutes of the half.
Otherwise, though, we can point to the 10-10 halftime score between South Carolina and Florida in a 2019 game that preceded Florida's clash against Georgia.
In 2018, Mullen's first year as Gators head coach, Florida was losing at halftime to lowly Vanderbilt in a game again preceding its rivalry match-up with the Bulldogs.
Lack of Offense
In order for a heavily favored team to cover the spread, it should possess some offensive firepower with which to easily score many touchdowns.
It is hard to trust Florida to do this given its quarterback situation.
In the season opener against Florida Atlantic, Emory Jones was bad enough to force Dan Mullen into clarifying after the game that there was no quarterback controversy.
Jones was 17-of-27 for 113 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
To be clear, I don't dislike Jones because of one game because one game is just one game.
My problem with him is that he has never looked like or shown on a statistical or other kind of level that he can move the ball downfield, that he is an accurate quarterback.
His difficulty processing schemes and his lack of touch have provided additional concerns.
These concerns are consistent with the ones that Gator writers reported during offseason training.
So Emory's issues are nothing new and they are unsurprising. They make him vastly inferior to last year's Gator quarterback, Kyle Trask, and to the Wolfpack quarterback whom South Florida faced last week.
The Verdict
Last week, Florida mustered 35 points (against Florida Atlantic) by riding a 400-yard rushing attack. But 35 points would require holding South Florida to under six points, which is a tough ask even against an FCS school.
Plus, the lookahead situation will impede the Gator offense (and the team overall) from performing too well especially in the entire first half.
For the above reasons, I recommend fading Florida. Play South Florida for the first-half and full-game.
Best Bet: Bulls First-Half ATS (Odds TBA) & Bulls +29 at -108 with Heritage
