Florida vs. Kentucky College Football Week 5 Picks
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
The Importance of Kentucky's Run Defense
The most important component of this game will be Kentucky's run defense.
Florida loves to run the ball: one statistic that indicates its dependence on running the ball is that it ranks 28th nationally in run-play percentage.
Kentucky might seem like a strong play because of its run defense statistics. Wildcat backers will certainly point to the fact that Kentucky ranks sixth nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
Because run defense will be so important for Kentucky on Saturday -- given the Gators' proclivity to run the ball -- the Wildcats' run defense statistics warrant closer investigation in order to assess whether they help justify a play on the Wildcats.
Kentucky's Run Defense Stats
Especially at this time of year, statistics can be incredibly misleading.
Obviously, season-long statistics reflect a team or player's season-long performance.
At this stage of the season, however, teams will have played some non-conference games, many of which feature some utterly weak opponents.
In the Wildcats' case, they have played four games so far. Those games include one against UL Monroe, a team bad enough to only beat Jackson State by five points.
Another Wildcat opponent was another small, low-profile program, Chattanooga.
They did play two SEC schools, but neither one is worth being impressed about.
Those two SEC and Power 5 opponents were Missouri and South Carolina.
Missouri ranks 77th in rush yards per game despite getting to beat up Southeastern Missouri State. South Carolina, meanwhile, ranks 113th in the same category.
So, Kentucky's run defense stats are meaningless because they form a product of an extremely generous schedule so far.
A Closer Look
Because the Wildcat rush defense stats are not something we should attach value to, we should shift our attention to last year and this offseason. In other words, because Florida is a newly strong opponent for Kentucky, we should assess the Wildcat run defense somewhat as if it were a season opener.
Last year, Kentucky ranked sixth in the SEC in opposing rushing yardage despite having well-respected future NFL prospects like DeAndre Square and Josh Paschal in the front seven.
Kentucky's big loss this offseason was linebacker Jamin Davis, who played a significant role in any success that the Wildcat run defense had, for which reason he was selected 19th in the first round of this most recent NFL Daft.
Without Davis, the Wildcats pinned a lot of hopes on the transfer portal because they needed bodies, especially in their linebacking group where the depth has looked very bleak.
They've also tried to rely on significant levels of youth. For example, they had hope in guys like Jared Casey, a linebacker who they snagged from the Oregon Ducks.
But these young players simply aren't making an instant impact for UK and this lack of instant impact or instant growth will continue as they progress through the SEC gauntlet.
The lack of depth especially at linebacker has created awkward conundrums, planning-wise, for the defense.
One solution was going to be to start Vito Tisdale, a natural safety, at strongside linebacker. Tisdale, however, hasn't played a snap this year because he is having legal issues related to a burglary.
To account for these personnel issues in the linebacking unit, the Wildcats are employing packages that respect their relative strength in the secondary.
A smaller Wildcat group lacking substantial meat in the front seven will try to navigate some of the toughest rush attacks in the SEC and in the nation.
Florida Rush Offense
The toughness of Florida's rush attack is difficult to understate. Currently, the Gators rank third nationally in amassing 323 rushing yards per game.
Unlike Kentucky's, Florida's stats haven't just been inflated by playing weak opponents.
Two weeks ago, the Gators shredded top-ranked Alabama's run defense. In that game, they ran for 245 yards on 5.7 YPC in a two-point defeat.
They nearly beat the top team in the nation despite having an inept passer at quarterback in Emory Jones, who instead contributed to his team's success by participating in the option attack and otherwise using his legs to, often methodically, move the ball downfield.
Can Kentucky Keep Pace?
Defensively, the Gator weakness is easily against the pass. Its secondary is its weakest unit.
Whereas the Gators rank 31st nationally in limiting opposing rush yards, they rank 77th nationally in limiting opposing pass yards.
I dislike the Wildcats because they lack a reliable pass attack, despite the easy schedule that they've had so far.
They start a grad transfer in Will Levis who would have more interceptions than touchdowns if not for his "great" effort against UL Monroe.
Best Bet: Gators -7.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 2, 2021 at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
The Importance of Kentucky's Run Defense
The most important component of this game will be Kentucky's run defense.
Florida loves to run the ball: one statistic that indicates its dependence on running the ball is that it ranks 28th nationally in run-play percentage.
Kentucky might seem like a strong play because of its run defense statistics. Wildcat backers will certainly point to the fact that Kentucky ranks sixth nationally in limiting opposing rush yards per game.
Because run defense will be so important for Kentucky on Saturday -- given the Gators' proclivity to run the ball -- the Wildcats' run defense statistics warrant closer investigation in order to assess whether they help justify a play on the Wildcats.
Kentucky's Run Defense Stats
Especially at this time of year, statistics can be incredibly misleading.
Obviously, season-long statistics reflect a team or player's season-long performance.
At this stage of the season, however, teams will have played some non-conference games, many of which feature some utterly weak opponents.
In the Wildcats' case, they have played four games so far. Those games include one against UL Monroe, a team bad enough to only beat Jackson State by five points.
Another Wildcat opponent was another small, low-profile program, Chattanooga.
They did play two SEC schools, but neither one is worth being impressed about.
Those two SEC and Power 5 opponents were Missouri and South Carolina.
Missouri ranks 77th in rush yards per game despite getting to beat up Southeastern Missouri State. South Carolina, meanwhile, ranks 113th in the same category.
So, Kentucky's run defense stats are meaningless because they form a product of an extremely generous schedule so far.
A Closer Look
Because the Wildcat rush defense stats are not something we should attach value to, we should shift our attention to last year and this offseason. In other words, because Florida is a newly strong opponent for Kentucky, we should assess the Wildcat run defense somewhat as if it were a season opener.
Last year, Kentucky ranked sixth in the SEC in opposing rushing yardage despite having well-respected future NFL prospects like DeAndre Square and Josh Paschal in the front seven.
Kentucky's big loss this offseason was linebacker Jamin Davis, who played a significant role in any success that the Wildcat run defense had, for which reason he was selected 19th in the first round of this most recent NFL Daft.
Without Davis, the Wildcats pinned a lot of hopes on the transfer portal because they needed bodies, especially in their linebacking group where the depth has looked very bleak.
They've also tried to rely on significant levels of youth. For example, they had hope in guys like Jared Casey, a linebacker who they snagged from the Oregon Ducks.
But these young players simply aren't making an instant impact for UK and this lack of instant impact or instant growth will continue as they progress through the SEC gauntlet.
The lack of depth especially at linebacker has created awkward conundrums, planning-wise, for the defense.
One solution was going to be to start Vito Tisdale, a natural safety, at strongside linebacker. Tisdale, however, hasn't played a snap this year because he is having legal issues related to a burglary.
To account for these personnel issues in the linebacking unit, the Wildcats are employing packages that respect their relative strength in the secondary.
A smaller Wildcat group lacking substantial meat in the front seven will try to navigate some of the toughest rush attacks in the SEC and in the nation.
Florida Rush Offense
The toughness of Florida's rush attack is difficult to understate. Currently, the Gators rank third nationally in amassing 323 rushing yards per game.
Unlike Kentucky's, Florida's stats haven't just been inflated by playing weak opponents.
Two weeks ago, the Gators shredded top-ranked Alabama's run defense. In that game, they ran for 245 yards on 5.7 YPC in a two-point defeat.
They nearly beat the top team in the nation despite having an inept passer at quarterback in Emory Jones, who instead contributed to his team's success by participating in the option attack and otherwise using his legs to, often methodically, move the ball downfield.
Can Kentucky Keep Pace?
Defensively, the Gator weakness is easily against the pass. Its secondary is its weakest unit.
Whereas the Gators rank 31st nationally in limiting opposing rush yards, they rank 77th nationally in limiting opposing pass yards.
I dislike the Wildcats because they lack a reliable pass attack, despite the easy schedule that they've had so far.
They start a grad transfer in Will Levis who would have more interceptions than touchdowns if not for his "great" effort against UL Monroe.
Best Bet: Gators -7.5 at -105 with BetOnline
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