Florida vs. Georgia: NCAAF Week 10 Game Picks and Betting Predictions
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Life Makes Sense Again
Coming into this season, I was very high on Florida partly because I was sold on its defensive quality.
Last year, the Gators ranked 12th in overall defense — as measured by average yards allowed per game — and returned or introduced significant personnel that, to me, justified hope of continuity or even improvement.
Now, things did not initially go as planned. The start of the season was odd for many defenses around the country probably as a result of the restrictions that COVID-19 imposed on practice opportunities. Florida’s defense was one of those odd cases.
But COVID-19 also, I think, saved the day. The postponement of Florida’s game against LSU effectively granted the Gators a bye week. Players and coaches regathered themselves and re-prepared themselves.
To be specific, coaches simplified things. Todd Grantham, the defensive coordinator, took away the exotic blitz packages and other creative but complicated components that he is famed for. When players do less complicated things, they spend less time thinking and more time simply playing and trusting their abilities.
New personnel helped. In Florida’s last game against Missouri, the Gators introduced Kyree Campbell, who had missed the team’s prior games.
Campbell was supposed to be the team’s starting nose tackle. At 6-4 and 295 pounds, he carries nice physicality that helps make Florida a reliably run-stuffing squad because of the space and attention from the offense that he occupies and because his effort gives his teammates less to do.
Stopping the run is critical. The Gators limited Missouri to 40 rushing yards on 23 rush attempts. Missouri scored three points behind its offense, not relying on turnovers and excluding a garbage-time touchdown where Florida fielded several backups and freshmen.
Georgia Run Offense vs. Florida Run Defense
Florida’s renewed — not newfound — ability against the run is crucial against a Georgia squad that owns the nation’s 31st-highest run play percentage.
While Florida’s run defense is trending upward, Georgia’s ground game is regressed. In terms of YPC and YPC ranking, the Bulldogs find themselves far behind what they produced last year.
This regression should not come as a surprise after the offensive line lost two first-rounders plus a superb playmaker in running back D’Andre Swift, who just missed a first-round selection.
Georgia Pass Attack vs. Florida Secondary
Other changes that the Gators made include finding a stronger role for cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Jaydon Hill. Senior Brad Stewart also took over at the STAR position. He’s a reliable, veteran nickel corner.
This depth and ability in the secondary, which Florida is now fully making use of, will be effective against a Georgia pass attack that poses an easier test.
Bulldog quarterback Stetson Bennett is inefficient, as his sub-60 percent completion percentage shows, and prone to throwing interceptions.
In general, he and his team’s regressed run game explain why the Bulldogs rank towards the bottom in terms of explosive plays.
This lack of big-play ability gives Florida’s already strong defense a significant margin of error as Georgia tries to grind out scoring drives.
Florida Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Georgia already had one test against an elite pass attack. It allowed over 400 yards and four touchdowns to Alabama’s Mac Jones, who helped the Tide score 41 points.
Now, Florida isn’t Alabama. But before I lay chalk with Georgia, I need to see evidence of its ability against a top-level pass attack. Yet i’ve only see the opposite. Like Bama, Florida’s pass attack ranks top-10 as measured by passing yards per game.
In turn, the Gators did thrive against a Missouri pass defense that was, statistically speaking, one of the nation’s best last year. Quarterback Kyle Trask regularly amasses well over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.
He enjoys the benefit of multiple returning pass-catchers that he already developed chemistry with. Missouri generated no exception to his comfort under shotgun, locating those different targets downfield.
The Verdict
But Florida’s renewed defense will limit a boring Georgia offense that will struggle to keep its defense on the sideline.
Kyle Trask and his bevy of weapons will ensure a victory against an already very vulnerable Bulldog secondary.
I think the Gators will win. But, purely regardless of which game i’m betting on, when I like the underdog I always like to concentrate my betting units on taking the points for an added dose of comfort.
Best Bet: Gators +3.5 at -115 odds with Bookmaker
Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Life Makes Sense Again
Coming into this season, I was very high on Florida partly because I was sold on its defensive quality.
Last year, the Gators ranked 12th in overall defense — as measured by average yards allowed per game — and returned or introduced significant personnel that, to me, justified hope of continuity or even improvement.
Now, things did not initially go as planned. The start of the season was odd for many defenses around the country probably as a result of the restrictions that COVID-19 imposed on practice opportunities. Florida’s defense was one of those odd cases.
But COVID-19 also, I think, saved the day. The postponement of Florida’s game against LSU effectively granted the Gators a bye week. Players and coaches regathered themselves and re-prepared themselves.
To be specific, coaches simplified things. Todd Grantham, the defensive coordinator, took away the exotic blitz packages and other creative but complicated components that he is famed for. When players do less complicated things, they spend less time thinking and more time simply playing and trusting their abilities.
New personnel helped. In Florida’s last game against Missouri, the Gators introduced Kyree Campbell, who had missed the team’s prior games.
Campbell was supposed to be the team’s starting nose tackle. At 6-4 and 295 pounds, he carries nice physicality that helps make Florida a reliably run-stuffing squad because of the space and attention from the offense that he occupies and because his effort gives his teammates less to do.
Stopping the run is critical. The Gators limited Missouri to 40 rushing yards on 23 rush attempts. Missouri scored three points behind its offense, not relying on turnovers and excluding a garbage-time touchdown where Florida fielded several backups and freshmen.
Georgia Run Offense vs. Florida Run Defense
Florida’s renewed — not newfound — ability against the run is crucial against a Georgia squad that owns the nation’s 31st-highest run play percentage.
While Florida’s run defense is trending upward, Georgia’s ground game is regressed. In terms of YPC and YPC ranking, the Bulldogs find themselves far behind what they produced last year.
This regression should not come as a surprise after the offensive line lost two first-rounders plus a superb playmaker in running back D’Andre Swift, who just missed a first-round selection.
Georgia Pass Attack vs. Florida Secondary
Other changes that the Gators made include finding a stronger role for cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Jaydon Hill. Senior Brad Stewart also took over at the STAR position. He’s a reliable, veteran nickel corner.
This depth and ability in the secondary, which Florida is now fully making use of, will be effective against a Georgia pass attack that poses an easier test.
Bulldog quarterback Stetson Bennett is inefficient, as his sub-60 percent completion percentage shows, and prone to throwing interceptions.
In general, he and his team’s regressed run game explain why the Bulldogs rank towards the bottom in terms of explosive plays.
This lack of big-play ability gives Florida’s already strong defense a significant margin of error as Georgia tries to grind out scoring drives.
Florida Offense vs. Georgia Defense
Georgia already had one test against an elite pass attack. It allowed over 400 yards and four touchdowns to Alabama’s Mac Jones, who helped the Tide score 41 points.
Now, Florida isn’t Alabama. But before I lay chalk with Georgia, I need to see evidence of its ability against a top-level pass attack. Yet i’ve only see the opposite. Like Bama, Florida’s pass attack ranks top-10 as measured by passing yards per game.
In turn, the Gators did thrive against a Missouri pass defense that was, statistically speaking, one of the nation’s best last year. Quarterback Kyle Trask regularly amasses well over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.
He enjoys the benefit of multiple returning pass-catchers that he already developed chemistry with. Missouri generated no exception to his comfort under shotgun, locating those different targets downfield.
The Verdict
But Florida’s renewed defense will limit a boring Georgia offense that will struggle to keep its defense on the sideline.
Kyle Trask and his bevy of weapons will ensure a victory against an already very vulnerable Bulldog secondary.
I think the Gators will win. But, purely regardless of which game i’m betting on, when I like the underdog I always like to concentrate my betting units on taking the points for an added dose of comfort.
Best Bet: Gators +3.5 at -115 odds with Bookmaker
