NCAA Basketball Parlay Picks of the Day
Florida Gators vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Looking At Florida’s Game Vs. Alabama
In order to explain why I like Arkansas, I want to talk about a game that Florida played against Alabama.
In that game, Alabama scored 86 points with 62 of them coming inside the arc or at the free throw line.
Look at 1:05 in the following video to see how Bama was finding success at the basket:
Almost every Bama player is hanging out behind the arc.
By spreading everybody out, Bama takes away Florida’s help defense, thus leaving Gator defenders in isolation against Alabama’s attacking athletes.
All it takes, for the Bama player to score, is a move to the left and then a quick shift of momentum to the right. Then he has a fairly easy shot attempt at the rim.
Alabama had not been doing this the whole game. The Gators were able to achieve early success because Alabama was not spreading out its defense.
See 30 seconds in the following video to see what I mean:
Here, the paint is more clogged. So the Bama player is driving into more traffic, meaning more bodies. Plus, another Gator defender is able to disturb the driving Bama player by digging from the perimeter.
So the lesson here is that an offense finds more success against Florida’s defense by spreading it out with positive spacing behind the arc to create one-on-one match-ups.
Arkansas’ Offensive Style
Arkansas has achieved one of the SEC’s more efficient offenses by spreading out defenses.
Look at the beginning of the following video:
Arkansas keeps the ball moving in order to keep the defense on its feet.
Notice how the ball continually moves from side to side in an attempt to shift the defense out of position.
With the help of a ball-screen and then the screen-setting center’s movement away from the basket, the driving Razorback is able to penetrate inside for an open look at the basket.
Because of its proclivity for isolation plays, Arkansas ranks 11th in the SEC in ratio of assists per field goals made. Given the above information, this statistic is actually a good thing for Arkansas tonight.
Key Player: Jalen Tate
One guy who can take this game over for the Razorbacks is point guard Jalen Tate.
At 6-6, he can use his length to get over a defender. His length helps him be a strong driver to the basket, although he is also efficient when he pulls up for a mid-range shot.
Given his well-rounded skill set — he also demands the defense’s attention behind the arc -- he is one of the most efficient in the conference in two-point percentage.
With his “dual-threat” as a shooter and a driver, he represents the kind of player — like Vanderbilt’s point guard Scotty Pippen, who scored 32 against Florida — who gives the Gator defense great trouble.
This last piece of information is important because in just about all of Arkansas’ losses Tate produced an usually low offensive rating. Tate’s success is important to his team’s success.
Total
Unless Arkansas is playing one of the SEC’s offensive bottom-feeders like either of the Mississippi schools, it will win games and cover the spread by outscoring the opponent.
I like the Razorbacks and the ‘over’ because they can get out in transition against this Gator team that is ridden with turnover-prone ball-handlers like Tyree Appleby, who has a very high turnover rate.
When the Gators last missed over 10 days — as they will have done before tonight’s game — their shooting was not rusty.
But they did allow too many turnovers. Arkansas, which ranks top-five in the SEC in both turnover and steal rate, will take advantage.
Also note a trend: the “over” is 6-0 in Gator road games. They tend to give up over 80 points away from home.
The Verdict
With its spread and motion principles and its ability to get out in transition, Arkansas will establish its preferred fast tempo and outscore a Gator team whose defense is vulnerable to one-on-one match-ups and to offenses who enjoy creating isolation match-ups.
Best Bet: Parlay Razorbacks -4.5 at -108 & Over 150 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Florida Gators vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Looking At Florida’s Game Vs. Alabama
In order to explain why I like Arkansas, I want to talk about a game that Florida played against Alabama.
In that game, Alabama scored 86 points with 62 of them coming inside the arc or at the free throw line.
Look at 1:05 in the following video to see how Bama was finding success at the basket:
Almost every Bama player is hanging out behind the arc.
By spreading everybody out, Bama takes away Florida’s help defense, thus leaving Gator defenders in isolation against Alabama’s attacking athletes.
All it takes, for the Bama player to score, is a move to the left and then a quick shift of momentum to the right. Then he has a fairly easy shot attempt at the rim.
Alabama had not been doing this the whole game. The Gators were able to achieve early success because Alabama was not spreading out its defense.
See 30 seconds in the following video to see what I mean:
Here, the paint is more clogged. So the Bama player is driving into more traffic, meaning more bodies. Plus, another Gator defender is able to disturb the driving Bama player by digging from the perimeter.
So the lesson here is that an offense finds more success against Florida’s defense by spreading it out with positive spacing behind the arc to create one-on-one match-ups.
Arkansas’ Offensive Style
Arkansas has achieved one of the SEC’s more efficient offenses by spreading out defenses.
Look at the beginning of the following video:
Arkansas keeps the ball moving in order to keep the defense on its feet.
Notice how the ball continually moves from side to side in an attempt to shift the defense out of position.
With the help of a ball-screen and then the screen-setting center’s movement away from the basket, the driving Razorback is able to penetrate inside for an open look at the basket.
Because of its proclivity for isolation plays, Arkansas ranks 11th in the SEC in ratio of assists per field goals made. Given the above information, this statistic is actually a good thing for Arkansas tonight.
Key Player: Jalen Tate
One guy who can take this game over for the Razorbacks is point guard Jalen Tate.
At 6-6, he can use his length to get over a defender. His length helps him be a strong driver to the basket, although he is also efficient when he pulls up for a mid-range shot.
Given his well-rounded skill set — he also demands the defense’s attention behind the arc -- he is one of the most efficient in the conference in two-point percentage.
With his “dual-threat” as a shooter and a driver, he represents the kind of player — like Vanderbilt’s point guard Scotty Pippen, who scored 32 against Florida — who gives the Gator defense great trouble.
This last piece of information is important because in just about all of Arkansas’ losses Tate produced an usually low offensive rating. Tate’s success is important to his team’s success.
Total
Unless Arkansas is playing one of the SEC’s offensive bottom-feeders like either of the Mississippi schools, it will win games and cover the spread by outscoring the opponent.
I like the Razorbacks and the ‘over’ because they can get out in transition against this Gator team that is ridden with turnover-prone ball-handlers like Tyree Appleby, who has a very high turnover rate.
When the Gators last missed over 10 days — as they will have done before tonight’s game — their shooting was not rusty.
But they did allow too many turnovers. Arkansas, which ranks top-five in the SEC in both turnover and steal rate, will take advantage.
Also note a trend: the “over” is 6-0 in Gator road games. They tend to give up over 80 points away from home.
The Verdict
With its spread and motion principles and its ability to get out in transition, Arkansas will establish its preferred fast tempo and outscore a Gator team whose defense is vulnerable to one-on-one match-ups and to offenses who enjoy creating isolation match-ups.
Best Bet: Parlay Razorbacks -4.5 at -108 & Over 150 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
