NCAA Football Parlay Plays For Saturday
Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, noon ET (ESPN) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Gator Defense vs. Dual-Threat Quarterbacks
In Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond, we have a dual-threat quarterback.
So it’s important to observe how Todd Grantham and his Florida defense typically performs against such quarterbacks.
Last year, Auburn’s Bo Nix had one of his worst games both as a rusher and as a passer when he played Florida.
Missouri’s Kelly Bryant, too, suffered his second-lowest quarterback rating when he played Florida. Likewise, he ran for only 1.3 YPC, although he ran for more against five other teams.
LSU’s Joe Burrow put up great numbers both in the air and on the ground against the Gators. But the Heisman winner did that to every other defense as well. His offense was in another qualitative stratosphere than Texas A&M’s.
Virginia’s usually very dangerous Bryce Perkins only accrued 1.7 YPC on 14 carries against Grantham’s defense.
This season, Matt Corral did produce 395 passing yards and 50 rushing yards when playing Florida.
Although, he was part of a new-look offense in a season opener where many defenses underperformed. Florida’s, certainly, succumbed to the conference-wide tendency to miss a ton of tackles and make other kinds of mistakes.
Like Bryant, especially, Mond is pass-first. But he can run and he can put up big numbers on the ground.
But there’s nothing to suggest that he provides some kind of dangerous match-up threat to the Gator defense.
Todd Grantham is sophisticated and well-prepared in dealing with opposing quarterbacks who can run.
Some very basic things that he does include disguising blitzes, stunting, and maximizing the positional versatility of his defenders in order to set the edge or otherwise disturb and contain scrambling threats.
Mond vs. Gator Pass Defense
Mond is going to have to rely on his arm against Grantham’s defense.
The thing is: he’s not going to be able to rely on his wide receivers.
This year, the Aggies are extremely thin at the position. In terms of receiving yards, they are actually led by a running back and a tight end.
I’ve been really disappointed with the Gators’ pass defense in terms of limiting opposing top wide receivers.
Elijah Moore of Ole Miss and South Carolina’s Shi Smith both had great games against them, thus providing the crux of Florida’s issues with pass defense.
With Jhamon Ausbon having opted out, however, the Aggies don’t have that number one wide receiver with which to hurt the Gators.
Mond likes to attack the middle of the field through the air particularly in order to target his tight end.
Part of Florida’s win last Saturday involved the pass defense showing significant improvement particularly in the middle of the field.
Florida Pass Attack vs. Texas A&M Secondary
Texas A&M’s pass defense seemed great last season in terms of opposing passer rating.
But the passing threats that it faced were limited in number. Alabama’s obviously posed an exception, a very productive exception.
It wasn’t just Tua, though. Mac Jones threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns on 20 of 27 passing last week against these Aggies.
The Aggies do miss senior starting cornerback Elijah Blades who opted out.
For Florida, Kyle Trask has looked like the SEC’s leading returning passer and much more.
Through two games, he’s reached almost 700 passing yards and has thrown 10 touchdowns to one interception.
Among others, Kyle Pitts has been a large beneficiary of Trask’s distribution.
Pitts is an athletic freak because he can line up just about anywhere and will often be matched up with a corner.
The Verdict
This game stood out as one in which oddsmakers aren’t favoring the favorite by nearly enough points.
With its superior pass attack and top-level cornerbacks like Kaiir Elam, Florida will win by over a touchdown.
As part of your parlay, it’s up to your sense of risk whether you’d rather include the Gators ATS or ML.
Best Bet: Gators -6.5 (-105) with Heritage
Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina
Miami’s Run Defense
Miami lost the heart and soul of its defense — times two — with the departures of Shaq Quarterman and Michael Pinckney.
Especially Quarterman was known and touted as a run-stopper. He was physical and he had radar vision as he navigated his way towards opposing ball-carriers. Pinckney was strong against the run, too.
Those guys are irreplaceable and Miami’s run defense is feeling to which degree they are.
This season, Florida State produced two different running backs who averaged over seven YPC on at least six carries.
When Miami faced Louisville, it allowed 209 rushing yards, 164 of which came from starting running back Javian Hawkins.
These performances lead the Hurricanes to rank 95th, currently, in run defense.
Clemson Rush Attack
In its offensive line, Clemson is anchored by All-ACC third-teamer Jackson Carman at left tackle.
It is misleading, though, to call him the only returning starter and it’s naively disrespectful to show skepticism towards Clemson offensive linemen who switch positions.
Granted, it’s fair to wonder about the Tigers’ depth on the offensive line after losing four starters.
But it’s a higher-ranked rush attack by any measure partly because depth is not a concern yet in this early part of the season.
Also, Travis Etienne is still one of the nation’s best running backs, if not the best. He misses so many tackles — 91 last year -- but also excels at accruing a high YPC total after contact and at catching passes out of the backfield.
Right now, the All-American is averaging 6.2 YPC.
Clemson Pass Attack vs. Miami Pass Defense
In addition to accounting for Clemson’s elite ground game, Miami’s 81st-ranked pass defense will have to deal with Heisman hopeful Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is by no account suffering the slow start that he did at the beginning of last season. Right now, he’s thrown for over 300 yards against both ACC opponents with a combined total of four touchdowns to zero interceptions against them.
Amari Rodgers and Frank Ladson Jr. lead the Tigers’ receiving corps. Both average over 17 yards per catch.
D’Eriq King
For Miami, D’Eriq King has created very positive numbers in a new-look offense that has earned him hype. I think he’s overrated because he’s only shown that he can succeed against defenses that rank in the ACC’s bottom half.
One weakness of King is in his attempt to stretch the field. He’s attempted 17 deep passes and connected on just four of them.
This weakness is critical for King because deep balls are crucial for Tiger opponents. The only ones who played Clemson close last year hit on some deep balls.
Virginia scored 23 points last week partly because it connected on multiple deep balls. King lacks this same ability.
In general, he’ll have trouble finding open receivers against former five-star corner Andrew Booth and All-ACC corner Derion Kendrick, who didn’t allow a catch last week.
I like that Clemson played Virginia last week because it gives top-level defensive coordinator Brent Venables the chance to refine his strategy against mobile quarterbacks.
Former nationally fourth-ranked recruit Bryan Bresee, at defensive tackle, benefits from the experience.
King is more of an athlete than Virginia’s quarterback. But I trust Venables and his largely veteran group of former four-star recruits in the front seven to contain a guy who can’t beat them deep.
The Verdict
I’m fairly tired of the Miami hype. But it just creates more value for Clemson bettors.
Clemson’s two-dimensionality creates too much for the Hurricane defense to account for. Defensively, the Tigers have one of the best defensive minds to improve against a mobile quarterback.
Given his lack of a deep ball, King lacks a necessary ingredient to keep his team competitive. He will be less dangerous and feasible to contain by a defense that can afford to take more risks by inviting King to beat it deep.
Best Bet: Tigers -14 (-105) with Heritage
Parlay: Gators -6.5 (-105) & Tigers -14 (-105) at +281 Odds With Heritage
Florida Gators vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, noon ET (ESPN) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Gator Defense vs. Dual-Threat Quarterbacks
In Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond, we have a dual-threat quarterback.
So it’s important to observe how Todd Grantham and his Florida defense typically performs against such quarterbacks.
Last year, Auburn’s Bo Nix had one of his worst games both as a rusher and as a passer when he played Florida.
Missouri’s Kelly Bryant, too, suffered his second-lowest quarterback rating when he played Florida. Likewise, he ran for only 1.3 YPC, although he ran for more against five other teams.
LSU’s Joe Burrow put up great numbers both in the air and on the ground against the Gators. But the Heisman winner did that to every other defense as well. His offense was in another qualitative stratosphere than Texas A&M’s.
Virginia’s usually very dangerous Bryce Perkins only accrued 1.7 YPC on 14 carries against Grantham’s defense.
This season, Matt Corral did produce 395 passing yards and 50 rushing yards when playing Florida.
Although, he was part of a new-look offense in a season opener where many defenses underperformed. Florida’s, certainly, succumbed to the conference-wide tendency to miss a ton of tackles and make other kinds of mistakes.
Like Bryant, especially, Mond is pass-first. But he can run and he can put up big numbers on the ground.
But there’s nothing to suggest that he provides some kind of dangerous match-up threat to the Gator defense.
Todd Grantham is sophisticated and well-prepared in dealing with opposing quarterbacks who can run.
Some very basic things that he does include disguising blitzes, stunting, and maximizing the positional versatility of his defenders in order to set the edge or otherwise disturb and contain scrambling threats.
Mond vs. Gator Pass Defense
Mond is going to have to rely on his arm against Grantham’s defense.
The thing is: he’s not going to be able to rely on his wide receivers.
This year, the Aggies are extremely thin at the position. In terms of receiving yards, they are actually led by a running back and a tight end.
I’ve been really disappointed with the Gators’ pass defense in terms of limiting opposing top wide receivers.
Elijah Moore of Ole Miss and South Carolina’s Shi Smith both had great games against them, thus providing the crux of Florida’s issues with pass defense.
With Jhamon Ausbon having opted out, however, the Aggies don’t have that number one wide receiver with which to hurt the Gators.
Mond likes to attack the middle of the field through the air particularly in order to target his tight end.
Part of Florida’s win last Saturday involved the pass defense showing significant improvement particularly in the middle of the field.
Florida Pass Attack vs. Texas A&M Secondary
Texas A&M’s pass defense seemed great last season in terms of opposing passer rating.
But the passing threats that it faced were limited in number. Alabama’s obviously posed an exception, a very productive exception.
It wasn’t just Tua, though. Mac Jones threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns on 20 of 27 passing last week against these Aggies.
The Aggies do miss senior starting cornerback Elijah Blades who opted out.
For Florida, Kyle Trask has looked like the SEC’s leading returning passer and much more.
Through two games, he’s reached almost 700 passing yards and has thrown 10 touchdowns to one interception.
Among others, Kyle Pitts has been a large beneficiary of Trask’s distribution.
Pitts is an athletic freak because he can line up just about anywhere and will often be matched up with a corner.
The Verdict
This game stood out as one in which oddsmakers aren’t favoring the favorite by nearly enough points.
With its superior pass attack and top-level cornerbacks like Kaiir Elam, Florida will win by over a touchdown.
As part of your parlay, it’s up to your sense of risk whether you’d rather include the Gators ATS or ML.
Best Bet: Gators -6.5 (-105) with Heritage
Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina
Miami’s Run Defense
Miami lost the heart and soul of its defense — times two — with the departures of Shaq Quarterman and Michael Pinckney.
Especially Quarterman was known and touted as a run-stopper. He was physical and he had radar vision as he navigated his way towards opposing ball-carriers. Pinckney was strong against the run, too.
Those guys are irreplaceable and Miami’s run defense is feeling to which degree they are.
This season, Florida State produced two different running backs who averaged over seven YPC on at least six carries.
When Miami faced Louisville, it allowed 209 rushing yards, 164 of which came from starting running back Javian Hawkins.
These performances lead the Hurricanes to rank 95th, currently, in run defense.
Clemson Rush Attack
In its offensive line, Clemson is anchored by All-ACC third-teamer Jackson Carman at left tackle.
It is misleading, though, to call him the only returning starter and it’s naively disrespectful to show skepticism towards Clemson offensive linemen who switch positions.
Granted, it’s fair to wonder about the Tigers’ depth on the offensive line after losing four starters.
But it’s a higher-ranked rush attack by any measure partly because depth is not a concern yet in this early part of the season.
Also, Travis Etienne is still one of the nation’s best running backs, if not the best. He misses so many tackles — 91 last year -- but also excels at accruing a high YPC total after contact and at catching passes out of the backfield.
Right now, the All-American is averaging 6.2 YPC.
Clemson Pass Attack vs. Miami Pass Defense
In addition to accounting for Clemson’s elite ground game, Miami’s 81st-ranked pass defense will have to deal with Heisman hopeful Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence is by no account suffering the slow start that he did at the beginning of last season. Right now, he’s thrown for over 300 yards against both ACC opponents with a combined total of four touchdowns to zero interceptions against them.
Amari Rodgers and Frank Ladson Jr. lead the Tigers’ receiving corps. Both average over 17 yards per catch.
D’Eriq King
For Miami, D’Eriq King has created very positive numbers in a new-look offense that has earned him hype. I think he’s overrated because he’s only shown that he can succeed against defenses that rank in the ACC’s bottom half.
One weakness of King is in his attempt to stretch the field. He’s attempted 17 deep passes and connected on just four of them.
This weakness is critical for King because deep balls are crucial for Tiger opponents. The only ones who played Clemson close last year hit on some deep balls.
Virginia scored 23 points last week partly because it connected on multiple deep balls. King lacks this same ability.
In general, he’ll have trouble finding open receivers against former five-star corner Andrew Booth and All-ACC corner Derion Kendrick, who didn’t allow a catch last week.
I like that Clemson played Virginia last week because it gives top-level defensive coordinator Brent Venables the chance to refine his strategy against mobile quarterbacks.
Former nationally fourth-ranked recruit Bryan Bresee, at defensive tackle, benefits from the experience.
King is more of an athlete than Virginia’s quarterback. But I trust Venables and his largely veteran group of former four-star recruits in the front seven to contain a guy who can’t beat them deep.
The Verdict
I’m fairly tired of the Miami hype. But it just creates more value for Clemson bettors.
Clemson’s two-dimensionality creates too much for the Hurricane defense to account for. Defensively, the Tigers have one of the best defensive minds to improve against a mobile quarterback.
Given his lack of a deep ball, King lacks a necessary ingredient to keep his team competitive. He will be less dangerous and feasible to contain by a defense that can afford to take more risks by inviting King to beat it deep.
Best Bet: Tigers -14 (-105) with Heritage
Parlay: Gators -6.5 (-105) & Tigers -14 (-105) at +281 Odds With Heritage
