Florida State vs. Notre Dame: Week 6 NCAAF Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Indiana
Intro
Dating to last season, Florida State has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive tries.
This season, the Seminoles were favored twice and failed to come within 10 points of covering the spread.
They were also a 12-point underdog in one game (against Miami), which they lost by 42 points.
It suffices to say: oddsmakers are struggling to account just for how bad Florida State is.
Part of the struggle is that the Seminoles have some talent. They have some recognizable names and they have some guys who have an NFL future.
But as a team, Florida State repeatedly proves to be so much worse than whatever its brightest individual talents may inspire hope to achieve.
Importance Of Running For Notre Dame
Under head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is notorious for wanting to pound the rock.
Recruiting overly-sized, uniquely physical and strong offensive linemen is a persistent recruiting priority.
So it’s unsurprising to see that the Fighting Irish own the 13th-highest run play percentage in the nation.
Dating to last season, the Irish have covered four games in a row when they run for at least 190 yards.
Concerning the Seminoles’ run defense, it has hardly been tested at all. Georgia Tech and Jacksonville State should have posed negligible danger on the ground.
While the still rebuilding Yellow Jackets still managed to run for 161 yards, Miami ran for 200 in its 42-point blowout win.
Notre Dame Rush Attack vs. Florida State Run Defense
The Irish, arguably, have at least one of the nation’s top protection units.
Continuity is crucial here and the Irish returned a total of 114 starts on the offensive line.
So Kyren Williams has this advantage in terms of run-blocking that he knows how to exploit. After two games, he’s averaging six YPC as Notre Dame’s leading rusher.
He’ll also benefit from facing a Seminole run defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both run defense — as measured by opposing rush yards per game — and in opposing average YPC.
Ian Book vs. Seminole Pass Defense
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has gotten his fair share of flack. To be fair, he was perforce a rather conservative quarterback as he was limited by a bad deep ball. He also struggled against stronger pass defenses.
But Book fixed his problem with the deep ball. Last year, he was just one of four quarterbacks who completed at least half of their 20+-yard pass attempts while also completing at least 25 of them.
As for his struggles against stronger pass defense, he won’t have a chance to end those on Saturday because he faces a Seminole pass defense that ranks 116th.
He also benefits from the statistical unlikelihood of getting sacked as the Irish feature, most notably, a pair of NFL-caliber tackles. Liam Eichenberg, for example, did not allow even one sack in 2019.
Jordan Travis
Florida State’s anemic offense — the Seminoles have scored a combined total of 23 points in two ACC games (against Georgia Tech and Miami) — is desperate
So Jordan Travis will start. While his numbers look good, 17 of his 19 pass attempts in 2020 came against Jacksonville State. Before that game, he never exceeded a 55 percent completion rate in a season.
Overall, he is a familiar enough commodity given his game action. But he’s quite unproven against breathing competition.
His mobility is needed because the Seminoles rank 120th in sack percentage.
Notre Dame Pass Rush + Secondary
Still, Travis will be running for his life.
Notre Dame’s pass rush benefits from featuring well-coached position groups who remain productive even while injuries afflict their depth.
Right now, the Irish rank 29th in sack rate. Isaiah Foskey leads the team with two sacks in Notre Dame’s two games. He brings a nice mixture of strength -- with his uptick in weight and muscle — and speed off the edge.
At cornerback TaRiq Bracy is off to strong start. He’s already come up big for Notre Dame by filling in for starting corners before this season.
After allowing zero yards against Duke, he’s getting more recognition from PFF.
Nick McCloud, graduate transfer from NC State, adds more to the position.
They won’t be threatened by an inefficient Travis.
The Verdict
Notre Dame will keep scoring with its balanced attack against Florida State’s hapless defense.
Pressure to perform will continue to weigh on the inefficient Jordan Travis who will be running for his life while trying and failing to navigate Notre Dame’s quality and experience in pass coverage.
Best Bet: Fighting Irish -20.5 (-105) with BetOnline
Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Indiana
Intro
Dating to last season, Florida State has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive tries.
This season, the Seminoles were favored twice and failed to come within 10 points of covering the spread.
They were also a 12-point underdog in one game (against Miami), which they lost by 42 points.
It suffices to say: oddsmakers are struggling to account just for how bad Florida State is.
Part of the struggle is that the Seminoles have some talent. They have some recognizable names and they have some guys who have an NFL future.
But as a team, Florida State repeatedly proves to be so much worse than whatever its brightest individual talents may inspire hope to achieve.
Importance Of Running For Notre Dame
Under head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is notorious for wanting to pound the rock.
Recruiting overly-sized, uniquely physical and strong offensive linemen is a persistent recruiting priority.
So it’s unsurprising to see that the Fighting Irish own the 13th-highest run play percentage in the nation.
Dating to last season, the Irish have covered four games in a row when they run for at least 190 yards.
Concerning the Seminoles’ run defense, it has hardly been tested at all. Georgia Tech and Jacksonville State should have posed negligible danger on the ground.
While the still rebuilding Yellow Jackets still managed to run for 161 yards, Miami ran for 200 in its 42-point blowout win.
Notre Dame Rush Attack vs. Florida State Run Defense
The Irish, arguably, have at least one of the nation’s top protection units.
Continuity is crucial here and the Irish returned a total of 114 starts on the offensive line.
So Kyren Williams has this advantage in terms of run-blocking that he knows how to exploit. After two games, he’s averaging six YPC as Notre Dame’s leading rusher.
He’ll also benefit from facing a Seminole run defense that ranks outside the top 100 in both run defense — as measured by opposing rush yards per game — and in opposing average YPC.
Ian Book vs. Seminole Pass Defense
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has gotten his fair share of flack. To be fair, he was perforce a rather conservative quarterback as he was limited by a bad deep ball. He also struggled against stronger pass defenses.
But Book fixed his problem with the deep ball. Last year, he was just one of four quarterbacks who completed at least half of their 20+-yard pass attempts while also completing at least 25 of them.
As for his struggles against stronger pass defense, he won’t have a chance to end those on Saturday because he faces a Seminole pass defense that ranks 116th.
He also benefits from the statistical unlikelihood of getting sacked as the Irish feature, most notably, a pair of NFL-caliber tackles. Liam Eichenberg, for example, did not allow even one sack in 2019.
Jordan Travis
Florida State’s anemic offense — the Seminoles have scored a combined total of 23 points in two ACC games (against Georgia Tech and Miami) — is desperate
So Jordan Travis will start. While his numbers look good, 17 of his 19 pass attempts in 2020 came against Jacksonville State. Before that game, he never exceeded a 55 percent completion rate in a season.
Overall, he is a familiar enough commodity given his game action. But he’s quite unproven against breathing competition.
His mobility is needed because the Seminoles rank 120th in sack percentage.
Notre Dame Pass Rush + Secondary
Still, Travis will be running for his life.
Notre Dame’s pass rush benefits from featuring well-coached position groups who remain productive even while injuries afflict their depth.
Right now, the Irish rank 29th in sack rate. Isaiah Foskey leads the team with two sacks in Notre Dame’s two games. He brings a nice mixture of strength -- with his uptick in weight and muscle — and speed off the edge.
At cornerback TaRiq Bracy is off to strong start. He’s already come up big for Notre Dame by filling in for starting corners before this season.
After allowing zero yards against Duke, he’s getting more recognition from PFF.
Nick McCloud, graduate transfer from NC State, adds more to the position.
They won’t be threatened by an inefficient Travis.
The Verdict
Notre Dame will keep scoring with its balanced attack against Florida State’s hapless defense.
Pressure to perform will continue to weigh on the inefficient Jordan Travis who will be running for his life while trying and failing to navigate Notre Dame’s quality and experience in pass coverage.
Best Bet: Fighting Irish -20.5 (-105) with BetOnline
