Florida State vs. Miami: NCAAF Week 4 Betting Picks and Game Predictions.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
The Spot
After opening as 9.5-point favorites, Miami is now favored by as many as 11.5 points. Bettors are probably influenced by the way both teams have looked so far this season.
What oddsmakers and these bettors do not account for is the unique situation.
Miami is coming off of a big, emotional win, a 47-34 upset win on the road. Now the Hurricanes go to face an 0-1 Seminole squad which they beat by 17 points last year and which was upset by Georgia Tech this year.
This game represents a sandwich spot for them because they get to play top-ranked Clemson the following week. So in addition to being in a classic let-down situation, they also find themselves in a lookahead spot.
We have some recent history which shows the Hurricanes to be vulnerable in this kind of scenario.
Broadly speaking, one might conclude that they had trouble taking big underdogs seriously last year.
They lost three games in 2019 where they were favored by more than 18 points.
One of those losses came against Georgia Tech after they achieved an upset win the week before against Virginia.
Also, two times they followed a win where they produced a rare 40+-point total with a let-down effort.
After beating Bethune-Cookman 63-0, they lost to Central Michigan 17-12. After blowing out Louisville while scoring 52 points, they lost to Florida International.
Moreover, Florida State has had an extra week to prepare. It is true that FSU’s head coach tested positive COVID and remains unable to physically be with his team.
But Mike Norvell can help prepare his squad remotely. Also, with a new primary play-caller on Saturday, the Seminoles will bring an element of surprise, something that Miami hasn’t seen on film and can’t prepare for.
Also, this is a rivalry game. Florida State is going to come out with a big chip on its shoulder and, most importantly, with motivating hatred in their hearts.
Despite the fact that the Hurricanes pulled away in the fourth quarter of last year’s game, this series has a significant history of being very close no matter what the spread is.
Before last year’s game, the previous five contests in this series had been decided by 14 points or fewer.
These close contests include the one in 2018 where, in a flip of script, Florida State was the heavily favored squad (by 14) and won by one point at home.
There have been plenty of other times, too, in the recent history between both schools, where the heavily underdogged squad made this game close.
One-score games have been the rule to expect in this rivalry’s recent history.
Match-Up Advantage #1: In The Passing Game
I want to look at a couple of match-ups that favor the Seminoles in their upset bid.
One, the Hurricanes are notably thin at wide receiver. Hence, only one of their top three pass-catchers in terms of yardage is a wide receiver.
On the other hand, the Seminoles’ top cornerback is formidable.
Asante Samuel Jr. has been a bright spot for the 'Noles. In his team’s season opener, he achieved the fairly rare feat of picking off two passes.
Last year was his first year starting. He led the ACC and ranked eighth nationally in breaking up 14 passes. His numbers helped him earn third-team All-ACC honors.
He uses his fluid and efficient movement, his eye discipline, quickness, and instincts to exhibit ball-hawking skills that result in incomplete passes or even interceptions.
With him on the field, Miami will have even greater trouble relying on any wide receiver, which will hurt its ability to move downfield and to score enough to cover the big spread.
Match-Up Advantage #2: Linebackers
Miami had to replace the pure heart and soul of its defense in the form of three linebackers: Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman.
They were responsible for a huge number of the team’s game-changing defensive plays, of the havoc created and turnovers that Miami prides itself on.
Both were top-10 linebackers in the nation according to Lindy's, for example. Their absence creates regression in Miami’s pass and run defense.
In addition to offering a threat alongside both linebackers near the line of scrimmage, Romeo Finley’s departure is also meaningful given his ability to blanket opposing tight ends.
For FSU, Camren McDonald will take advantage. The former four-star has great size, body control, and ball skills that he also flashes in contested-catch situations.
His feet and agility facilitate strong route-running skills. The way that he can line-up to create different match-up opportunities yields diversely positive opportunities.
In his team’s season opener, he caught four passes for 41 yards.
The Verdict
In a uniquely strong situation, the Seminoles will come out and limit Miami’s passing game with the likes of Samuel and attack Miami’s regressed, thus far shaky-looking defense with playmakers like McDonald.
I find that spot plays benefit the team in the more positive spot primarily in the first half. Then, the other team regroups in the locker room and comes out differently for the second half.
So I prefer a first-half play.
Best Bet: Seminoles First-Half +6.5 (-105) at Heritage
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, September 26, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
The Spot
After opening as 9.5-point favorites, Miami is now favored by as many as 11.5 points. Bettors are probably influenced by the way both teams have looked so far this season.
What oddsmakers and these bettors do not account for is the unique situation.
Miami is coming off of a big, emotional win, a 47-34 upset win on the road. Now the Hurricanes go to face an 0-1 Seminole squad which they beat by 17 points last year and which was upset by Georgia Tech this year.
This game represents a sandwich spot for them because they get to play top-ranked Clemson the following week. So in addition to being in a classic let-down situation, they also find themselves in a lookahead spot.
We have some recent history which shows the Hurricanes to be vulnerable in this kind of scenario.
Broadly speaking, one might conclude that they had trouble taking big underdogs seriously last year.
They lost three games in 2019 where they were favored by more than 18 points.
One of those losses came against Georgia Tech after they achieved an upset win the week before against Virginia.
Also, two times they followed a win where they produced a rare 40+-point total with a let-down effort.
After beating Bethune-Cookman 63-0, they lost to Central Michigan 17-12. After blowing out Louisville while scoring 52 points, they lost to Florida International.
Moreover, Florida State has had an extra week to prepare. It is true that FSU’s head coach tested positive COVID and remains unable to physically be with his team.
But Mike Norvell can help prepare his squad remotely. Also, with a new primary play-caller on Saturday, the Seminoles will bring an element of surprise, something that Miami hasn’t seen on film and can’t prepare for.
Also, this is a rivalry game. Florida State is going to come out with a big chip on its shoulder and, most importantly, with motivating hatred in their hearts.
Despite the fact that the Hurricanes pulled away in the fourth quarter of last year’s game, this series has a significant history of being very close no matter what the spread is.
Before last year’s game, the previous five contests in this series had been decided by 14 points or fewer.
These close contests include the one in 2018 where, in a flip of script, Florida State was the heavily favored squad (by 14) and won by one point at home.
There have been plenty of other times, too, in the recent history between both schools, where the heavily underdogged squad made this game close.
One-score games have been the rule to expect in this rivalry’s recent history.
Match-Up Advantage #1: In The Passing Game
I want to look at a couple of match-ups that favor the Seminoles in their upset bid.
One, the Hurricanes are notably thin at wide receiver. Hence, only one of their top three pass-catchers in terms of yardage is a wide receiver.
On the other hand, the Seminoles’ top cornerback is formidable.
Asante Samuel Jr. has been a bright spot for the 'Noles. In his team’s season opener, he achieved the fairly rare feat of picking off two passes.
Last year was his first year starting. He led the ACC and ranked eighth nationally in breaking up 14 passes. His numbers helped him earn third-team All-ACC honors.
He uses his fluid and efficient movement, his eye discipline, quickness, and instincts to exhibit ball-hawking skills that result in incomplete passes or even interceptions.
With him on the field, Miami will have even greater trouble relying on any wide receiver, which will hurt its ability to move downfield and to score enough to cover the big spread.
Match-Up Advantage #2: Linebackers
Miami had to replace the pure heart and soul of its defense in the form of three linebackers: Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman.
They were responsible for a huge number of the team’s game-changing defensive plays, of the havoc created and turnovers that Miami prides itself on.
Both were top-10 linebackers in the nation according to Lindy's, for example. Their absence creates regression in Miami’s pass and run defense.
In addition to offering a threat alongside both linebackers near the line of scrimmage, Romeo Finley’s departure is also meaningful given his ability to blanket opposing tight ends.
For FSU, Camren McDonald will take advantage. The former four-star has great size, body control, and ball skills that he also flashes in contested-catch situations.
His feet and agility facilitate strong route-running skills. The way that he can line-up to create different match-up opportunities yields diversely positive opportunities.
In his team’s season opener, he caught four passes for 41 yards.
The Verdict
In a uniquely strong situation, the Seminoles will come out and limit Miami’s passing game with the likes of Samuel and attack Miami’s regressed, thus far shaky-looking defense with playmakers like McDonald.
I find that spot plays benefit the team in the more positive spot primarily in the first half. Then, the other team regroups in the locker room and comes out differently for the second half.
So I prefer a first-half play.
Best Bet: Seminoles First-Half +6.5 (-105) at Heritage
