Saturday's Best Bets: Add This College Football Week 13 Parlay
Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at noon ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Defensive Improvement?
Florida State seems to have improved in stopping the run. This improvement would be a big deal given Florida's well-known reliance on its ground game.
But let's look at the Seminoles' recent opponents. Most recently, they inched past a Boston College squad that ranks 77th nationally in YPC.
Before that game, they dealt with a Miami team that ranks 113th nationally in YPC.
Florida State did not face a rushing attack that ranks in the upper half in the ACC since it faced North Carolina on October 9. In that game, the Tar Heels amassed 229 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC.
It might be said that UNC's offense should be more dangerous than Florida's because Tar Heel quarterback Sam Howell has proven himself to be a dangerous passer.
But the Seminole run defense struggled all the same against Syracuse's necessarily run-heavy offense which accomplished 239 rushing yards on six YPC.
Florida's Run Game
As part of the entire team's drop in performance under Dan Mullen, the Gator rush offense dropped statistically.
But Mullen has been fired, creating a classic situation for a team to rejuvenate itself. Metaphorically speaking, the poison is gone so that the body can be healthy again.
Even despite this slump under Mullen, Florida ranks 20th nationally in rushing yards per game, averaging over 200.
At quarterback, Emory Jones is always a threat to run the ball. He is an elusive playmaker with his legs, for which reason he is averaging 5.3 YPC.
It is hard to know whether Jones will hand off or run it himself. Florida leans on tricky play-calling to delay the reactions of and otherwise confuse the opposing front seven.
With this sort of deception, the Gators maximize the rushing potential of their quarterback along with their committee of running backs, which is spearheaded by Dameon Pierce's 6.1 YPC.
This prolific attack will thrive against a Seminole run defense that is hapless against higher-level ground games.
Pass Rush
One common element in Florida State's losses this year has been an inability to protect the quarterback, which is evident in the fact that it ranks 122nd in limiting opposing sack rate.
Teams -- and not just Clemson -- easily exploit Florida State's weakness in pass protection.
The Gators have a lot of players who can exploit this same weakness. Zachary Carter, for all of his positional switching, is always a threat. He and fellow former Georgia Bulldog Brenton Cox both have eight sacks this season.
They help the Gators rank 19th nationally in sack rate.
Thus, a key difference between both offenses in this game is that Florida's quarterback will be comfortable operating since he will enjoy stronger protection.
Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.
Bad Spot
Situationally, this is a terrible spot for the Ducks.
Previously ranked in the top 4, they no longer seem to have a chance of making the playoffs after being decimated by Utah.
Emotionally, the loss to Utah must be devastating and their morale is surely low.
Beaver Run Defense
Oregon State has consistently done a strong job stopping opposing running backs.
The Beavers kept USC star Keaontay Ingram from being prolific or making a difference in the game.
Fellow Pac-12 top-six leading rushers Tavion Thomas of Utah and Rachaad White of Arizona State were also ineffective against the Beaver defense. Thomas mustered 75 yards on 3.4 YPC and White 39 yards on 2.6 YPC.
White's extraordinarily inefficient performance must also be considered a product of the Beavers' improved run defense, which is now also stronger against mobile quarterbacks, as evident in Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels' comparatively weak running performance.
Before the Beavers faced Stanford, they fired their defensive coordinator. Since that firing, the Beavers gave up 14 points to Stanford and 10 to Arizona State.
They have thus enjoyed two blowout wins and easy covers -- including once as an underdog -- since that firing.
Oregon State's successful run defense is a decisive factor because Duck quarterback Anthony Brown has always been known to be a stronger runner than a passer.
Like any quarterback, Brown will come up with the occasional big play. But then he'll also throw bad passes, make bad decisions, get intercepted, and so on.
Overall, he has failed to complete over 53 percent of his passes this season in five different games.
Per PFF quarterback grades, Brown has been a unique hindrance on a highly-ranked team.
Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Early in the season, Oregon's run defense looked promising.
But then it suffered key injuries, with one crucial absent player being linebacker Dru Mathis.
As the season has progressed, the Ducks have weakened in their run defense.
Besides recent struggles, an ability to limit big plays creates a misleading picture of Oregon's run defense.
As teams like Utah show, strong rushing attacks ably move the ball on the Duck defense. The drives may be long, but they are successful.
Explosive plays are still also available to sufficiently creative pass attacks -- like Utah's, which used the threat of their ground game to perplex Duck linebackers.
Beaver offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren has cultivated a reputation for creativity, which has helped earn him a nomination as the nation's top assistant coach.
He has plenty of tools with which to be creative, including Pac-12 leading rusher B.J. Baylor. Baylor has amassed 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns on 6.1 YPC.
The Verdict
A rejuvenated Gator team will use its superior pass protection and prolific ground game to race past rival Florida State.
Meanwhile, Oregon State will pull off another upset against Oregon with its creativity, elite rush attack, stout run defense, and vastly improved overall defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Gators ML at -140 & Beavers +7.5 at -113 at +218 odds with Heritage
Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at noon ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Defensive Improvement?
Florida State seems to have improved in stopping the run. This improvement would be a big deal given Florida's well-known reliance on its ground game.
But let's look at the Seminoles' recent opponents. Most recently, they inched past a Boston College squad that ranks 77th nationally in YPC.
Before that game, they dealt with a Miami team that ranks 113th nationally in YPC.
Florida State did not face a rushing attack that ranks in the upper half in the ACC since it faced North Carolina on October 9. In that game, the Tar Heels amassed 229 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC.
It might be said that UNC's offense should be more dangerous than Florida's because Tar Heel quarterback Sam Howell has proven himself to be a dangerous passer.
But the Seminole run defense struggled all the same against Syracuse's necessarily run-heavy offense which accomplished 239 rushing yards on six YPC.
Florida's Run Game
As part of the entire team's drop in performance under Dan Mullen, the Gator rush offense dropped statistically.
But Mullen has been fired, creating a classic situation for a team to rejuvenate itself. Metaphorically speaking, the poison is gone so that the body can be healthy again.
Even despite this slump under Mullen, Florida ranks 20th nationally in rushing yards per game, averaging over 200.
At quarterback, Emory Jones is always a threat to run the ball. He is an elusive playmaker with his legs, for which reason he is averaging 5.3 YPC.
It is hard to know whether Jones will hand off or run it himself. Florida leans on tricky play-calling to delay the reactions of and otherwise confuse the opposing front seven.
With this sort of deception, the Gators maximize the rushing potential of their quarterback along with their committee of running backs, which is spearheaded by Dameon Pierce's 6.1 YPC.
This prolific attack will thrive against a Seminole run defense that is hapless against higher-level ground games.
Pass Rush
One common element in Florida State's losses this year has been an inability to protect the quarterback, which is evident in the fact that it ranks 122nd in limiting opposing sack rate.
Teams -- and not just Clemson -- easily exploit Florida State's weakness in pass protection.
The Gators have a lot of players who can exploit this same weakness. Zachary Carter, for all of his positional switching, is always a threat. He and fellow former Georgia Bulldog Brenton Cox both have eight sacks this season.
They help the Gators rank 19th nationally in sack rate.
Thus, a key difference between both offenses in this game is that Florida's quarterback will be comfortable operating since he will enjoy stronger protection.
Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, November 27, 2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.
Bad Spot
Situationally, this is a terrible spot for the Ducks.
Previously ranked in the top 4, they no longer seem to have a chance of making the playoffs after being decimated by Utah.
Emotionally, the loss to Utah must be devastating and their morale is surely low.
Beaver Run Defense
Oregon State has consistently done a strong job stopping opposing running backs.
The Beavers kept USC star Keaontay Ingram from being prolific or making a difference in the game.
Fellow Pac-12 top-six leading rushers Tavion Thomas of Utah and Rachaad White of Arizona State were also ineffective against the Beaver defense. Thomas mustered 75 yards on 3.4 YPC and White 39 yards on 2.6 YPC.
White's extraordinarily inefficient performance must also be considered a product of the Beavers' improved run defense, which is now also stronger against mobile quarterbacks, as evident in Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels' comparatively weak running performance.
Before the Beavers faced Stanford, they fired their defensive coordinator. Since that firing, the Beavers gave up 14 points to Stanford and 10 to Arizona State.
They have thus enjoyed two blowout wins and easy covers -- including once as an underdog -- since that firing.
Oregon State's successful run defense is a decisive factor because Duck quarterback Anthony Brown has always been known to be a stronger runner than a passer.
Like any quarterback, Brown will come up with the occasional big play. But then he'll also throw bad passes, make bad decisions, get intercepted, and so on.
Overall, he has failed to complete over 53 percent of his passes this season in five different games.
Per PFF quarterback grades, Brown has been a unique hindrance on a highly-ranked team.
Oregon State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Early in the season, Oregon's run defense looked promising.
But then it suffered key injuries, with one crucial absent player being linebacker Dru Mathis.
As the season has progressed, the Ducks have weakened in their run defense.
Besides recent struggles, an ability to limit big plays creates a misleading picture of Oregon's run defense.
As teams like Utah show, strong rushing attacks ably move the ball on the Duck defense. The drives may be long, but they are successful.
Explosive plays are still also available to sufficiently creative pass attacks -- like Utah's, which used the threat of their ground game to perplex Duck linebackers.
Beaver offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren has cultivated a reputation for creativity, which has helped earn him a nomination as the nation's top assistant coach.
He has plenty of tools with which to be creative, including Pac-12 leading rusher B.J. Baylor. Baylor has amassed 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns on 6.1 YPC.
The Verdict
A rejuvenated Gator team will use its superior pass protection and prolific ground game to race past rival Florida State.
Meanwhile, Oregon State will pull off another upset against Oregon with its creativity, elite rush attack, stout run defense, and vastly improved overall defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Gators ML at -140 & Beavers +7.5 at -113 at +218 odds with Heritage
