Florida State is on a mini roll. After the first half meltdown at Clemson, which ultimately cost them the game, the 'Noles have won four straight. That's the longest winning streak since early in the 2005 season.
Making it five in a row will be a difficult task.
Florida State travels to Winston-Salem, North Carolina tonight for a showdown against Wake Forest (3-2, 2-1 ACC), a team that embarrassed the 'Noles last year winning 30-0 in Doak Campbell Stadium. Even though that game took place over a year ago, it is still fresh in the minds of the Seminole coaches and players.
"I hope kickers, defense and offense, all of them, it stuck in their minds," Bowden said of last year's loss. "They (won by) 30 points. That was the worst part about the season right there. Every other game you could have won."
On the bright side for the Garnet and Gold, this is a much different team with a totally revamped coaching staff. With the return of
Budd Thacker, who missed the past two games with a dislocated toe, a very stout defense should be even tougher on the interior. Offensively, Jimbo Fisher's squad is starting to show progress with
Xavier Lee now the man under center. And Florida State's special teams have been arguably the best in the conference.
On the other side of the ball will be a very underrated Wake Forest team. After a Cinderella season that saw them claim an unlikely conference championship and a BCS bowl berth, the Deacons return the bulk of their offense from 2006 with two key exceptions - all-ACC offensive lineman Steve Vallos and top receiver Nate Morton. Even with that many players back in the fold, Wake Forest has underachieved a bit on offense due in part to the injury to quarterback
Riley Skinner and an over abundance of turnovers (14 in five games). Skinner is now back to 100 percent health and has lead his team to two straight victories with the offense scoring 31 and 41 points, respectively, in those two games.
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[SIZE=+1]FSU at Wake Forest[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f9eeb5>
Kickoff: 7:46 pm EST
TV: ESPN & ESPN HD
Replay: Sun Sports (Sun 7pm)
Radio: ISP Sports Network
Line: FSU by 5.5 points
Series record: 21-3-1 FSU
FSU-Wake Gameday Page
Stats Inc. preview </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Defense is another story. In addition to losing three of their starting four in the secondary, Wake had to replace team captain and All-ACC linebacker Jon Abbate. Making matters worse, junior linebacker Eric Berry, who was supposed to replace Abbate, was ruled academically ineligible before the start of the season. As a result, Wake's defense is not the juggernaut it was in 2006. That's especially true against the pass where opposing offenses are averaging about 250 yards game through the air and have racked up 10 touchdowns through five games.
While teams have posted some big numbers on the scoreboard against the Deacons, on paper their defensive statistics are above average (27th against the run and 31st against the pass). In addition Jim Grobe's club has has created 14 turnovers. If not for the offense and special teams turning it over so often, they might have a better record.
Both FSU and Wake Forest have one loss in the conference which means the loser will have a very hard time getting back in the race for the ACC Championship game. While Wake would still need Boston College, who they lost to in the season opener, to lose a couple times to have a shot, Florida State controls its own destiny with Clemson losing two conference games.
In order for the Seminoles to move to 5-1 and put themselves in prime position to make a run at the conference crown, they must do the following:
[SIZE=+1]5. Defense must play smart, not emotional[/SIZE]
The Florida State players haven't been shy expressing their desire for payback against Wake Forest, and for good reason. The Deacons took the 'Noles to the woodshed in their own backyard last year to the tune of 30-0. The humiliating setback was the worst home loss in the Bobby Bowden era. So you can bet every Seminole in Winston-Salem will be hyped up with the desire to exact revenge.
While being emotionally keyed up can sometimes give a team an advantage, especially on defense, it can be an disadvantage against Wake Forest. With misdirection on just about every play, the Deacon's offense is designed to take advantage of overzealous defenders. As a result, a seek and destroy mentality is not the best mindset when going up against Jim Grobe's club. Using emotion to give a player an extra burst to go where he "thinks" the ball is going, isn't going to work and is only going to get that player out of position. The key is playing disciplined and smart football where defenders stay in their lanes.
Will it happen? Probably not early. As much as Mickey Andrews will preach the importance of staying home and not biting on plays, you have to believe the defense will be a little hyped up early and will over-run some plays.
[SIZE=+1]4. Take advantage of Wake's weakness[/SIZE]
Wake Forest's pass defense numbers are somewhat respectable but that's mostly because they played a couple teams that don't have much of a passing game - Army and Maryland. It's somewhat forgivable that Boston College and Matt Ryan threw for over 400 yards against their defense, but Duke was able to throw for nearly 300 yards last week and had four passing touchdowns.
With Xavier Lee now at the helm, the passing game has begun to click for Florida State. Jim Grobe will have to think twice about having his defense crowd the line of scrimmage. If they leave
Greg Carr one-on-one with a smaller cornerback he will get eaten alive. If Wake decides to roll a safety to Carr's side of the field, that should open things up for the running game and mid-range passes to
Preston Parker and
De'Cody I love sex. One of Wake's starting cornerbacks goes 5-foot-9, which should create a huge mismatch for either Carr (6-6) or I love sex (6-3).
Will it happen? Yes. With Jimbo Fisher calling the shots, you have to believe he will take full advantage of any defensive weaknesses. If Wake brings everybody up at the line of scrimmage, look for Xavier Lee and Greg Carr to have a big game.
[SIZE=+1]3. Win the turnover battle[/SIZE]
Florida State is coming off of its best game of the season in terms of turnover margin. The 'Noles forced three interceptions and one fumble against NC State but didn't commit a single turnover. If the margin is that large against Wake Forest, FSU will leave Winston-Salem with a 5-1 record.
The good news is that while FSU has been solid in this department (16th nationally in turnover margin), Wake Forest has had a hard time protecting the football. Where that is very evident is in the passing game where the Deacon quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions in five games. On the other hand, Wake Forest has been pretty good forcing turnovers picking up 14 this season.
Will it happen? It should. The Seminoles have committed just one turnover over the last two games and the secondary has really improved it's ability to pick off pass attempts.
[SIZE=+1]2. Cut down on penalties![/SIZE]
In case you missed it, Florida State is tied for last with Texas Tech for being the most penalized team in major college football. That's a dubious distinction that has really hurt the 'Noles on both sides of the football, and especially on offense. Against Colorado, Alabama and NC State, the offense probably would have posted another 7 to 10 points in each of those games had penalties been down to a reasonable level. FSU was good enough in those games to overcome the onslaught of penalties, but eventually it will cost them a game or two.
If this game is as close as everybody thinks, a key personal foul or holding call could easily make the difference. Florida State has worked hard this week with the goal of cutting down on penalties but the short week couldn't have helped.
Will it happen? FSU will probably do a little better job this week but look for Wake to be penalized less. With ACC officials working this game it's hard to imagine Wake not having a decided advantage in penalties.
[SIZE=+1]1. Keep the game close in the first half[/SIZE]
Over the past six meetings, Wake Forest's offensive production has taken a dramatic downturn in the second half when taking on Mickey Andrews' defense. The Deacons have averaged twice as many points in first half (15.0) than in the second half (7.8) and a lot of those second half points came late on the tail end of FSU blowouts. This disparity is a result of it taking a while for FSU to adjust to Wake's unique misdirection offense. There is every reason to expect that trend to continue.
As a result, if the game is close at halftime, Florida State should hold the advantage in the second half. After making the necessary adjustments in the locker room, you have to think the Seminole defense will more or less have Wake's offense figured out which should allow the offense to pull ahead.
In order for FSU keep the game close early, one or more of three things must occur - (1) The Seminole defense must make earlier adjustments, (2) the defense and special teams must force turnovers, or (3) the Seminole offense must be more productive to keep pace with Wake Forest on the scoreboard.
Will it happen? History says no. Outside of the opening drive against NC State, the Seminole offense has been notoriously slow this season. In fact, FSU is averaging just 6.6 points in the first half, compared to 16.6. in the second half. Meanwhile, Wake Forest's offense has always given FSU fits early. This season, they are averaging 13.2 points in the first half compared to just 8.7 over the final two quarters.
[SIZE=+1]Score prediction[/SIZE]
This is a tough one to call because there are a lot of variables that could go either way. What's hard to ignore is that Wake Forest is a team that usually get off to a quick start, both against FSU and in general, while FSU's offense is usually stuck in the mud in the first half. Unless that changes or the defense creates multiple turnovers, FSU may come up just a little short in its comeback attempt. Wake 27, FSU 24.
illow:
