Florida Atlantic @ ECU

[Dollaz]

I've already made a play on ECU -20.5. I expected the line to go up a bit, but it seems to have held steady.

Florida Atlantic, by my rankings is in the 100ish range. ECU, (along with Marshall) are the cream of the crop in C-USA. I've watched their game last week several times as I'm an ODU alum. I think the line is off mainly due to people under estimating ECU's defense based on 38 points given up last week.

In all, ODU ran 76 plays for 460 yards or roughly 6 yards per play. ODU's offense is experience and have one of the best QB's no one has heard about so I expected them to score some points last week. What they did was spread ECU out and patiently hit short passes and converted 3rd downs. (they did hit a slot WRer deep on a 3rd down on a well covered WRer that the ball was just placed perfectly). But, Heinicke beat them a lot with his feet as they had to put so many guys into coverage, that he was able to convert some 3rd downs running (11 for 52 yards). Heinicke is a pro QB and he has several weapons....and they really should have scored less than 30. ECU had some great coverage at times and also were successful at getting pressure.

ECU's defense will be up against a FAU offense than ran 77 plays for 250 yards. They averaged a meager 3.7 yards per attempt. They averaged 3.1 ypa on the ground. I think ECU's defense steps up and shows that they are better than they looked week 1.

On offense, ECU is legit. They are one of the top offenses in the country led by Carden and Hardy. They offense is explosive and is good both on the ground and in the air. FAU's defensive line is tiny...While ECU won't line up and wear down the D-line, they do have a good running back in Cooper. FAU were gashed last week on the ground, but were pretty steady through the air. This week they face a team that can beat them on the ground or thru the air.

Im not one for score predictions, but I expect this to get out of hand. One slight concern is ECU has VT on deck. But, they also have 2 extra days to prepare for VT. (a game which I think ECU realistically has a shot at winning)


Thoughts on this game? I may add more on ECU.

 

[Inspekdah]

FAU should have gotten smoked by 40+. Miami was running down their throats and continued to push practicing the passing game. It resulted in 2 picks in the 1h. One handing FAU 3 points. The other costing Miami 7. Miami also left an aadditional 10-14 with turn over on downs in short yardage situations. FAU offense to me sucks in the red zone and can't sustain drives. This is a monster step up in class for them and ECU will be up for a conference game.

 

[scdoggy]

Agree on ECU, but not enough to play it. Line is dropping a hair (I see a 20 now). I'll be sitting on the sidelines hoping ECU beats them by 50, so I can get a monster line on FAU on 10/26 for that nice sandwich game on Auburn's schedule.....

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I have been looking for reasons to play FAU. I like their coach. I agree that Miami should have scored more. Their WR dropped two TD in first half, but the U is only a 3 point dog to the Gators with many people calling for them to win outright (I am in that category).

Although ODU is a very solid FCS they dont compare to Miami outside their QBs. I agree with Dollaz analysis in everything but the ECU running game. Shoot they only ran for 34 yards on 22 carries last week. FAU is not rated highly by many but they do have a fantastic freshman class. I imagine they will be pleased by the contrast in toughness tonight of the ECU interior lineman after playing tough against a top 15 squad.

250 balanced yards last week bodes well for them wearing out ECU on long drives this evening. They need TOP tonight in order to prevent ECU from going highlight reel with their pass attack. ECU is the type of team (At least last year) where the score could be close and in 5 minutes they put up 3 tds. That scares me but I lean FAU.

 

[Dollaz]

FYI, ODU is a step up from an FCS squad. They are in the transistion and added schollys this year. By all accounts last year they were near the top in C-USA recruiting.

They won't have the defense of Miami by any chance, but I'm not really worried about FAU on offense. (they will get some, but I like ECU to come out and prove the defense is improved from last year).

ODU's offensive line averages 305 with a couple guys that may get a shot in training camp. And as importantly they have an explosive offense headlined by a star QB. If FAU doesn't fix the run issues they had last week, they will give up 50.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

For sure Dollaz, I respect ODU. Great insight. Look forward to the game.

 

[Schrute]

Tough game IMO.

FAU with extra day negates travel in my book. The game is on TV so Ruffin may be able to use that to avoid the look ahead to the home game against VT but I doubt it. The VT game has been the game marked on the calendars in Greenville and I just don't like the spot situationally

All that said there is a chance I end up on ecu or over

 

[wadegarrett]

Liking over

 

[TahoeLegend]

I'm taking the overs in this game and in the late college game.

Strange line on the Ariz State/Sac State. Az State is -37x, but the total is only 49. I've never seen the line and total so close before. It looks so easy it may be a trap. Az State average 38 last year and they are better this year, in the second year under Graham, and Graham will score as many as he can. He never calls off the dogs.

He played an FCS team in his first game last year--Norther Arizona, a better program than Sac State--and beat them 63-6.

Looks like an easy over to me.

 

[nbafan88]

down to -19

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Some takeaway/observation about FAU. I mentioned a lil in the ingame. Through 2gms against what should be 2 of the best offenses in CFB, FAU has covered & been under. The key in that? Held both opponents to a total of 9/27 on 3rd, 9/16 56.3% passing on 3rd & the whopper just 3/16 18.7% converting by pass on 3rd. FAU will stink because they have 5 QBs or no QBs depending on how u wanna see it. But they get teams of the field enough on 3rd downs to balance out giving up big plays to cover & stay under right now.

 

[Dollaz]

Yeah, FAU has a very good defense, but they just cannot score at all. They are going to be tough in conference if they can just not turn the ball over.

Really felt ECU was the right side.......fumble at the 5, fg when ball starts in red zone, and late td given up with FAU starters vs. non starters, but that's the risk of a 20 line.

 

[The Capping Genius]

Yeah, FAU has a very good defense, but they just cannot score at all. They are going to be tough in conference if they can just not turn the ball over.

Really felt ECU was the right side.......fumble at the 5, fg when ball starts in red zone, and late td given up with FAU starters vs. non starters, but that's the risk of a 20 line.

An ats loss like that is expected. There were 50 thousnand fans holding a football pool ticket with FAU, so the team had to try and cover. The blown plays were evened out, but we still should have played the whole 60 minutes and got the cover. Its only one small loss and we have months to continue winning.

EC WAS the right side all day.:shake:

 

[Dollaz]

Yeah, I been in the game long enough that it's happened to me dozens of times and I've been on the other side just as much. Good luck to you.