Scouting Report Picks Florida
<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=9>Florida at Ohio State Matchups</TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>QB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>RB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>WR</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>OL</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>DL</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>LB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>DB</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>ST</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>Coach</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" align=middle width=62>Overall</TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD><TD align=middle width=62>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)--------------------->
Florida Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Florida can thank Michigan for drawing up a blueprint for success versus Ohio State's defense, which included spreading the field with multiple-receiver sets throughout most of the Nov. 18 meeting. Considering that is coach Urban Meyer's philosophy to begin with, it's hard to imagine the Gators going in a different direction. Furthermore, Florida has an even greater wealth of talent at wide receiver with
Dallas Baker,
Andre Caldwell,
Percy Harvin and
Jemalle Cornelius, which will put even more pressure on Ohio State's defensive secondary.
<!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=225 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>Florida vs. Ohio State</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=225></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width="100%"><TABLE align=center><TBODY><TR><TD align=left>
</TD><TD align=middle>
vs. </TD><TD align=right>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
When: Jan. 8, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Glendale, Ariz.
Preview:
Smith leads Ohio State into BCS title game vs. Florida </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)--------------------->
Senior QB
Chris Leak can be extremely dangerous as a passer when given time to throw. The senior signal-caller lacks ideal size, yet he displays good field vision and a strong arm to spread the ball around to his multitude of weapons. Leak's favorite targets are Baker and Caldwell, who have combined for 1,468 yards and 14 touchdowns on 111 receptions this season. Baker is more of a sure-handed, chain-moving possession receiver that comes up big in the clutch, while Caldwell is more of a speedster with the ability to exploit man-to-man coverage. Cornelius is a reliable slot receiver that ranks third on the team in receptions, but Harvin is an even bigger threat as a versatile true freshman. Harvin has battled injuries throughout his rookie season but he is the fastest member of the Gator team and he averages 14.7 yards per catch and 11.3 yards per carry. The Buckeyes also must account for freshman TE
Cornelius Ingram, who ranks fourth on the team with 26 catches.
Ohio State is blessed with one of the nation's premier shutdown cover corners in sophomore Malcolm Jenkins, who has notched 51 tackles and four interceptions this season. Unfortunately, there's a significant drop-off after him in terms of man-to-man cover skills in the secondary. No. 2 CB Antonio Smith is undersized and lacks ideal speed, which is why he typically needs deep-safety support. Nickel back Donald Washington is bigger and faster than Smith but he still makes inexperienced mistakes as a redshirt freshman. DSs Brandon Mitchell and Jamario O'Neal have combined for five interceptions on the season and they both play the run effectively, but neither possesses the speed or athleticism to match up one-on-one in coverage versus any of the Gators' top-four receivers. With that in mind, Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Heacock will need to protect his secondary by wisely mixing in lots of different man-zone coverage combinations throughout the game.
It would also make Heacock's life easier if his defensive front-four would turn up the heat on Leak. DT Quinn Pitcock is a monster of an interior pass rusher with eight sacks on the season, and DE Vernon Gholston has come on strong with 7½ sacks off the perimeter. Ohio State can't afford to dedicate too many of its linebackers to the blitz because it needs all the help it can get in coverage. So the success of Florida's offense likely will come down to its offensive line's effectiveness in pass protection versus Ohio State's defensive front four. While Leak is an effective passer when given time, he also has a reputation of self-destructing when forced to deal with consistent pressure. The more hits Leak takes the worse his mechanics tend to become, which leads to him throwing the ball off his back foot and occasionally up for grabs.
Florida has lacked a reliable rushing attack throughout most of the 2006 season and it certainly won't turn into a power-run offensive unit for this game. However, don't be surprised if the Gators get some big chunks of yardage on the ground from time-to-time, despite the fact that the Buckeyes surrender only 93.6 yards per game on the ground. The layoff should help heal nicked starting RB
DeShawn Wynn, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has the best combination of size, vision, patience and burst of any of the Gator backs. Florida also does a good job of mixing in some reverses and counters to speedy WRs Harvin and Caldwell.
The biggest X-factor with Florida is true freshman
Tim Tebow, who continues to find success as a situational running quarterback. Tebow has a strong arm but he's erratic, which is why he has only attempted 32 passes on the season. However, he is a big and instinctive runner that averages 5.4 yards per carry and has scored on seven of his 79 carries as a rookie. Per usual, expect Tebow to replace Leak on five-to-ten short-yardage and/or goalline occasions throughout the course of this game.
On the flip side, the biggest X-factor with Ohio State is its ability to generate takeaways. LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman have developed into big-time playmakers as first-year starters and they anchor a unit that ranks third in the nation with 21 passes intercepted. The Buckeyes will give up lots of yards and will look overwhelmed at times, but they are very much a bend-but-don't-break unit that tightens the clamps as the field shrinks.
Ohio State Offense vs. Florida Defense
QB
Troy Smith has been far and away the best player in college football this season. He can still beat defenses with his feet but Smith has done most of his damage through the air to his outstanding corps of receivers.
Ted Ginn is the most dangerous weapon of the group because of his world-class speed. His route-running skills and hands have also improved this season, which is evident in his team-high 59 receptions. Fellow junior
Anthony Gonzalez is among the premier route runners in the nation and he takes advantage of all the extra attention given to Ginn on the opposite side. Together, Ginn and Gonzalez have accounted for 1,504 receiving yards and 17 touchdown catches on the season. The depth of this unit was never more evident than in the Michigan game, when No. 3 WR
Brian Robiskie, a tall, blossoming sophomore, and No. 4 WR
Roy Hall, a massive (6-foot-3, 240 pounds) tight end-wide receiver hybrid, combined for 127 yards and two touchdowns on 10 receptions.
The Gators lack ideal depth at cornerback but they have enough athletic playmakers in their secondary to match up better in coverage than any other unit the Buckeyes have faced. For starters, Ryan Smith has eight interceptions at one cornerback spot and Reggie Nelson has six picks at safety. Smith lacks ideal size but he's athletic enough to match up one-on-one occasionally versus Ginn and frequently versus Gonzalez, which will give defensive coordinators Charlie Strong and Greg Mattison some flexibility in terms of rolling coverages to the opposite side. Nelson spends most of his time playing centerfield and reading the quarterback's eyes, but he also has the size, speed and experience (he has started games at cornerback during his career) to play man-to-man coverage at times versus one of Ohio State's slot receivers. LCB Reggie Lewis is a former wide receiver that continues to improve his coverage skills with more experience at the position. Markihe Anderson is another converted receiver with below-average size but very good speed and agility as a sub-package defensive back. Finally, SS Tony Joiner is the least gifted athlete of the bunch, so expect him to cheat up in underneath-zone coverage and occasionally to take on the bigger and slower Hall head-to-head.
As is the case on the other side of the ball, Florida must get consistent pressure on Smith without being forced to incorporate too many linebackers on the blitz. The Gator secondary is far more capable in coverage than the Wolverines' secondary that Smith most recently picked apart, but it still needs as much help as possible in order to keep Ginn, Gonzalez, Robiskie and Hall somewhat in check. The good news for Gator fans is that despite DT Marcus Thomas being kicked off the team, they are still loaded with talent along their defensive line. Ray McDonald got moved inside to fill Thomas' vacated spot and has become a disruptive force with 33 tackles, including three sacks with five passes broken up. Meanwhile, DEs Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey generate consistent pressure off the edges, combining for 19 tackles for loss and 13½ sacks on the season.
Smith and the Ohio State passing attack gets most of the attention but the truth is that coach Jim Tressel's team continues to run the ball more frequently and more effectively. The Buckeye offensive line is a physical and aggressive unit that averages more than 312 pounds per member. It typically does a great job of opening holes for RBs
Antonio Pittman and
Chris Wells, who have combined for 1,738 yards and 20 touchdowns on an average of 27.8 carries per contest. Pittman isn't flashy but he's a tough north-south runner. Wells, a true freshman, is an emerging star with better size and straight-line speed. The Gators will likely be forced to play more nickel and dime personnel than they will be in a base 4-3 alignment. That means their defensive line needs to be disciplined in their gaps and LBs Brandon Siler (MLB) and Earl Everett (WLB) need to take great angles in pursuit and wrap-up soundly in space. Everett, a senior, and Siler, a junior, are the team's leading tacklers and make up one of the best linebacker tandems in the country, which bodes well for Florida's ability to keep Pittman and Wells in check on the ground. However, neither linebacker possesses especially good size, which makes them vulnerable to wearing down as the game progresses. If Ohio State's offensive line can consistently reach the second level and get their bigger bodies on Everett and Siler from the first snap on, it could lead to some big play on the ground for Pittman and Wells in the second half.
Special Teams
Florida PK Chris Hetland was nearly benched for the SEC title game after connecting on just three of his first 12 field goal attempts this season. However, Meyer stuck with him and it paid off, as Hetland hit his only field goal attempt of the championship game from 33 yards out. While that kick helps his confidence, Hetland still is considered a major liability for Florida's special team's units heading into the BCS National Championship Game. Also concerning is the ineffectiveness of Florida's kickoff return team, which ranks 116th nationally with an average of just 16.9 yards per return. True freshman
Brandon James and sophomore
Kestahn Moore have handled all but one of the kickoff returns this season.
The good news is that the Gators have been far more competent in the punting game. Senior PT Eric Wilbur is averaging 42.2 yards per kick and has landed 22 of his 49 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard-line. Wilbur has also been blessed with an outstanding coverage team, which is why the Gators rank sixth in the nation in net punting (38.2). James has struggled to find his groove returning kickoffs but he is a natural on punt returns, where he averages an impressive 11.6 yards per attempt with a long of 77 yards for a score.
Ohio State has not been great on special teams this season but it still has a clear edge over Florida in this facet of the game. First-year place-kicker Aaron Pettrey has been better than advertised, connecting on eight of 11 field goal attempts with a long of 51 yards during the regular season. He also does a fine job on kickoffs, where 35 of his 61 kicks have gone for touchbacks. If there's one concern, though, it's that Pettrey is unproven in high-pressure situations. Ohio State is solid in the punting game thanks to A.J. Trapasso, who is averaging 41 yards per attempt. Trapasso does a fine job of kicking within his coverage and he also has shown good directional skills by landing 15 of 43 kicks inside the opponents' 20-yard-line.
Ginn is averaging 11.1 yards per punt return, including a 60-yard touchdown scamper versus Michigan State. However, Ginn has been far less effective handling kickoffs, where he is averaging 20.4 yards on 17 returns with a long of just 37 yards this season.
Matchups
• Ohio State QB Troy Smith vs. Florida DS Reggie Nelson
• Ohio State LOT Alex Boone vs. Florida DE Jarvis Moss
• Florida WR Dallas Baker vs. Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins
Scouts' Edge
Ohio State has the more talented team and it has been more impressive on the field throughout the 2006 regular season. However, Florida has three key factors working in its favor that should lead to an upset in Glendale.
Firstly, the issue of time between games plays to Florida's advantage. The 51-day layoff could prove to be a disadvantage for a Buckeyes' offense that was clicking on all cylinders when it last took the field. Conversely, while 37-day layoff is long enough for the Gators to get some key players rested, it's not too long to get out of rhythm.
Secondly, Florida's defensive speed is underrated. Ohio State is blessed with tremendous offensive weapons, as witnessed in its dismantling of the Wolverines' well-respected defense. However, the Gator's defensive front seven is even faster and their secondary matches up far better athletically versus the Buckeyes' deep corps of receivers.
Thirdly, Meyer's creativity should pay off. Meyer has had just enough time to make some necessary tweaks offensively. Wynn and Harvin are well-rested, which will allow the Gators to establish a more consistent ground attack. Leak has enough weapons to spread the Buckeyes out and neutralize their defensive speed, and Meyer has undoubtedly thrown some wrinkles in for his favorite weapon, Tebow. When it's all said and done; Florida will play its best game of the season and do just enough to pull off the shocking upset over heavily favored Ohio State -- much like Ohio State did to Miami in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl.
Prediction: Gators 27, Buckeyes 24
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/features/take2?gameId=270080194