Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Handicapper Analysis
The belief in Jacksonville is incredible.
Before the regular season started, the commonplace perception of both Houston and Jacksonville was that both teams are about equal.
What did the Jaguars do, exactly, to upend this perception?
They beat a critically beleaguered Charger team that led Houston by all of three points late last week and a Colt squad that always loses in Jacksonville.
But they also lost to the Commanders and failed to cover the spread against the Eagles.
Houston, meanwhile, is constantly competitive.
Jacksonville just isn't a good or talented enough team to be laying seven.
While Texan quarterback Davis Mills has a terrible road record, he has mostly played strong teams.
His one road win came, you guessed it, against Jacksonville.
Best Bet: Texans +7 at -110 with FanDuel
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Handicapper Analysis
New York's offense is hampered by an anemic running game and a quarterback whose 59.0 passer rating hardly inspires optimism especially after his season-long struggles last year.
Miami will start its backup quarterback in journeyman Teddy Bridgewater.
Just like the recently injured Wilson still needs to do, Bridgewater will have to find chemistry with his new receivers, who will contend with New York's restocked secondary.
The Dolphins' anemic running back group -- the team averages 3.5 YPC -- won't help Bridgewater.
Both defenses merit optimism -- Miami's except its first half against Lamar Jackson's Baltimore and the Jets who added meaningful personnel for its pass and run defense.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 at -106 with FanDuel
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Commanders
Handicapper Analysis
After two tough games to start their season, the Titans have evidently found their footing.
Behind strong starts protected by solid defense, they beat a very talented Raider squad before beating Indianapolis on the road.
The Titans, behind its vastly improving run defense that is allowing 78.3 rushing yards per game in its three games after shutting down Indianapolis' star running back, have figured things out.
Washington, meanwhile, is failing to be competitive as Carson Wentz struggles to be efficient and to avoid interceptions.
While the Commander run defense has limited even run-friendly squads like Philadelphia, its offensive problems will help keep this game low-scoring.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 at -105 with FanDuel
Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots
Handicapper Analysis
New England might start its third-string quarterback, rookie Bailey Zappe out of Western Kentucky.
Even if Mac Jones does start, despite his ankle issues, he will have problems against Lion pressure.
Detroit's defensive style is uniquely blitz-friendly, which is bad news for a quarterback with injured ankles as well as for Zappe -- Zappe's PFF grade under pressure was miserable in college.
The Lions will win this game because, behind Jared Goff in one of his best seasons ever and behind a generally high-scoring offense, they are the one team in this contest that can score easily.
Among other things, they can take advantage of Lawrence Guy's absence, which has made the Patriot run defense vulnerable even to backup running backs.
Best Bet: Lions +3.5 at -115 with FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
Handicapper Analysis
A couple weeks ago, the 49ers were positioned as three-point favorites in Carolina.
This strong shift in the odds in their favor seems unjustified to me given their perpetual offensive problems.
Led -- and in many ways hampered -- by a game-manager at quarterback, the 49ers are ultra reliant on their run game.
Running at a higher rate than other teams puts them at a disadvantage, though, against a Panther run defense that has given Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara their worst performances of the season.
With a healthy CMC on offense, the Panthers are reliably good for around 20 points, which is more than enough to achieve victory against San Francisco.
Best Bet: Panthers +6.5 at -110 with FanDuel
