Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Handicapper Analysis
Seven feels like much too low of a total considering that Rockie starter Ryan Feltner is pitching tonight.
Feltner rarely manages to last six innings.
Meanwhile, he has allowed three runs or more in five of his last six starts.
Expect, then, to see San Francisco get at least three innings to score even more runs off Colorado's bullpen, which yields the second-highest ERA among bullpens.
Carlos Rodon starts for the Giants.
It is he who largely explains why the total is as low as it is.
But Colorado can do some damage with their bats tonight because Rodon is a lefty, and the Rockies have the third-highest slugging rate against lefties.
Best Bet: Over 7 at -120 with FanDuel
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Handicapper Analysis
Seattle is a great example of why it is generally a bad idea to bet on a team simply because it has a greater "need" to win than its opponent.
While the Mariners, unlike Texas, have a chance to play postseason baseball, it is also true that the Mariners are far from playing their best baseball at the moment.
The following trend applies tonight: the Marinersare 0-5 in their last five games following a win.
Mariner starter Marco Gonzales has a good track record against Ranger batters when they visit Texas, having allowed two runs or fewer against the Rangers in each of his last three home starts against them.
Texas starter Jon Gray, though, has allowed four runs in both of his starts against Seattle.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at -118 with FanDuel
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Handicapper Analysis
Obviously, with Shohei Ohtani slated to start for the Angels tonight, they are heavily favored and therefore playable either on the run-line or not at all.
Crucially, I like the Angels' chances tonight against Cole Irvin.
Oakland's starter has a problem with allowing home runs. He allows 1.21 per game and has allowed a total of four home runs in his last two starts.
This problem is great for Angel batters because they depend rather heavily on home runs, ranking 25thin runs per game but 11thin home runs per game.
Meanwhile, Ohtani is reliable, having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts.
Best Bet: Angels RL (-1.5) at -118 with FanDuel
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Handicapper Analysis
Both teams are uniquely bad at hitting left-handed pitching.
While the Brewers rank 27thin slugging .360 against left-handed pitchers, Miami ranks last in slugging .328 against them.
This mutual fact is relevant because both teams are facing a left-handed starting pitcher tonight.
Miami's Braxton Garrett enters this game a terrific "under" pitcher. The "under" hits in 78.6 percent of his starts.
Meanwhile, fellow lefty Eric Lauer starts for the Brewers tonight.
He finally gets to pitch again in Milwaukee where he has been vastly more effective than on the road.
Lauer merits optimism tonight because the Marlins rank last in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 at -114 with FanDuel
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Handicapper Analysis
Tampa Bay starts a left-handed pitcher in Jeffrey Springs tonight.
Springs has a strong advantage against the Guardians because he is a lefty and, throughout the year, the Guardians have struggled to hit left-handed pitching.
Cleveland ranks 29thin slugging against left-handed pitching and, specifically, it ranks 27thin slugging against Springs' favorite pitches from lefties.
Cal Quantrill will need to pitch a good game in order to keep his team competitive.
Quantrill relies primarily on two pitches, his sinker and cutter.
These two pitches make up just over 80 percent of his arsenal.
Ray batters look reliable because they rank third in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rays RL (-1.5) at +150 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
Seven feels like much too low of a total considering that Rockie starter Ryan Feltner is pitching tonight.
Feltner rarely manages to last six innings.
Meanwhile, he has allowed three runs or more in five of his last six starts.
Expect, then, to see San Francisco get at least three innings to score even more runs off Colorado's bullpen, which yields the second-highest ERA among bullpens.
Carlos Rodon starts for the Giants.
It is he who largely explains why the total is as low as it is.
But Colorado can do some damage with their bats tonight because Rodon is a lefty, and the Rockies have the third-highest slugging rate against lefties.
Best Bet: Over 7 at -120 with FanDuel
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Handicapper Analysis
Seattle is a great example of why it is generally a bad idea to bet on a team simply because it has a greater "need" to win than its opponent.
While the Mariners, unlike Texas, have a chance to play postseason baseball, it is also true that the Mariners are far from playing their best baseball at the moment.
The following trend applies tonight: the Marinersare 0-5 in their last five games following a win.
Mariner starter Marco Gonzales has a good track record against Ranger batters when they visit Texas, having allowed two runs or fewer against the Rangers in each of his last three home starts against them.
Texas starter Jon Gray, though, has allowed four runs in both of his starts against Seattle.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at -118 with FanDuel
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Handicapper Analysis
Obviously, with Shohei Ohtani slated to start for the Angels tonight, they are heavily favored and therefore playable either on the run-line or not at all.
Crucially, I like the Angels' chances tonight against Cole Irvin.
Oakland's starter has a problem with allowing home runs. He allows 1.21 per game and has allowed a total of four home runs in his last two starts.
This problem is great for Angel batters because they depend rather heavily on home runs, ranking 25thin runs per game but 11thin home runs per game.
Meanwhile, Ohtani is reliable, having allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts.
Best Bet: Angels RL (-1.5) at -118 with FanDuel
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Handicapper Analysis
Both teams are uniquely bad at hitting left-handed pitching.
While the Brewers rank 27thin slugging .360 against left-handed pitchers, Miami ranks last in slugging .328 against them.
This mutual fact is relevant because both teams are facing a left-handed starting pitcher tonight.
Miami's Braxton Garrett enters this game a terrific "under" pitcher. The "under" hits in 78.6 percent of his starts.
Meanwhile, fellow lefty Eric Lauer starts for the Brewers tonight.
He finally gets to pitch again in Milwaukee where he has been vastly more effective than on the road.
Lauer merits optimism tonight because the Marlins rank last in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 at -114 with FanDuel
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Handicapper Analysis
Tampa Bay starts a left-handed pitcher in Jeffrey Springs tonight.
Springs has a strong advantage against the Guardians because he is a lefty and, throughout the year, the Guardians have struggled to hit left-handed pitching.
Cleveland ranks 29thin slugging against left-handed pitching and, specifically, it ranks 27thin slugging against Springs' favorite pitches from lefties.
Cal Quantrill will need to pitch a good game in order to keep his team competitive.
Quantrill relies primarily on two pitches, his sinker and cutter.
These two pitches make up just over 80 percent of his arsenal.
Ray batters look reliable because they rank third in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rays RL (-1.5) at +150 with FanDuel
