Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Handicapper Analysis
National starter Josiah Gray has been, among other things, struggling with his command.
Besides generally struggling to throw pitches in the strike zone, he has walked a total of nine batters in his past two starts.
As heat maps show, Gray also struggles to avoid throwing pitches in the most dangerous parts of the strike zone, the middle parts.
These two struggles often coincide: when pitchers struggle to throw strikes, they frequently resort to throwing pitches down the middle.
Even if Gray weren't struggling with command, the Cardinals rank well above-average in slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Meanwhile, facing one of baseball's most anemic lineups, Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright looks primed to bounce back after a rare bad start/
Best Bet: Cardinals RL at -128 with FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
Red pitcher Luis Cessa is gaining comfort in the starting rotation.
He is coming off a strong outing in which he yielded two runs in five innings to Colorado.
His ability to last several innings will be decisive tonight because of the extent to which he matches up solidly against Cub batters.
Cub batters rank below-average in slugging against Cessa's favorite pitches from righties.
More prominently, Cessa is a strong ground-ball-inducing pitcher, and the Cubs' slugging rate is .98 lower against ground ball-inducing pitchers than fly ball-inducing ones.
I find it ridiculous that Chicago is favored here given the above information about Cessa plus the fact that, per opposing slug rate, Cub starter Adrian Sampson is massively worse at home than on the road.
Best Bet: Reds ML at +120 with FanDuel
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Handicapper Analysis
Marlin starter Sandy Alcantara regularly merits confidence because of his consistency.
When he is coming off a poor start, then he deserves even more confidence because he reliably bounces back strongly.
For example, when he gave up six runs on August 21 he conceded one in nine innings in his following start.
Before, he gave up four runs on August 10 before throwing seven shutout innings on August 15.
The list continues.
Philadelphia starter Kyle Gibson, meanwhile, also looks primed to bounce back from a weak outing.
He has been reliably solid against Marlin batters this season, allowing one or two earned runs against them in each of his last three starts.
Best Bet: Under 7 at -105 with FanDuel
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Handicapper Analysis
Minnesota's Sonny Gray enters this game in strong form, having yielded two runs or fewer in each of his past four games.
His solid form gives him an extra boost against a Yankee lineup that has fallen down to Earth after its incredible start to the season.
New York, in the second half of the season, ranks 20thin slugging against Gray's favorite pitches from righties.
The Yankees may still seem to be favored justifiably because Nestor Cortes is pitching today.
But Cortes won't be near his best because he last pitched on August 21, so he'll be rusty.
Plus, Minnesota ranks 10thagainst his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Twins ML at +120 with FanDuel
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Chicago starts Dylan Cease today.
Cease's form has been superb.
In his past two starts, he's lasted a total of 17 innings while allowing a total of three hits.
He nearly achieved a no-hitter in his past start.
Even if he weren't in such strong form, Oakland batters rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Lack of Oakland scoring will make Chicago's victory rather easy tonight because the White Sox are sure to score a lot.
Oakland's starter is a lefty and the White Sox rank ninth in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: White Sox RL at -108 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
National starter Josiah Gray has been, among other things, struggling with his command.
Besides generally struggling to throw pitches in the strike zone, he has walked a total of nine batters in his past two starts.
As heat maps show, Gray also struggles to avoid throwing pitches in the most dangerous parts of the strike zone, the middle parts.
These two struggles often coincide: when pitchers struggle to throw strikes, they frequently resort to throwing pitches down the middle.
Even if Gray weren't struggling with command, the Cardinals rank well above-average in slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Meanwhile, facing one of baseball's most anemic lineups, Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright looks primed to bounce back after a rare bad start/
Best Bet: Cardinals RL at -128 with FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
Red pitcher Luis Cessa is gaining comfort in the starting rotation.
He is coming off a strong outing in which he yielded two runs in five innings to Colorado.
His ability to last several innings will be decisive tonight because of the extent to which he matches up solidly against Cub batters.
Cub batters rank below-average in slugging against Cessa's favorite pitches from righties.
More prominently, Cessa is a strong ground-ball-inducing pitcher, and the Cubs' slugging rate is .98 lower against ground ball-inducing pitchers than fly ball-inducing ones.
I find it ridiculous that Chicago is favored here given the above information about Cessa plus the fact that, per opposing slug rate, Cub starter Adrian Sampson is massively worse at home than on the road.
Best Bet: Reds ML at +120 with FanDuel
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Handicapper Analysis
Marlin starter Sandy Alcantara regularly merits confidence because of his consistency.
When he is coming off a poor start, then he deserves even more confidence because he reliably bounces back strongly.
For example, when he gave up six runs on August 21 he conceded one in nine innings in his following start.
Before, he gave up four runs on August 10 before throwing seven shutout innings on August 15.
The list continues.
Philadelphia starter Kyle Gibson, meanwhile, also looks primed to bounce back from a weak outing.
He has been reliably solid against Marlin batters this season, allowing one or two earned runs against them in each of his last three starts.
Best Bet: Under 7 at -105 with FanDuel
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Handicapper Analysis
Minnesota's Sonny Gray enters this game in strong form, having yielded two runs or fewer in each of his past four games.
His solid form gives him an extra boost against a Yankee lineup that has fallen down to Earth after its incredible start to the season.
New York, in the second half of the season, ranks 20thin slugging against Gray's favorite pitches from righties.
The Yankees may still seem to be favored justifiably because Nestor Cortes is pitching today.
But Cortes won't be near his best because he last pitched on August 21, so he'll be rusty.
Plus, Minnesota ranks 10thagainst his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Twins ML at +120 with FanDuel
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Chicago starts Dylan Cease today.
Cease's form has been superb.
In his past two starts, he's lasted a total of 17 innings while allowing a total of three hits.
He nearly achieved a no-hitter in his past start.
Even if he weren't in such strong form, Oakland batters rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Lack of Oakland scoring will make Chicago's victory rather easy tonight because the White Sox are sure to score a lot.
Oakland's starter is a lefty and the White Sox rank ninth in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: White Sox RL at -108 with FanDuel
