St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
The Cardinals are in a great spot today because they are coming off a loss.
They are enjoying a 6-0 run in their last six games that directly followed a loss.
As they did on Tuesday night, they are sure to play angry after losing to their rivals.
Moreover, they enjoy a strong matchup advantage.
Their starter today, Dakota Hudson, is very much a ground-ball pitcher.
Chicago, however, slugs an awful .366 against this type of pitcher.
Moreover, St. Louis ranks number one in slugging against Cub starter Marcus Stroman's favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Cardinals ML at -124 with FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Handicapper Analysis
This is one of those games in which you have to bite the bullet and play a chalky wager because everything lines up here very nicely for Philadelphia.
The Phillies are hot, having scored 18 runs in their three-game hit streak.
They have Aaron Nola on the mound,who has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in each of his last four starts.
Meanwhile, the Reds are starting an unestablished guy in Justin Dunn who has yielded an FIP of over 6.00 in all three of his starts.
Plus, the Phillies rank eighth in slugging against Dunn's favorite pitches from righties while the Reds rank 28th in slugging against Nola's favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Phillies RL at -160 with FanDuel
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Handicapper Analysis
This is a great spot to back Guardian starter Triston McKenzie in.
Overall in his career, he is a much better daytime pitcher.
This year, his daytime ERA is 2.02.
Plus, time aside, he already matches up well against Mariner batters in that they rank below average against his favorite pitches from righties.
McKenzie is a guy who reliably goes deep into outings -- he has endured at least six innings in each of his last five starts.
Seattle's southpaw starter Marco Gonzales has much less to boast about.
Crucially, Cleveland ranks 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Guardians RL at +136 with FanDuel
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper Analysis
This is a great spot for Baltimore because the Orioles are coming off a loss and playing at home.
In the second half of the season, they are 6-0 in home games that directly followed a defeat.
They also benefit from facing Lance Lynn, a White Sox starter with a career ERA of over 7.00 in Baltimore.
Jordan Lyles starts for Baltimore.
He's been a great guy to back this season in home games, in which he's yielding over +5 units.
White Sox batters merit pessimism today particularly because they rank 24th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Orioles ML at -102 with FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Handicapper Analysis
Toronto is being way undervalued here given the extent to which the starting pitcher matchup favors them.
Kevin Gausman is a reliable force against Red Sox batters.
This year, he is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in four starts against Boston.
Gausman is usually excellent, anyways. He's yielded a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three of his past four starts.
For Boston, a guy in Kutter Crawford starts whose issues with command entail that he allows a relatively large number of walks and home runs per nine innings.
Plus, Toronto ranks fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Blue Jays RL at -102 with FanDuel
