Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Handicapper Analysis
This season, the "under" is hitting in 69.2 percent of White Sox starter Johnny Cueto's starts.
Cueto reliably goes deep into his outings while allowing few runs.
Impressively, he has lasted seven or eight innings in each of his last three starts.
In his five starts against division rivals, the lineups he's most familiar with, Cueto has been particularly solid.
He allowed more than two earned runs in only one of those starts, when he allowed three earned runs in seven innings against Cleveland.
Cueto looks particularly strong tonight because the Royals rank well below-average against his favorite pitches from righties.
Similarly, the White Sox rank 25th against Royal starter Kris Bubic's favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 9 at -118 with FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Handicapper Analysis
It's relevant to my favorite bet for this game to observe Robbie Ray's history against the Astros.
This year, the Astros have always annihilated Ray, amassing 13 runs against him in three starts in which he lasted a total of 10.2 innings.
They reliably thrive against Ray because they rank second against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Primarily, Ray throws a fastball, slider, and sinker.
New York looks particularly trustworthy today because, by a drastic margin, it ranks first in slugging .524 against Ray's favorite pitches from lefties.
Seattle will also pile on some runs because it ranks eighth in Yankee starter Nestor Cortes' favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 at -112 (FanDuel)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Handicapper Analysis
Cardinal starter Jose Quintana just pitched in Colorado.
While he allowed a lot of runs, his 3.11 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed very well individually.
His strong individual performance in that start is consistent with his most recent starts in which he has reliably thrived.
He has allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last three starts, owning even those lineups that match up well against him.
St. Louis batters merit optimism tonight because they match up well against Rockie starter Kyle Freeland.
Against Freeland's collection of pitches from lefties, they rank a solid ninth in slugging despite not regularly playing in such a hitters-friendly ballpark.
Best Bet: Cardinals RL at -111 (FanDuel)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Handicapper Analysis
The Guardians are enjoying a strong collective team rhythm as they've built on their success against top-level Houston by owning Detroit in the season opener.
No matter the pitching matchup, the Tigers have repeatedly been owned by their opponent.
They are repeatedly losing games, and, when they lose games, they are doing so by many runs.
Specifically, they've lost eight of their last 10. All eight of those losses came by multiple runs.
Plus, Guardian batters match up well against Tiger starter Drew Hutchison based on their slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Cleveland starter Aaron Civale is way more reliable tonight.
He is a perfect 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his career in Detroit.
Best Bet: Guardians RL at +100 (FanDuel)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper Analysis
Toronto starter Jose Berrios is worth relying on today because of his unequivocally strong history in Baltimore.
In the Orioles' venue, he is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA.
His unrelenting historical success in Baltimore is consistent with his success against division rivals.
Berrios has been profitable for bettors to back in general, but this is especially true when he faces division rivals, the teams he is most familiar with.
When Berrios starts against other AL East teams, Toronto is 5-1 while yielding +4.6 units.
Meanwhile, expect a strong output from Blue Jay batters because they rank eighth in slugging against Oriole starter Dean Kremer's favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Blue Jays RL at +105 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
This season, the "under" is hitting in 69.2 percent of White Sox starter Johnny Cueto's starts.
Cueto reliably goes deep into his outings while allowing few runs.
Impressively, he has lasted seven or eight innings in each of his last three starts.
In his five starts against division rivals, the lineups he's most familiar with, Cueto has been particularly solid.
He allowed more than two earned runs in only one of those starts, when he allowed three earned runs in seven innings against Cleveland.
Cueto looks particularly strong tonight because the Royals rank well below-average against his favorite pitches from righties.
Similarly, the White Sox rank 25th against Royal starter Kris Bubic's favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 9 at -118 with FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Handicapper Analysis
It's relevant to my favorite bet for this game to observe Robbie Ray's history against the Astros.
This year, the Astros have always annihilated Ray, amassing 13 runs against him in three starts in which he lasted a total of 10.2 innings.
They reliably thrive against Ray because they rank second against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Primarily, Ray throws a fastball, slider, and sinker.
New York looks particularly trustworthy today because, by a drastic margin, it ranks first in slugging .524 against Ray's favorite pitches from lefties.
Seattle will also pile on some runs because it ranks eighth in Yankee starter Nestor Cortes' favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 at -112 (FanDuel)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Handicapper Analysis
Cardinal starter Jose Quintana just pitched in Colorado.
While he allowed a lot of runs, his 3.11 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed very well individually.
His strong individual performance in that start is consistent with his most recent starts in which he has reliably thrived.
He has allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last three starts, owning even those lineups that match up well against him.
St. Louis batters merit optimism tonight because they match up well against Rockie starter Kyle Freeland.
Against Freeland's collection of pitches from lefties, they rank a solid ninth in slugging despite not regularly playing in such a hitters-friendly ballpark.
Best Bet: Cardinals RL at -111 (FanDuel)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
Handicapper Analysis
The Guardians are enjoying a strong collective team rhythm as they've built on their success against top-level Houston by owning Detroit in the season opener.
No matter the pitching matchup, the Tigers have repeatedly been owned by their opponent.
They are repeatedly losing games, and, when they lose games, they are doing so by many runs.
Specifically, they've lost eight of their last 10. All eight of those losses came by multiple runs.
Plus, Guardian batters match up well against Tiger starter Drew Hutchison based on their slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Cleveland starter Aaron Civale is way more reliable tonight.
He is a perfect 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his career in Detroit.
Best Bet: Guardians RL at +100 (FanDuel)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper Analysis
Toronto starter Jose Berrios is worth relying on today because of his unequivocally strong history in Baltimore.
In the Orioles' venue, he is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA.
His unrelenting historical success in Baltimore is consistent with his success against division rivals.
Berrios has been profitable for bettors to back in general, but this is especially true when he faces division rivals, the teams he is most familiar with.
When Berrios starts against other AL East teams, Toronto is 5-1 while yielding +4.6 units.
Meanwhile, expect a strong output from Blue Jay batters because they rank eighth in slugging against Oriole starter Dean Kremer's favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Blue Jays RL at +105 with FanDuel
