Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Handicapper Analysis
The Angels are favored tonight, and I find this ridiculous for two reasons.
One, the Angels can't figure out how to win right now.
Team rhythm is important because it permeates a team's effort in a given game.
The Angels are impossible to back because they are suffering a 14-game losing streak.
Two, they are favored because Shohei Ohtani enjoys strong public perception.
But Boston matches up excellently against him, ranking fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, coming off a pair of solid starts, will perpetuate the misery of L.A.'s lineup.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at +110 (FanDuel)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Handicapper Analysis
Baltimore starter Jordan Lylesis coming off two consecutive starts in which he performed well but had nothing to show for it.
His high ERA in each start, which is a product of the unfortunately high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) masks a strong FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Today presents a great chance for him to succeed because he enjoys a 2.84 ERA in two career starts in Kansas City.
Kansas City starts Kris Bubic who is coming off a rare positive start.
He has yet to pitch well in consecutive starts this season.
Bubic merits pessimism because he still shows a marked tendency to yield hard contact at a high rate even against lineups that couldn't match up worse against him.
Best Bet: Orioles ML at -104 with FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Handicapper Analysis
Yankee starter Gerrit Cole is a model of consistency.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in eight straight starts.
Cole is a particularly strong candidate to succeed in Minnesota because, in his career in the Twins' venue, he is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA.
Minnesota counters with Dylan Bundy who Yankee batters are already familiar with because he used to pitch in their division as a member of Baltimore.
New York matches excellently against Bundy, ranking first in slugging against his favorite pitches -- the fastball, changeup, slider, and sinker -- from righties.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-1.5) at -122 with FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is red-hot right now, having won seven games in a row.
Their vastly higher slugging rate in June reflects their ability to adjust to life without former Brave star Freddie Freeman in the lineup.
Moreover, Ronald Acuna is sizzling.
It won't even take too much effort from Atlanta's lineup, going against winless Pirate starter JT Brubaker, since Max Fried is on the mound.
Fried has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
He promises to succeed against a Pirate lineup that hasn't scored more than three runs in any of its last four games.
Best Bet: Braves RL (-1.5) at -134 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox
Handicapper Analysis
The Dodgers start a lefty in Tyler Anderson whose record is inflated by the soft competition that he's faced.
He has rarely faced teams that are strong against left-handed pitching.
His biggest test, in this respect, so far was a Philadelphia team that amassed seven earned runs with him on the mound.
The White Sox will succeed today because they rank second in slugging against lefties and fourth in slugging against Anderson's favorite pitches from righties.
They counter with Dylan Cease who by various statistical measures is enjoying the best season of his career.
Dodger batters rank below-average against Cease's favorite from pitches, thus posing the sort of soft matchup that Cease has repeatedly proven equipped to master.
Best Bet: White Sox ML at -102 (FanDuel)
Handicapper Analysis
The Angels are favored tonight, and I find this ridiculous for two reasons.
One, the Angels can't figure out how to win right now.
Team rhythm is important because it permeates a team's effort in a given game.
The Angels are impossible to back because they are suffering a 14-game losing streak.
Two, they are favored because Shohei Ohtani enjoys strong public perception.
But Boston matches up excellently against him, ranking fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, coming off a pair of solid starts, will perpetuate the misery of L.A.'s lineup.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at +110 (FanDuel)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Handicapper Analysis
Baltimore starter Jordan Lylesis coming off two consecutive starts in which he performed well but had nothing to show for it.
His high ERA in each start, which is a product of the unfortunately high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) masks a strong FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Today presents a great chance for him to succeed because he enjoys a 2.84 ERA in two career starts in Kansas City.
Kansas City starts Kris Bubic who is coming off a rare positive start.
He has yet to pitch well in consecutive starts this season.
Bubic merits pessimism because he still shows a marked tendency to yield hard contact at a high rate even against lineups that couldn't match up worse against him.
Best Bet: Orioles ML at -104 with FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Handicapper Analysis
Yankee starter Gerrit Cole is a model of consistency.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in eight straight starts.
Cole is a particularly strong candidate to succeed in Minnesota because, in his career in the Twins' venue, he is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA.
Minnesota counters with Dylan Bundy who Yankee batters are already familiar with because he used to pitch in their division as a member of Baltimore.
New York matches excellently against Bundy, ranking first in slugging against his favorite pitches -- the fastball, changeup, slider, and sinker -- from righties.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-1.5) at -122 with FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is red-hot right now, having won seven games in a row.
Their vastly higher slugging rate in June reflects their ability to adjust to life without former Brave star Freddie Freeman in the lineup.
Moreover, Ronald Acuna is sizzling.
It won't even take too much effort from Atlanta's lineup, going against winless Pirate starter JT Brubaker, since Max Fried is on the mound.
Fried has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last three starts.
He promises to succeed against a Pirate lineup that hasn't scored more than three runs in any of its last four games.
Best Bet: Braves RL (-1.5) at -134 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox
Handicapper Analysis
The Dodgers start a lefty in Tyler Anderson whose record is inflated by the soft competition that he's faced.
He has rarely faced teams that are strong against left-handed pitching.
His biggest test, in this respect, so far was a Philadelphia team that amassed seven earned runs with him on the mound.
The White Sox will succeed today because they rank second in slugging against lefties and fourth in slugging against Anderson's favorite pitches from righties.
They counter with Dylan Cease who by various statistical measures is enjoying the best season of his career.
Dodger batters rank below-average against Cease's favorite from pitches, thus posing the sort of soft matchup that Cease has repeatedly proven equipped to master.
Best Bet: White Sox ML at -102 (FanDuel)
