New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper Analysis
The Yankees are hitting the ball consistently well right now.
They've scored five runs or more in five of their last six games.
In two of those five games, they scored 10 runs or more.
They'll thrive against Oriole starter Kyle Bradish.
Primarily, Bradish relies on a fastball-slider combo. These two pitches make up 80 percent of his arsenal.
Yankee hitters will flourish tonight because they're slugging 1.272 against these two pitches from righties.
Also expect Yankee starter Luis Severino to thrive against Baltimore because he primarily throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
The Orioles easily rank last-place in slugging .120 against these three pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-1.5) at -118 (FanDuel)
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper Analysis
The Blue Jays have endured a brutal schedule.
They had to go to Cleveland, then Yankee Stadium, then Tampa Bay.
Toronto will love returning home where its record is 10-6 even though it had to host the Astros and Yankees.
I like the Blue Jay lineup tonight because Mariner starter Chris Flexen is pitching poorly, having yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 6.50 in both of his last starts.
Moreover, Toronto ranks ninth in slugging against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Mariner batters will keep pace because theyare uniquely familiar with Blue Jay starter Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi spent three seasons in Seattle.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (FanDuel)
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Handicapper Analysis
Houston starter Jake Odorizzi promises to struggle tonight because Boston's ballpark is a house of horrors for him historically.
In his career, his ERA at Fenway Park is 6.18 after 11 starts.
Overall, Red Sox batters have generated a tremendous track record with Odorizzi on the mound.
In eight or more career at-bats against him, five different Red Sox hitters are slugging .550 or higher.
Xander Bogaerts, for example, slugs .600 in 35 career at-bats facing Odorizzi.
Astro batters will also thrive tonight because they face Garrett Whitlock, the Red Sox starter whose repertoire consists almost entirely in a sinker, slider, and changeup.
They rank second in slugging against these three pitches from righties.
Whitlock doesn't tend to last long in outings, so let's keep this a first-half bet.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 4.5 at -114 (FanDuel)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Handicapper Analysis
It might seem tempting to back the Cardinal lineup tonight after what it did to Giant starter Carlos Rodon.
But Rodon matched up poorly against the Cardinals' righty-heavy lineup because he is a lefty.
St. Louis faces a much tougher test tonight in Met starter Trevor Williams.
Williams is a righty who primarily throws a fastball, changeup, and slider.
He will do well tonight because the Cards rank 26thin slugging .313 against these three pitches from righties.
Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas will keep this game low-scoring.
Mikolas has yet to allow over two earned runs in a start this year.
Met batters will struggle tonight because they rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -105 (FanDuel)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Giant starter Alex Wood just faced the Rockies and did well against them.
But don't let recency bias fool you because that start took place in San Francisco and Rockie batters have been horrible outside of Colorado.
Whereas they average fewer than three runs away from home, they average over six at home.
I like Rockie batters to thrive especially tonight because Wood's career ERA is 8.50 in Denver.
Plus, he is a lefty and Colorado is, in terms of slugging rate, one of the best teams against lefties.
Rockie starter Antonio Senzatela will secure Colorado's lead because San Francisco ranks 21st against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rockies RL (+1.5) at -126 (FanDuel)
Handicapper Analysis
The Yankees are hitting the ball consistently well right now.
They've scored five runs or more in five of their last six games.
In two of those five games, they scored 10 runs or more.
They'll thrive against Oriole starter Kyle Bradish.
Primarily, Bradish relies on a fastball-slider combo. These two pitches make up 80 percent of his arsenal.
Yankee hitters will flourish tonight because they're slugging 1.272 against these two pitches from righties.
Also expect Yankee starter Luis Severino to thrive against Baltimore because he primarily throws a fastball, slider, and changeup.
The Orioles easily rank last-place in slugging .120 against these three pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-1.5) at -118 (FanDuel)
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper Analysis
The Blue Jays have endured a brutal schedule.
They had to go to Cleveland, then Yankee Stadium, then Tampa Bay.
Toronto will love returning home where its record is 10-6 even though it had to host the Astros and Yankees.
I like the Blue Jay lineup tonight because Mariner starter Chris Flexen is pitching poorly, having yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 6.50 in both of his last starts.
Moreover, Toronto ranks ninth in slugging against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Mariner batters will keep pace because theyare uniquely familiar with Blue Jay starter Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi spent three seasons in Seattle.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (FanDuel)
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Handicapper Analysis
Houston starter Jake Odorizzi promises to struggle tonight because Boston's ballpark is a house of horrors for him historically.
In his career, his ERA at Fenway Park is 6.18 after 11 starts.
Overall, Red Sox batters have generated a tremendous track record with Odorizzi on the mound.
In eight or more career at-bats against him, five different Red Sox hitters are slugging .550 or higher.
Xander Bogaerts, for example, slugs .600 in 35 career at-bats facing Odorizzi.
Astro batters will also thrive tonight because they face Garrett Whitlock, the Red Sox starter whose repertoire consists almost entirely in a sinker, slider, and changeup.
They rank second in slugging against these three pitches from righties.
Whitlock doesn't tend to last long in outings, so let's keep this a first-half bet.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 4.5 at -114 (FanDuel)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Handicapper Analysis
It might seem tempting to back the Cardinal lineup tonight after what it did to Giant starter Carlos Rodon.
But Rodon matched up poorly against the Cardinals' righty-heavy lineup because he is a lefty.
St. Louis faces a much tougher test tonight in Met starter Trevor Williams.
Williams is a righty who primarily throws a fastball, changeup, and slider.
He will do well tonight because the Cards rank 26thin slugging .313 against these three pitches from righties.
Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas will keep this game low-scoring.
Mikolas has yet to allow over two earned runs in a start this year.
Met batters will struggle tonight because they rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -105 (FanDuel)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Giant starter Alex Wood just faced the Rockies and did well against them.
But don't let recency bias fool you because that start took place in San Francisco and Rockie batters have been horrible outside of Colorado.
Whereas they average fewer than three runs away from home, they average over six at home.
I like Rockie batters to thrive especially tonight because Wood's career ERA is 8.50 in Denver.
Plus, he is a lefty and Colorado is, in terms of slugging rate, one of the best teams against lefties.
Rockie starter Antonio Senzatela will secure Colorado's lead because San Francisco ranks 21st against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Rockies RL (+1.5) at -126 (FanDuel)
