New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Handicapper Analysis
Met start Taijuan Walker is coming off a horrid start in Philadelphia where he allowed six earned runs in four innings.
I expect a similarly poor performance from him tonight because he is pitching in Washington D.C. and his career ERA in Nationals Park is 7.63 in three starts.
But I also dislike National starter Joan Adon because he has been getting rocked in terms of runs and hard contact no matter where he is pitching.
Most recently, he has allowed 12 runs in his past three starts combined.
Plus, the Mets rank seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Over 9 at +100 (FanDuel)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Handicapper Analysis
A variety of statistics indicate that Houston starter Luis Garcia will perform poorly tonight.
This variety is important because some of Garcia's individual statistics are insufficient by themselves because of a low data sample.
For example, he pitched once in Minnesota where he yielded a 6.23 ERA.
The fact that the Twins rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches suggests that he will struggle again in Minnesota.
As for Minnesota starter Josh Winder, he has faced one team -- Boston -- that ranks above average in slugging against his favorite pitches and he struggled in that game.
I dislike Winder tonight because Houston ranks sixth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -110 (FanDuel)
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Handicapper Analysis
Ranger starter Taylor Hearn is coming off somewhat of a tough-luck outing in which his 3.60 ERA masks a 2.52 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
He won't need much luck tonight because he is a lefty and the Royals can't hit lefties.
Specifically, Kansas City ranks 24thin slugging .308 against Hearn's three favorite pitches from lefties.
KC starter Jon Heasley will keep pace with Hearn.
Heasley's performances this year have hinged on matchup factors. He performed poorly against the teams that rank above-average against his pitches.
But he shut down a Tiger squad that doesn't hit his pitches well. The Rangers rank 27thin slugging against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -104 (FanDuel)
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Handicapper Analysis
The best argument against Yankee starter Luis Gil is that he can struggle with command.
However, it would be illogical to cite this struggle as a reason for disliking him tonight because the White Sox are one of the two or three worst teams in terms of plate discipline.
Plus, they rank 27thin slugging against Gil's two favorite pitches from righties.
Dylan Cease will keep this a low-scoring game because he is pitching at home where he has been lights-out every time this year.
Plus, Yankee bats have tended to struggle in series openers on the road where they have to adjust to the new ballpark that they're inhabiting.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -118 (FanDuel)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Handicapper Analysis
Philly starter Zack Wheeler promises to struggle in Los Angeles tonight because he suffers a 6.00 ERA in Dodger stadium where he has made three starts in his career.
Plus, sundry Dodger batters have produced a strong track record over the course of many at-bats against Wheeler.
Freddie Freeman, for example, slugs .646 in 48 career at-bats against Wheeler.
Philadelphia hitters will keep pace with the Dodgers because they match up well against Dodger starter Tyler Anderson who is a lefty.
The Phillies rank second in slugging against Anderson's favorite pitches -- the fastball, cutter, and changeup -- from lefties.
Best Bet: Over 8 at -104 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
Met start Taijuan Walker is coming off a horrid start in Philadelphia where he allowed six earned runs in four innings.
I expect a similarly poor performance from him tonight because he is pitching in Washington D.C. and his career ERA in Nationals Park is 7.63 in three starts.
But I also dislike National starter Joan Adon because he has been getting rocked in terms of runs and hard contact no matter where he is pitching.
Most recently, he has allowed 12 runs in his past three starts combined.
Plus, the Mets rank seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Over 9 at +100 (FanDuel)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Handicapper Analysis
A variety of statistics indicate that Houston starter Luis Garcia will perform poorly tonight.
This variety is important because some of Garcia's individual statistics are insufficient by themselves because of a low data sample.
For example, he pitched once in Minnesota where he yielded a 6.23 ERA.
The fact that the Twins rank eighth in slugging against his favorite pitches suggests that he will struggle again in Minnesota.
As for Minnesota starter Josh Winder, he has faced one team -- Boston -- that ranks above average in slugging against his favorite pitches and he struggled in that game.
I dislike Winder tonight because Houston ranks sixth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -110 (FanDuel)
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Handicapper Analysis
Ranger starter Taylor Hearn is coming off somewhat of a tough-luck outing in which his 3.60 ERA masks a 2.52 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
He won't need much luck tonight because he is a lefty and the Royals can't hit lefties.
Specifically, Kansas City ranks 24thin slugging .308 against Hearn's three favorite pitches from lefties.
KC starter Jon Heasley will keep pace with Hearn.
Heasley's performances this year have hinged on matchup factors. He performed poorly against the teams that rank above-average against his pitches.
But he shut down a Tiger squad that doesn't hit his pitches well. The Rangers rank 27thin slugging against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -104 (FanDuel)
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Handicapper Analysis
The best argument against Yankee starter Luis Gil is that he can struggle with command.
However, it would be illogical to cite this struggle as a reason for disliking him tonight because the White Sox are one of the two or three worst teams in terms of plate discipline.
Plus, they rank 27thin slugging against Gil's two favorite pitches from righties.
Dylan Cease will keep this a low-scoring game because he is pitching at home where he has been lights-out every time this year.
Plus, Yankee bats have tended to struggle in series openers on the road where they have to adjust to the new ballpark that they're inhabiting.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -118 (FanDuel)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Handicapper Analysis
Philly starter Zack Wheeler promises to struggle in Los Angeles tonight because he suffers a 6.00 ERA in Dodger stadium where he has made three starts in his career.
Plus, sundry Dodger batters have produced a strong track record over the course of many at-bats against Wheeler.
Freddie Freeman, for example, slugs .646 in 48 career at-bats against Wheeler.
Philadelphia hitters will keep pace with the Dodgers because they match up well against Dodger starter Tyler Anderson who is a lefty.
The Phillies rank second in slugging against Anderson's favorite pitches -- the fastball, cutter, and changeup -- from lefties.
Best Bet: Over 8 at -104 with FanDuel
