Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Handicapper Analysis
Cardinal starter Steven Matz's 2.03 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) indicates that he is performing very well, despite what his ERA says.
His ERA is as high as it is because he is yielding an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), but his BABIP will positively drop.
He is inducing a lot of soft contact while striking batters out and preventing the long ball at career-best rates.
Matz will thrive today because he's a lefty and the Royals rank 27thin slugging .290 against lefties.
Zack Greinke, meanwhile, will continue being a great pitcher against a Cardinal lineup that is anemic against righties.
Best Bet: First Half Under 3.5 at +104 (FanDuel)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Handicapper Analysis
White Sox pitcher Dylan Ceasethrows primarily a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches combine to make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
In Cease's three solid games, he was facing teams that ranked outside the top 10 in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Meanwhile, he struggled against a Guardian squad that ranks first in this category.I like the Angels today because they rank third.
The White Sox will add runs, going up against a lefty.
They caught fire at the end of their last game and they look especially promising today because they rank second in slugging against lefties.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 at -120 (FanDuel)
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper Analysis
The Twins are a hot team that you should look to back right now.They've won nine of their last 10 games.
Moreover, they're hitting really well and doing so with consistency. They've scored five runs or more in seven of their past eight games.
Twin starter Chris Paddack is exciting to back because his 3.68 ERA masks a 1.69 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Whereas Baltimore ranks 24thin slugging against Paddack's top pitches, Twin batters will dominate today because they face an extreme fly-ball pitcher in Baltimore's Tyler Wells.
In terms of slugging rate (.437), the Twins dominate fly-ball pitchers.
Best Bet: Twins RL at -104 (FanDuel)
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Handicapper Analysis
Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is pitching today in one of his least favorite ballparks if Houston's Minute Maid Park isn't his absolute least favorite.
In his career, Gonzales is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in Houston.
Plenty of Astro batters have built superb track records against him.
Seven different ones slug over .300 in at least eight career at-bats with Gonzales on the mound.
Mariner hitters will also score a lot of runs, going against Houston starter Jake Odorizzi who has been consistently unreliable on the mound this year.
Odorizzi is primarily a fastball pitcher and the Mariners rank fourth in slugging .524 against this pitch from righties.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -115 (FanDuel)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper Analysis
Toronto is a vastly different team, hitting-wise, at home.
The Blue Jays match up well with Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery because he is a lefty and they rank sixth in slugging at home against lefties.
They also do well against his pitches at home.
Look out for Bo Bichette, who slugs 1.375 in eight career at-bats against Montgomery.
The Yanks will add runs as they continue to be hot. They've scored 10 runs or more in four of their past seven games and five or more in six of their past eight.
They match up well against Toronto starter Ross Stripling's pitches.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -105 (FanDuel)
Handicapper Analysis
Cardinal starter Steven Matz's 2.03 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) indicates that he is performing very well, despite what his ERA says.
His ERA is as high as it is because he is yielding an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), but his BABIP will positively drop.
He is inducing a lot of soft contact while striking batters out and preventing the long ball at career-best rates.
Matz will thrive today because he's a lefty and the Royals rank 27thin slugging .290 against lefties.
Zack Greinke, meanwhile, will continue being a great pitcher against a Cardinal lineup that is anemic against righties.
Best Bet: First Half Under 3.5 at +104 (FanDuel)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Handicapper Analysis
White Sox pitcher Dylan Ceasethrows primarily a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches combine to make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
In Cease's three solid games, he was facing teams that ranked outside the top 10 in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Meanwhile, he struggled against a Guardian squad that ranks first in this category.I like the Angels today because they rank third.
The White Sox will add runs, going up against a lefty.
They caught fire at the end of their last game and they look especially promising today because they rank second in slugging against lefties.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 at -120 (FanDuel)
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Handicapper Analysis
The Twins are a hot team that you should look to back right now.They've won nine of their last 10 games.
Moreover, they're hitting really well and doing so with consistency. They've scored five runs or more in seven of their past eight games.
Twin starter Chris Paddack is exciting to back because his 3.68 ERA masks a 1.69 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Whereas Baltimore ranks 24thin slugging against Paddack's top pitches, Twin batters will dominate today because they face an extreme fly-ball pitcher in Baltimore's Tyler Wells.
In terms of slugging rate (.437), the Twins dominate fly-ball pitchers.
Best Bet: Twins RL at -104 (FanDuel)
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Handicapper Analysis
Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is pitching today in one of his least favorite ballparks if Houston's Minute Maid Park isn't his absolute least favorite.
In his career, Gonzales is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in Houston.
Plenty of Astro batters have built superb track records against him.
Seven different ones slug over .300 in at least eight career at-bats with Gonzales on the mound.
Mariner hitters will also score a lot of runs, going against Houston starter Jake Odorizzi who has been consistently unreliable on the mound this year.
Odorizzi is primarily a fastball pitcher and the Mariners rank fourth in slugging .524 against this pitch from righties.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -115 (FanDuel)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper Analysis
Toronto is a vastly different team, hitting-wise, at home.
The Blue Jays match up well with Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery because he is a lefty and they rank sixth in slugging at home against lefties.
They also do well against his pitches at home.
Look out for Bo Bichette, who slugs 1.375 in eight career at-bats against Montgomery.
The Yanks will add runs as they continue to be hot. They've scored 10 runs or more in four of their past seven games and five or more in six of their past eight.
They match up well against Toronto starter Ross Stripling's pitches.
Best Bet: Over 8.5 at -105 (FanDuel)
