Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Handicapper Analysis
The Phillies are losers in a lot of ways this year except for one: they are yielding +1 units against left-handed starting pitchers.
The fact that their success against southpaws is such an exception shows how meaningful facing left-handed pitchers is to them.
They rank third in slugging against lefty pitchers. Righty Nick Castellanos, for example, slugs .615 against them.
Yearly, the Rockies are typically fade-worthy outside of Colorado.
Today presents no exception as they are slugging .314 outside of Colorado against Philly starter Kyle Gibson's top pitches, the sinker, cutter, and slider from righties.
Best Bet: Phillies RL (-1.5) at +102 with FanDuel
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper Analysis
It is true that Boston's Nathan Eovaldi just pitched well against Toronto.
But take a look at how often this situation happens -- where the starting pitcher faces the same team twice in a row -- and see how frequently the outcome changes from one game to the next.
I dislike Eovaldi today intensely because he is pitching in Toronto. He is 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA in three career starts in Toronto's Rogers Centre.
Eovaldi should expect minimal support because of how cold Boston's hitting is.
The Red Sox have exceeded three runs once in their past seven games. In that one exception, they scored four runs.
Plus, they rank below average in slugging against Toronto starter Jose Berrios' top pitches.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at -142 with FanDuel
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Handicapper Analysis
Since a mediocre opening start against his former team, Met starter Max Scherzer has been nothing short of Max Scherzer.
He's allowed two earned runs in a combined total of 12 innings.
Scherz is in a great spot to continue his strong form because he yields a 2.04 career ERA in six starts in St. Louis.
You should also trust Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas today. He's been looking sharp and his velocity has been at its best.
He'll continue his strong form today against a group of batters who he has accumulated solid success against.
Out of the eight Met batters who have at least three career at-bats against him, only one is batting above .156.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 at +100 with FanDuel
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Handicapper Analysis
Cleveland finds itself in a terrible situation today.
It's not simply a matter of being mired in a three-game losing streak during which they mustered a total of seven runs.
But the Guardians last played yesterday in New York. Today, without a rest day, they have to play in Los Angeles.
This is a lot of travel in almost no time. Expect fatigue and wear to prevent Cleveland hitters from finding any success against a guy with some good swing-and-miss stuff in Angel starter Michael Lorenzen.
Also expect Guardian starter Shane Bieber to continue thriving. He's yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in all his starts this year.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -108 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers aren't favored more heavily because they are on the road.
But being in Arizona is a good thing for them today.
Their starting pitcher, for example, loves playing in Arizona.
Walker Buehler owns a 2-0 record with a 2.63 ERA in four career starts in Chase Field.
He'll get a lot of support against a pitcher in Diamondback Merrill Kelly whom Dodger batters thrive against.
Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts, for example, both slug well over .800 in their career against him.
Max Muncy hits .444 and slugs .667 against him.
These guys are producing these numbers in over 10 career at-bats with Kelly on the mound.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (-1.5) at -118 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
The Phillies are losers in a lot of ways this year except for one: they are yielding +1 units against left-handed starting pitchers.
The fact that their success against southpaws is such an exception shows how meaningful facing left-handed pitchers is to them.
They rank third in slugging against lefty pitchers. Righty Nick Castellanos, for example, slugs .615 against them.
Yearly, the Rockies are typically fade-worthy outside of Colorado.
Today presents no exception as they are slugging .314 outside of Colorado against Philly starter Kyle Gibson's top pitches, the sinker, cutter, and slider from righties.
Best Bet: Phillies RL (-1.5) at +102 with FanDuel
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Handicapper Analysis
It is true that Boston's Nathan Eovaldi just pitched well against Toronto.
But take a look at how often this situation happens -- where the starting pitcher faces the same team twice in a row -- and see how frequently the outcome changes from one game to the next.
I dislike Eovaldi today intensely because he is pitching in Toronto. He is 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA in three career starts in Toronto's Rogers Centre.
Eovaldi should expect minimal support because of how cold Boston's hitting is.
The Red Sox have exceeded three runs once in their past seven games. In that one exception, they scored four runs.
Plus, they rank below average in slugging against Toronto starter Jose Berrios' top pitches.
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML at -142 with FanDuel
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Handicapper Analysis
Since a mediocre opening start against his former team, Met starter Max Scherzer has been nothing short of Max Scherzer.
He's allowed two earned runs in a combined total of 12 innings.
Scherz is in a great spot to continue his strong form because he yields a 2.04 career ERA in six starts in St. Louis.
You should also trust Cardinal starter Miles Mikolas today. He's been looking sharp and his velocity has been at its best.
He'll continue his strong form today against a group of batters who he has accumulated solid success against.
Out of the eight Met batters who have at least three career at-bats against him, only one is batting above .156.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 at +100 with FanDuel
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Handicapper Analysis
Cleveland finds itself in a terrible situation today.
It's not simply a matter of being mired in a three-game losing streak during which they mustered a total of seven runs.
But the Guardians last played yesterday in New York. Today, without a rest day, they have to play in Los Angeles.
This is a lot of travel in almost no time. Expect fatigue and wear to prevent Cleveland hitters from finding any success against a guy with some good swing-and-miss stuff in Angel starter Michael Lorenzen.
Also expect Guardian starter Shane Bieber to continue thriving. He's yielded a sub-three FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in all his starts this year.
Best Bet: Under 8 at -108 with FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Dodgers aren't favored more heavily because they are on the road.
But being in Arizona is a good thing for them today.
Their starting pitcher, for example, loves playing in Arizona.
Walker Buehler owns a 2-0 record with a 2.63 ERA in four career starts in Chase Field.
He'll get a lot of support against a pitcher in Diamondback Merrill Kelly whom Dodger batters thrive against.
Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts, for example, both slug well over .800 in their career against him.
Max Muncy hits .444 and slugs .667 against him.
These guys are producing these numbers in over 10 career at-bats with Kelly on the mound.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (-1.5) at -118 with FanDuel
