Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Handicapper Analysis
One reason why this game will be low-scoring is that the Nationals are facing Arizona starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner.
Bumgarner matches up well against the Nationals because he is left-handed. The Nats rank 28thin slugging against lefty pitchers.
His match-up edge is supported by his strong history against National batters. He has done well against all of them besides Maikel Franco who is anyhow cold at the moment despite having gone up against Pirate pitching.
National starter Josiah Gray will keep this game low-scoring with his favored combination of fastball, curveball, and slider.
Arizona ranks 29thin slugging against these three pitches from righties combined.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -112 (FanDuel)
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Handicapper Analysis
White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel is not going to wow opponents with his stuff or velocity.
As evident in the 5.28 ERA that he yielded last year, there is not much Keuchel can accomplish at this point in his career.
He may still be worthwhile against bottom-feeder lineups, against teams that struggle to hit lefties.
But Cleveland is absolutely not one of those teams.
The Guardians rank sixth in slugging against Keuchel's three favorite pitches, the cutter, sinker, and changeup, from lefties.
Cleveland's starting pitcher, unlike Keuchel, is a young guy in Triston McKenzie who enjoys solid upside.
McKenzie's velocity is up, his control continues to be better, and his pitches are increasingly hard to make contact with.
Best Bet: Guardians ML at -112 with FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Handicapper Analysis
Pittsburgh might seem like a good team to back today because the Pirates rank eighth in slugging against lefties and the Brewers are starting a left-handed pitcher.
But we have to practice some scrutiny here.
The Pirates rank as highly as they do against left-handed pitching primarily because of their single performance against Cardinal starter Steven Matz.
While Matz did allow a ton of runs, metrics suggest that he actually performed quite well. His xFIP, for example, was 1.22.
Eric Lauer for Milwaukee is already likable due to the velocity bump he is experiencing.
Pittsburgh's lineup is performing well now, but it has been playing at home. Now it has to travel.
I rather like Milwaukee's lineup because the Brewers rank sixth in slugging against Pirate starter Zach Thompson's two favorite pitches, the sinker and cutter, from righties combined.
Best Bet: Brewers RL at -1.5 at +112 with FanDuel
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
The Cub lineup is in a strong spot today because it ranks seventh in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Chicago will do damage to left-handed Ray starter Shane McClanahan at home where its lineup already performed well against Milwaukee.
Cub starter Kyle Hendricks is, likewise, typically much stronger at home.
He is coming off a bad start, but that took place on the road. His career home ERA is 2.93 compared to 3.87 on the road.
Hendricks enjoys a strong matchup today because the Rays rank 28thin slugging against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, change-up, and fastball, from righties outside of Tampa Bay
Best Bet: Cubs ML at +130 with FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Handicapper Analysis
We have a battle here between left-handed pitchers: Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo and San Diego's Sean Manaea.
Lodolo is trying to find his footing in professional baseball.
In his first career start, he struggled for control and was hit very hard. He allowed five runs in four innings.
Manaea is on another level than Lodolo. A proven commodity, Manaea has allowed two earned runs in 13 combined innings so far.
Plus, the Padres enjoy a matchup advantage because they are way better at hitting lefties than the Reds are.
To be exact, San Diego ranks 17 spots higher than Cincinnati in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: Padres RL at +126 with FanDuel
Handicapper Analysis
One reason why this game will be low-scoring is that the Nationals are facing Arizona starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner.
Bumgarner matches up well against the Nationals because he is left-handed. The Nats rank 28thin slugging against lefty pitchers.
His match-up edge is supported by his strong history against National batters. He has done well against all of them besides Maikel Franco who is anyhow cold at the moment despite having gone up against Pirate pitching.
National starter Josiah Gray will keep this game low-scoring with his favored combination of fastball, curveball, and slider.
Arizona ranks 29thin slugging against these three pitches from righties combined.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -112 (FanDuel)
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Handicapper Analysis
White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel is not going to wow opponents with his stuff or velocity.
As evident in the 5.28 ERA that he yielded last year, there is not much Keuchel can accomplish at this point in his career.
He may still be worthwhile against bottom-feeder lineups, against teams that struggle to hit lefties.
But Cleveland is absolutely not one of those teams.
The Guardians rank sixth in slugging against Keuchel's three favorite pitches, the cutter, sinker, and changeup, from lefties.
Cleveland's starting pitcher, unlike Keuchel, is a young guy in Triston McKenzie who enjoys solid upside.
McKenzie's velocity is up, his control continues to be better, and his pitches are increasingly hard to make contact with.
Best Bet: Guardians ML at -112 with FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Handicapper Analysis
Pittsburgh might seem like a good team to back today because the Pirates rank eighth in slugging against lefties and the Brewers are starting a left-handed pitcher.
But we have to practice some scrutiny here.
The Pirates rank as highly as they do against left-handed pitching primarily because of their single performance against Cardinal starter Steven Matz.
While Matz did allow a ton of runs, metrics suggest that he actually performed quite well. His xFIP, for example, was 1.22.
Eric Lauer for Milwaukee is already likable due to the velocity bump he is experiencing.
Pittsburgh's lineup is performing well now, but it has been playing at home. Now it has to travel.
I rather like Milwaukee's lineup because the Brewers rank sixth in slugging against Pirate starter Zach Thompson's two favorite pitches, the sinker and cutter, from righties combined.
Best Bet: Brewers RL at -1.5 at +112 with FanDuel
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs
Handicapper Analysis
The Cub lineup is in a strong spot today because it ranks seventh in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Chicago will do damage to left-handed Ray starter Shane McClanahan at home where its lineup already performed well against Milwaukee.
Cub starter Kyle Hendricks is, likewise, typically much stronger at home.
He is coming off a bad start, but that took place on the road. His career home ERA is 2.93 compared to 3.87 on the road.
Hendricks enjoys a strong matchup today because the Rays rank 28thin slugging against his three favorite pitches, the sinker, change-up, and fastball, from righties outside of Tampa Bay
Best Bet: Cubs ML at +130 with FanDuel
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Handicapper Analysis
We have a battle here between left-handed pitchers: Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo and San Diego's Sean Manaea.
Lodolo is trying to find his footing in professional baseball.
In his first career start, he struggled for control and was hit very hard. He allowed five runs in four innings.
Manaea is on another level than Lodolo. A proven commodity, Manaea has allowed two earned runs in 13 combined innings so far.
Plus, the Padres enjoy a matchup advantage because they are way better at hitting lefties than the Reds are.
To be exact, San Diego ranks 17 spots higher than Cincinnati in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Best Bet: Padres RL at +126 with FanDuel
