Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Toronto starting pitcher Alek Manoah looks ready to have another strong year after he went through Spring Training allowing one earned run in 14 innings.
His numbers in Yankee Stadium were solid: his ERA there was 2.31 in two starts.
Yankee starter Jameson Taillon was also effective against Toronto albeit only in Yankee Stadium.
Both pitchers are in a great situation because of the weather. It is slated to be right around 49 or 50 degrees in the Bronx when the first pitch is thrown.
Cold weather is a classic early-season factor that is bad for offense.
Best Bet: Under 9.5 at -122 (FanDuel)
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
I think that one of the worst things you could do is rely too heavily on last year's stats.
If you take a step back, you'll see a lot of statistical flux from one year to the next.
Since last year was the most recent year, I get that it might seem scary to trust Minnesota starter Dylan Bundy.
But even during that terrible year last year he was relatively strong at the beginning of the season. He has been strong at the start of seasons.
I think he'll have another strong start this year given how sharp he looked in Spring Training which he finished with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings.
Seattle starter Chris Flexen, though, got knocked out in Spring Training road games just like he did in his only start in Minnesota last year.
Best Bet: Twins ML at -134 (FanDuel)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Giant starter Alex Wood is another guy who typically enjoys a strong start to the season.
His career FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is lowest in March/April.
The data sample is small, but no Padre in 37 career at-bats has managed an extra-base hit off him.
Wood, too, is coming off his best Spring Training performance in years.
Padre starter Nick Martinez also put together an impressive Spring Training with some attractive strikeout totals.
Giant batters can expect a different Martinez than the one who had last pitched in an MLB regular season game in 2017.
While in Japan, he improved his velocity, his pitching repertoire, and his control.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -114 (FanDuel
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Boston starter Michael Wacha is typically a guy who starts a season strongly.
His career FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is at its best in March/April games.
Unlike Wacha, the Tiger lineup has been struggling to get going this season.
After three games, Tiger batters have combined for one run through the first five innings.
Tiger starter Matt Manning might seem worth fading given his stats last year.
But don't forget how highly rated he was as a prospect and the great combo of strikeouts and walks that he flexed in Triple A.
His entrance into the majors was premature as it was precipitated by a host of injuries to Tiger pitchers.
Manning already looked better in Spring Training (3.65 ERA in four games).
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5.5 at -152 (FanDuel)
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Park factors from last year show that Texas' home ballpark is rather pitcher-friendly ballpark.
This gives Colorado a disadvantage because the Rockies are coming directly from their home ballpark which is notoriously hitter-friendly. They'll have to adjust.
Both teams are also disadvantaged by the fact that they are facing left-handed starting pitchers.
Texas' top hitters concern me today. Corey Seager, for example, is a lefty.
As one would expect, Seager's career BA and slugging rates are way lower when facing a same-handed pitcher.
Now, I don't care much for either team's bullpen. A lot can go wrong, in terms of allowing runs, when the starters leave this game.
But we can avoid this worry by sticking to a first-half play.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5.5 at -130 (FanDuel)
Toronto starting pitcher Alek Manoah looks ready to have another strong year after he went through Spring Training allowing one earned run in 14 innings.
His numbers in Yankee Stadium were solid: his ERA there was 2.31 in two starts.
Yankee starter Jameson Taillon was also effective against Toronto albeit only in Yankee Stadium.
Both pitchers are in a great situation because of the weather. It is slated to be right around 49 or 50 degrees in the Bronx when the first pitch is thrown.
Cold weather is a classic early-season factor that is bad for offense.
Best Bet: Under 9.5 at -122 (FanDuel)
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
I think that one of the worst things you could do is rely too heavily on last year's stats.
If you take a step back, you'll see a lot of statistical flux from one year to the next.
Since last year was the most recent year, I get that it might seem scary to trust Minnesota starter Dylan Bundy.
But even during that terrible year last year he was relatively strong at the beginning of the season. He has been strong at the start of seasons.
I think he'll have another strong start this year given how sharp he looked in Spring Training which he finished with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings.
Seattle starter Chris Flexen, though, got knocked out in Spring Training road games just like he did in his only start in Minnesota last year.
Best Bet: Twins ML at -134 (FanDuel)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Giant starter Alex Wood is another guy who typically enjoys a strong start to the season.
His career FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is lowest in March/April.
The data sample is small, but no Padre in 37 career at-bats has managed an extra-base hit off him.
Wood, too, is coming off his best Spring Training performance in years.
Padre starter Nick Martinez also put together an impressive Spring Training with some attractive strikeout totals.
Giant batters can expect a different Martinez than the one who had last pitched in an MLB regular season game in 2017.
While in Japan, he improved his velocity, his pitching repertoire, and his control.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -114 (FanDuel
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Boston starter Michael Wacha is typically a guy who starts a season strongly.
His career FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is at its best in March/April games.
Unlike Wacha, the Tiger lineup has been struggling to get going this season.
After three games, Tiger batters have combined for one run through the first five innings.
Tiger starter Matt Manning might seem worth fading given his stats last year.
But don't forget how highly rated he was as a prospect and the great combo of strikeouts and walks that he flexed in Triple A.
His entrance into the majors was premature as it was precipitated by a host of injuries to Tiger pitchers.
Manning already looked better in Spring Training (3.65 ERA in four games).
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5.5 at -152 (FanDuel)
Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers
Park factors from last year show that Texas' home ballpark is rather pitcher-friendly ballpark.
This gives Colorado a disadvantage because the Rockies are coming directly from their home ballpark which is notoriously hitter-friendly. They'll have to adjust.
Both teams are also disadvantaged by the fact that they are facing left-handed starting pitchers.
Texas' top hitters concern me today. Corey Seager, for example, is a lefty.
As one would expect, Seager's career BA and slugging rates are way lower when facing a same-handed pitcher.
Now, I don't care much for either team's bullpen. A lot can go wrong, in terms of allowing runs, when the starters leave this game.
But we can avoid this worry by sticking to a first-half play.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5.5 at -130 (FanDuel)
