Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins
Handicapper Analysis:
It surprises me that oddsmakers have these teams lined as if they were nearly even.
The Marlins are hardly more favored despite this game taking place in Miami.
It is true that Texas ranks much more highly than Miami in runs per game.
But consider the easy opponents that Texas has faced in its high-scoring games.
For example, the Rangers last scored double digits in a game when they faced Oakland starter Adrian Martinez who is now pitching in Triple A.
While the lineups are rather more even in quality than the odds seem to suggest, the starting pitcher matchup clearly favors Miami.
Marlin starter Pablo Lopez enjoys a clear advantage over his Ranger counterpart Jon Gray in terms of ERA off six days' of rest and in terms of how the opposing lineup hits his favorite pitches.
Best Bet: Marlins ML at -112 with FanDuel
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins
Handicapper Analysis
Ranger starter Jon Gray is in a relatively good spot for himself because, in terms of ERA, he is at his best when pitching after six or more days of rest.
Plus, he matches up well against Miami.
Primarily, Gray throws a fastball and slider.
The Marlins rank below-average in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Marlin starter Pablo Lopez is easily at his best when pitching off six or more days' of rest.
Plus, he matches up even more strongly against his opponent than Gray does.
Lopez's favorite pitches, in terms of frequency, are his fastball and changeup.
The Rangers rank 23rdin slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Under 7 at -118 with FanDuel
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics (Game 1)
Handicapper Analysis
Tiger starter Tarik Skubal is somebody who you may have stopped counting on.
True, he suffered quite the rough patch, struggling time and time again to perform well.
ButSkubal has overcome his rough form, yielding a sub-3.60 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three of his past four starts.
He promises to do well tonight because he is at his best off six or more days' of rest, and Oakland ranks 28thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
This game will be low-scoring also because Oakland starter Zach Logue had his best start of the season against Detroit.
He matches up excellently against the Tigers given their slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 at -124 with FanDuel
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics (Game 2)
Handicapper Analysis:
Tiger starter Garrett Hill does not seem ready for professional baseball.
Recalled from the minors, he is only starting tonight's game out of necessity.
His tendency to leave pitches in the middle parts of the plate, his lackluster velocity, and his lack of spin explain why even a White Sox team that normally struggles against righties was able to beat him up.
While the A's will score plenty of runs, continuing their strong finish to the first half of the season hitting-wise, Detroit's lineup will also contribute meaningfully to the scoring.
Oakland starter Frankie Montas is in a bad spot because he hasn't started in almost three weeks.
With his ERA at its worst off six or more days of rest, he will be rusty.
Best Bet: Over 7 at -105 with FanDuel
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics (Game 2)
Handicapper Analysis:
Oakland's lineup has earned a negative reputation because it lost many hitters that had helped make it strong in recent years.
But the Athletic lineup enjoyed a strong finish to the first half of the regular season, scoring eight, four, and six runs in three respective games against Houston.
Athletic batters are primed to thrive against a Tiger pitcher, Garrett Hill, whose lack of velocity and spin and consistently bad location made him mincemeat even for a White Sox team that normally struggles against righties.
Conversely, Oakland starter Frankie Montas is obviously professionally-ready and proven, and he couldn't be facing an easier test.
Best Bet: Athletics RL (-1.5) at +140 with FanDuel
