First round NBA bets

divol

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
Will post regular season record here later...


Will try to post more often during the playoffs...

Utah - Oklahoma

RW is my favorite player in the league, so don't know if I'm objective tonight, but this one feels like a close one, 50-50 game. Snyder really got Thunder offense figured out and it's on Westbrook to prove him wrong. But I do feel that Utah can be stopped on offense. Mitchell is still a rookie and Rubio still a shaky shooter (though one of my favorite players).
Overall, Game 3 felt like the best punch Utah can give and now it's on Thunder to respond.
RW needs to be more effective off the ball and I do expect Melo or PG13 to show up.
Thunder +4.5, 2.00 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everyone!
 
Wish I could just tail you but I’m going to have to watch the game a bit to see if Westbrook is keeping his promise to shut Rubio down. I’m a little skeptical at this point because since day one this season I have seen the Thunder get worse at the end of tight games (when teams like the Spurs, the Celtics and the Warriors all seem to get better). I spent all season waiting for the big 3 to gel to where the Thunder would step it up at the end of games but now I am resigned to the idea that if they aren’t already ahead with a couple of minutes to go, things aren’t going to get any better before the game ends (especially when playing against a playoff-level team). They might have a problem where Russell has to own the ball at the end of games, but this just isn’t his year. Paul George seems to out-perform Westbrook in these situations, but by default Westbrook is supposed to be the guy taking over.

But regardless, hope your 7 units turns into 14 units...
 
Thanks for posting Divol.

Definitely a hornets nest playing in Delta Center (er... Jazz Stadium).

Really looking forward to this one.
 
Thunder offense just can't find itself against Jazz defense...
Billy D and RW need to come up with something different or it will be over soon...
Play lost...
 
Okc showed up until Russ picked up his 4th. Game was over after that. I do expect them to win game 5 at home tho. They gotta stop having Melo shoot 3s. Get him in the post. He’s got no rhythm in that offense as a 3 point catch and shoot guy
 
Yeah, the offense is stagnant with Melo and Westbrook hardly moving off the ball...
 
Golden State Warriors - San Antonio Spurs

Was watching some moments of Game 4 and had a feeling that was a game that Spurs wanted to win at least one game (and at home) and that GSW just didn't have the needed energy against it. LMA stealing ball at half court, Manu shooting and so on... Maybe it was Manu's last game in front of his home crowd and he didn't want to retire with a loss in front of his fans...
Tonight's game should be a game that closes the series. Don't see Spurs putting up a fight, if GSW build a nice lead here.
Hate big spreads, but this time, should be an easy blowout.
GSW -11, 1.95 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Few thoughts on other games:
Sixers clearly the better team, but I'm certain that Heat won't quit. Not their mentality - players, coach, D-Wade - all should believe in themselves and will try to bring it home to Miami and force Game 7...
Very clear lean to the Heat. The problem is that Sixers also well coached, play well on both sides of the court, but much better talent wise... Match ups wise, Sixers have huge advantange.
Still... close out game, at home, for the young guys... can go either way... lean Heat, but probably stay clear (also because two of the three losses were blowouts).

The line in Boston is perfect in my eyes. Bucks are better team, Boston are at home and better coached. No way Boston are clear favorites, but at home, they should be favorites and the line reflects it. Have really zero idea what's going to happen in this game. Gut feeling is that Boston win in a tight game - as the line suggests...

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
What you said. Thanks for your post. During live the Celtics are a good bet if they are behind but not out of reach in the closing minutes of the game. Heat/Seventysixers perhaps can be predicted live by the scoring — if the Heat try to score with the Seventysixers then they seem to run out of gas in the second half. If the Heat find a way to slow the Seventysixers down to the Heat’s own level of scoring, the Heat might have a shot...
 
Another day, another loss... 0 - 2 so far this post season :(
No bets for tonight, but quick thoughts:

Toronto - Washington

Wizards won both home games and should be with the momentum, but it was hero ball that got them the wins, while Raps do appear to be much deeper and ready to finally maybe get to the NBA Finals. I like the Wizards, always had and still think their starting unit is one of the best in the league...
Very tough call for me. Small lean to the Raps, especially since Wizards on the road are pretty bad, but hope Wiz win this one.

Cleveland - Indiana

Guess I'm not that smart to cap this series. Have zero idea what will happen. Don't know Bron's frame of mind, don't know what Pacers actually worth. In the beginning of the season, was sure they are lottery team - they proved to be much more capable.
Hard to believe that Cleveland will give up this series now, but trying to bet on Cleveland... usually not a good idea, especially with spread involved as well...
Easy skip...

Oklahoma City - Utah

Obviously still lean the Thunder, but till they can figure our their offense, no way I'm going near this bet... Game 6 means so much sense here, but who knows what goes on in Thunder players minds right now... How Billy D will respond and so on...
Utah will take anything Thunder will give them and for now, Thunder just can't find the answer...
RW needs to stop gamble on defense, it just breaks Thunder defense and Melo really needs to get involved in the series on both ends of the floor or stop getting minutes and let some young athlete get his minutes (like Ferguson and Grant)...
Skip with a heavy heart...

Houston - Minnesota

The feeling, like in Oakland last night, that the road team got their win and tonight will be a closure. Houston smells blood and will go for the kill I believe. On the other hand though... hate big lines and yesterday was another great example why...
Skip...

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
Still thinking about the bets, but wanted to give my thoughts on tonight's games:

Indiana - Cleveland

This was a great series that can end tonight. Even if Cleveland win tonight, it was very tough series for them and the biggest margin in the last 4 games between them, was 4 points... Cleveland won their three wins by 3, 4 and 3 points... Btw, Pacers had great percentage in close games in regular season, but it's not regular season.
If it will be a close game, the right money should be on the team that has more experience and has the best player on the court and it's no doubt LeBron.
I root for the Pacers and the close games give the feeling of 50 - 50 game, but in the end... the feeling is that it's 50 - 50 game that Cleveland somehow has more than 50% chance of winning :)
Cleveland or nothing for me here.

Washington - Toronto

Not really sure, why in a series, in which no team have yet lost at home, Wizards are going as home dogs... Porter is a big loss, but still...
Toronto still has 18.5% SU percentage on the road in the playoffs and 0 - 4 SU in Washington.
Toronto needs to prove they got what it takes to close out series on the road.
Lean Wizards, probably a skip, since Wizards are hard to rely on...

Utah - Oklahoma

Not really sure why Thunder are getting 6.5 points here. Huge comeback win should put the momentum in their corner, after three straight losses and finally Thunder managed to score 105+ points and stop Utah below 100 points...
With their backs to the wall, Thunder made huge comeback and now faced with similar situation, can just as easily respond.
Utah was on a sure path to the next round and couldn't hold a late 20+ points lead...
Can be a blowout, but still... value in my eyes is with the Thunder tonight...
Obvious lean for me here is the Thunder...

While was writing, managed to sort out my thoughts:
Cleveland to win, 2.03 odds - 7 units play
Thunder to win, 3.46 odds - 3 units play
Thunder +6.5, 1.93 odds - 3 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
Cleveland got trashed... Never expected that... seriously... shocking...

Oklahoma... in hindsight, should have taken ATS only, but still... feel that the logic behind the play, justified splitting it between ML and ATS...

Still... around 22 units loss so far this postseason :(
 
Boston - Milwaukee

Gut feeling is that Bucks go to the next round. Boston at home (historically Game 7 goes with the home team), better coached and probably more experienced, but Bucks have better (healthy) roster and best player on the field and maybe refs wouldn't mind go with the Bucks...
Still... coach advantage and home court are enough for me not to bet on the Bucks tonight.
As for the total... 10 games so far between the teams this season and the lowest we got till this one, is 199.5 points...
Still... it's hard not to like the Under here, at least in my eyes for several reasons.
1) Historically Game 7 and Under go well together
2) Boston with their limited fire power, shouldn't have any desire to keep the score high. Bucks in Boston, really have no reason to go for a high score, since if Boston opens a lead by double digits, it can be hard to overcome. Both teams should be fine with low scoring.
3) Both teams went to small ball more and more as the series progressed and surprisingly, small ball in this series, actually means lower score. Saw it on some show earlier today that small ball line ups had lower scores in this series so far.
Under 196.5, 1.94 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
First round was terrible for me... hope to get some momentum in second round...
 
Wanted to take Under and Cleveland here, but of course... came to late (though who knows... maybe saved me some money)...
Took small bet live now on Under 200.5 points (26 - 16 in Cleveland's favor at the moment with 2 minutes left in the first quarter).
 
Thoughts on the game (better late than never):
If Cleveland lose here, I wouldn't put a cent on Bron staying in Cleveland...
Just can't see the league or Bron allow Cleveland to lose in the first round...
Bron best player on the floor by far and at home... shouldn't be even close.
Pacers are the surprise of the season and taking Bron to Game 7... earned my respect regardless...
Something is very wrong with Cleveland... their talent is better than the level of game they are playing...
Still... just much better than the Pacers.
If Cleveland will be favorites by 5 points or less, will be on them, but doubt it will happen...
 
Ended up taking Cavs -3.5, them being down 58-59 in the third quarter... hope not to lose by a point or two...
 
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