NFL Upside Justifies Investment in 'First QB Drafted‘ Prop
The NFL draft begins on April 26, 2018. This year’s edition could see more quarterbacks being taken early than last year’s. With the Cleveland Browns drafting first, they’ll likely determine which one gets drafted first. Former Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen looks promising.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen +280
(BOVADA)
Sam Darnold EVEN
Josh Allen +280
Baker Mayfield +350
Josh Rosen +350
If deciding which quarterback will get drafted first were simply a matter of picking the one with the best career statistics, then we would all be billionaires. But NFL scouts aren't interested in rewarding a player because he played well in some college games, they want a quarterback who will succeed in the NFL.
So I am eliminating Mayfield as a possibility because scouts tend to obsess over the 'looks' of a quarterback and Mayfield is too short to have the classic look of an NFL-ready quarterback. His reputation--created by his history of embarrassing on- and off-the-field incidents--can only hurt his draft stock.
So that leaves three candidates: Allen, Darnold and Rosen. I like Darnold more than Rosen.
For starters, Rosen has explicitly said that he does not want to play in Cleveland. But Darnold is willing.
For all of Rosen’s reliability as a passer, he has been more mistake-prone on the road. In 2017, he threw 8 picks on the road, compared to 2 at home. Half of an NFL team's games are on the road. Will Rosen be able to avoid turning the ball over too frequently in those eight games?
Another factor is experience. Teams aren’t looking to draft a player based on how he will perform in one season. They are looking for a long-term solution, one that the Browns are desperate for at quarterback because it is hard to win (the Browns went 0-16 in 2017) when your quarterback only completes 53% of his passes and turns the ball over 28 times. So Rosen is more polished and more likely to succeed than Darnold in 2018. But he has also had more opportunities to become polished because he has thrown 324 more collegiate passes than Darnold. Darnold is really young. He only played two seasons at USC. Acquired veteran Tyrod Taylor would presumably start while Darnold takes the time to develop.
The final factor is the "it“ factor. Teams are not simply looking for solid mechanics and decision-making because those things can be improved. Mechanics and decision-making aren’t inherent qualities like height or speed. Green Bay’s superstar Aaron Rodgers is a classic example of a quarterback who altered his mechanics, now holding his ball much lower in order to generate a smoother arm motion. Another legend Peyton Manning is famous for improving his decision-making in order to throw vastly fewer interceptions. While the Browns can assume that they can polish the young Darnold, they will already have a playmaker who, for instance against UCLA, displayed his ridiculous ability to make throws into tight windows while escaping the pocket. When he does leave the pocket, he is more likely to create a larger gain. This mobility is an important asset to a Cleveland quarterback because the Browns’ pass protection ranked in the bottom-ten last season. It also adds more excitement to a team which sorely lacks playmakers.
Rosen is more NFL-ready, sure, but Darnold possesses more upside. He’s a better long-term investment for the Browns (or any other team).
Finally, I like Allen even more than Darnold because he possesses even more upside. Yes, his statistics look terrible for a potential top pick. But one can easily chalk that up to the poor protection from his offensive linemen, the drops and poor route-running of poor wide receivers--in sum, he was a one-man show. Allen had the strongest combine of the bunch, achieving a 4.75 40 yard dash, showing off his arm strength in the throwing drills and his leg strength in the jumps (legs are important both for running and passing) and his athleticism in the cone drill. More than the other quarterbacks, he looks the part of a successful NFL quarterback with his build and, with his physical tools, acts the part as well. And we get him at an underdog price.
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The NFL draft begins on April 26, 2018. This year’s edition could see more quarterbacks being taken early than last year’s. With the Cleveland Browns drafting first, they’ll likely determine which one gets drafted first. Former Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen looks promising.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen +280
(BOVADA)
Sam Darnold EVEN
Josh Allen +280
Baker Mayfield +350
Josh Rosen +350
If deciding which quarterback will get drafted first were simply a matter of picking the one with the best career statistics, then we would all be billionaires. But NFL scouts aren't interested in rewarding a player because he played well in some college games, they want a quarterback who will succeed in the NFL.
So I am eliminating Mayfield as a possibility because scouts tend to obsess over the 'looks' of a quarterback and Mayfield is too short to have the classic look of an NFL-ready quarterback. His reputation--created by his history of embarrassing on- and off-the-field incidents--can only hurt his draft stock.
So that leaves three candidates: Allen, Darnold and Rosen. I like Darnold more than Rosen.
For starters, Rosen has explicitly said that he does not want to play in Cleveland. But Darnold is willing.
For all of Rosen’s reliability as a passer, he has been more mistake-prone on the road. In 2017, he threw 8 picks on the road, compared to 2 at home. Half of an NFL team's games are on the road. Will Rosen be able to avoid turning the ball over too frequently in those eight games?
Another factor is experience. Teams aren’t looking to draft a player based on how he will perform in one season. They are looking for a long-term solution, one that the Browns are desperate for at quarterback because it is hard to win (the Browns went 0-16 in 2017) when your quarterback only completes 53% of his passes and turns the ball over 28 times. So Rosen is more polished and more likely to succeed than Darnold in 2018. But he has also had more opportunities to become polished because he has thrown 324 more collegiate passes than Darnold. Darnold is really young. He only played two seasons at USC. Acquired veteran Tyrod Taylor would presumably start while Darnold takes the time to develop.
The final factor is the "it“ factor. Teams are not simply looking for solid mechanics and decision-making because those things can be improved. Mechanics and decision-making aren’t inherent qualities like height or speed. Green Bay’s superstar Aaron Rodgers is a classic example of a quarterback who altered his mechanics, now holding his ball much lower in order to generate a smoother arm motion. Another legend Peyton Manning is famous for improving his decision-making in order to throw vastly fewer interceptions. While the Browns can assume that they can polish the young Darnold, they will already have a playmaker who, for instance against UCLA, displayed his ridiculous ability to make throws into tight windows while escaping the pocket. When he does leave the pocket, he is more likely to create a larger gain. This mobility is an important asset to a Cleveland quarterback because the Browns’ pass protection ranked in the bottom-ten last season. It also adds more excitement to a team which sorely lacks playmakers.
Rosen is more NFL-ready, sure, but Darnold possesses more upside. He’s a better long-term investment for the Browns (or any other team).
Finally, I like Allen even more than Darnold because he possesses even more upside. Yes, his statistics look terrible for a potential top pick. But one can easily chalk that up to the poor protection from his offensive linemen, the drops and poor route-running of poor wide receivers--in sum, he was a one-man show. Allen had the strongest combine of the bunch, achieving a 4.75 40 yard dash, showing off his arm strength in the throwing drills and his leg strength in the jumps (legs are important both for running and passing) and his athleticism in the cone drill. More than the other quarterbacks, he looks the part of a successful NFL quarterback with his build and, with his physical tools, acts the part as well. And we get him at an underdog price.
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Gotta go with my man!
