Hello all...first time poster looking for leans/thoughts on tonights Nevada/NMSU game. Personally I'm leaning towards the Wolfpack -6.5 and the over, but with 85% of the betting public already on Nevada I'm a little hesitant to pull the trigger. Any insight apprectiated. Here's to hoping that I can become a more involved poster here on the board. GL to all tonight and this weekend.
First post...looking for leans in Nevada/NMSU
- Thread starter brohead
- Start date
12 Pounder
Pretty much a regular
I have Nev at 5-. But with that much public on it and it went down from 7 to 6- It makes me a little nervous. Gltu
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Offense adv - Nevada by a good size margin since Holbrook is banged up and Williams is out.
Defense adv - Nevada by a decent amount since they defend the pass pretty well and NMST won't/can't/doesn't play good defense
NMST is 4-0 at home, no significant victories
Nevada is 1-3 on the road, no significant victories
Nevada is certainly more talented and I believe they have a lot more team speed.
If Nevada doesn't get stupid and turn the ball over when they are deep in NMST territory, they should handle NMST.
BTW, Your avatar SUCKS
:smiley_acbe:
Defense adv - Nevada by a decent amount since they defend the pass pretty well and NMST won't/can't/doesn't play good defense
NMST is 4-0 at home, no significant victories
Nevada is 1-3 on the road, no significant victories
Nevada is certainly more talented and I believe they have a lot more team speed.
If Nevada doesn't get stupid and turn the ball over when they are deep in NMST territory, they should handle NMST.
BTW, Your avatar SUCKS
:smiley_acbe:
M.R. Goode
Ohio St. deserves no BCS talk
Conference home dogs are gold!!! But this one is too scary. Look elsewhere!
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
Line movement off 7 was solely due to Chase Holbrook being able to play tonight.
I'm on Nevada tonight. Their offense is signifcantly better, and their defense, while not top notch is still better. NMSU is not a very good football team (They were outgained by over 500 yards vs BSU). Since their opener at Nebraska, Nevada has outgained each of their opponents (including @BSU). Nevada should be able to move the ball and put points up, and I hardly expect NMSU to keep up. New Mexico is undefeated at home, but these wins have been against - Idaho, ArkPB, SELA, and UTEP. Just an FYI in the UTEP game Chris Williams had 221 yards receiving and 2 TD's. Chris Williams is also out for the year.
Just my thoughts. G'luck
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
I wouldnt trust the 85%. If they were being bet by 85%, the line would have went up by at least 4 points this week. It is being bet closer to 65%, but even that may be a little inflated.
GL with who ever you play. :shake:
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Welcome to the site, good luck toinght
Thanks for all the thoughts guys. I'll probably walk away from this one tonight. I keep waffling in regards to my play which is never a good sign. Any value in Temple +9 tonight at Ohio?
ETG...I'll be on your boys this weekend at +5.5. I think the offense finally woke up in the 2nd half of the UT game, and I'm assuming Mitchell will make the start. That Arky backfield is lethal, but without Monk the Razorbacks have been terribley one dimensional. In fact that one dimensional offense down in Fayetteville would make the 2006 Will Proctor led offense quite proud
For those looking for opinions regarding Clemson fire away. My advice would be to stay away from a Clemson cover in Durham. Since 1999 (the year Bowden took over) the Tigers have been double digit ACC road favorites on 14 occassions. They have covered in only 2 of those. I like the Tigers by 14.
Again, GL on everyone's plays this weekend
ETG...I'll be on your boys this weekend at +5.5. I think the offense finally woke up in the 2nd half of the UT game, and I'm assuming Mitchell will make the start. That Arky backfield is lethal, but without Monk the Razorbacks have been terribley one dimensional. In fact that one dimensional offense down in Fayetteville would make the 2006 Will Proctor led offense quite proud
For those looking for opinions regarding Clemson fire away. My advice would be to stay away from a Clemson cover in Durham. Since 1999 (the year Bowden took over) the Tigers have been double digit ACC road favorites on 14 occassions. They have covered in only 2 of those. I like the Tigers by 14.
Again, GL on everyone's plays this weekend
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Thanks for all the thoughts guys. I'll probably walk away from this one tonight. I keep waffling in regards to my play which is never a good sign. Any value in Temple +9 tonight at Ohio?
ETG...I'll be on your boys this weekend at +5.5. I think the offense finally woke up in the 2nd half of the UT game, and I'm assuming Mitchell will make the start. That Arky backfield is lethal, but without Monk the Razorbacks have been terribley one dimensional. In fact that one dimensional offense down in Fayetteville would make the 2006 Will Proctor led offense quite proud
For those looking for opinions regarding Clemson fire away. My advice would be to stay away from a Clemson cover in Durham. Since 1999 (the year Bowden took over) the Tigers have been double digit ACC road favorites on 14 occassions. They have covered in only 2 of those. I like the Tigers by 14.
Again, GL on everyone's plays this weekend
:smiley_acbe:
HAHA
Monk is playing but he can't be 100%, prob close but not fully recovered yet. GL if you play US and I can't wait until the Orange have to travel into Columbia, its nearing..
ETG...what are your thoughts on your matchup this weekend? I rarely bet on Clemson, as there is just too much emotional attachment there to sometimes play what I'm really feeling. I played the CMU game, but that was situational based on the 2 game skid, bye week, and mid-major. I knew the Tigers had either packed it in for the season or would cover with ease. Of course it was only a 1 unit bet
As for the matchup up in Columbia. It's really hard for me to gauge my thoughts at this point. Prior to your game in Chapel Hill, I would have probably expected about a 10-14 point Clemson loss. The UNC, Vandy, and UT games combined with Clemson winning easily last weekend against a venue/coach that they have traditionally struggled with gives me some hope that this could still be a game. The loss of Jacoby Ford really stings coming down the stretch run. I think the key will be the Tigers showing in their last two home conference games vs. Wake and BC. A loss in either one of those eliminates them from the Atlantic Divsion Title discussion and may result in the team packing it in for the remainder of the season. I still expect the Gamecocks to win, however I think it's much closer than I originally anticipated. Again, BOL to you and everyone else this weekend. It's time to get paid!
:cheers:
As for the matchup up in Columbia. It's really hard for me to gauge my thoughts at this point. Prior to your game in Chapel Hill, I would have probably expected about a 10-14 point Clemson loss. The UNC, Vandy, and UT games combined with Clemson winning easily last weekend against a venue/coach that they have traditionally struggled with gives me some hope that this could still be a game. The loss of Jacoby Ford really stings coming down the stretch run. I think the key will be the Tigers showing in their last two home conference games vs. Wake and BC. A loss in either one of those eliminates them from the Atlantic Divsion Title discussion and may result in the team packing it in for the remainder of the season. I still expect the Gamecocks to win, however I think it's much closer than I originally anticipated. Again, BOL to you and everyone else this weekend. It's time to get paid!
:cheers:
richardtonsj
Pretty much a regular
Just take Nevada 1st half if you're so concerned with the line movement issue. They will come out and dominated from the start with their running game.
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
Welcome to the site. I lean Nevada but the numbers are right-on IMO. Good luck tonight :cheers:
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
I'm on Nevada -6.5, and here's why...
1. Nevada has a clear edge in coaching, as Ault is already in the HOF. Seriously...would you want Hal Mumme, or Chris Ault? Not to mention, Ault and his squad have owned the Aggies the past two seasons (before '05, the last year these two teams played was '99). The average margin of victory for Nevada the past two years has been 26 points.
2. Colin Kaepernick is quietly having a terrific season for the Wolfpack since stepping in for Graziano. Kaepernick has thrown 10 TDs and only 1 INT in the past six games. Granted, the stats are skewed a bit by the crazy, multiple OT game against Boise State, but only one INT is quite impressive. On the Aggies side, Holbrook is still a little banged up, but even more importantly, he no longer has Chris Williams to throw the ball to. Of Holbrook's 18 TD passes this season, 11 of them were to Williams, who is out indefinitely. This is a DEVASTATING blow to the New Mexico State passing game, and offense in general.
3. Clearly, Nevada's weakness is their rush defense, as they're giving up an average of over 200 yards/game on the ground. Fortunately, NM State is just awful at running the ball, averaging less than 100 yards/game on the ground. Nevada has faced some good rushing attacks thus far, and I see them having little trouble stopping the Aggie ground game. Nevada's pass defense has been solid all season, which should add more pressure to a nicked up Holbrook who's missing his favorite target. NM State cannot stop the run or the pass, so Nevada should have no trouble scoring tonight.
My prediction...
Nevada 41
NM State 21
:cheers:
1. Nevada has a clear edge in coaching, as Ault is already in the HOF. Seriously...would you want Hal Mumme, or Chris Ault? Not to mention, Ault and his squad have owned the Aggies the past two seasons (before '05, the last year these two teams played was '99). The average margin of victory for Nevada the past two years has been 26 points.
2. Colin Kaepernick is quietly having a terrific season for the Wolfpack since stepping in for Graziano. Kaepernick has thrown 10 TDs and only 1 INT in the past six games. Granted, the stats are skewed a bit by the crazy, multiple OT game against Boise State, but only one INT is quite impressive. On the Aggies side, Holbrook is still a little banged up, but even more importantly, he no longer has Chris Williams to throw the ball to. Of Holbrook's 18 TD passes this season, 11 of them were to Williams, who is out indefinitely. This is a DEVASTATING blow to the New Mexico State passing game, and offense in general.
3. Clearly, Nevada's weakness is their rush defense, as they're giving up an average of over 200 yards/game on the ground. Fortunately, NM State is just awful at running the ball, averaging less than 100 yards/game on the ground. Nevada has faced some good rushing attacks thus far, and I see them having little trouble stopping the Aggie ground game. Nevada's pass defense has been solid all season, which should add more pressure to a nicked up Holbrook who's missing his favorite target. NM State cannot stop the run or the pass, so Nevada should have no trouble scoring tonight.
My prediction...
Nevada 41
NM State 21
:cheers:
