First Inning Scoring Bets
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Scatman Duse
Well-Known Member
These are probably my favorite wagers. I like them alot because alot of money can be made in a short period of time.
I have had mixed success with these wagers, but my most successful method is to make 3 parlay wagers each with two games each. In order to break even or even see a little bit of profit you must get one of three right each day.
I have had mixed success with these wagers, but my most successful method is to make 3 parlay wagers each with two games each. In order to break even or even see a little bit of profit you must get one of three right each day.
I like teams that scored a couple of runs in the 9th inning the previous game. Sort of have the rally carry over...like Yanks rallying vs Todd Jones I played the 1st inning score today and they did.....
Really no strategies IMO more a pitcher to pitcher thing coupled with how teams are hitting...
Really no strategies IMO more a pitcher to pitcher thing coupled with how teams are hitting...
SteelBucsFan
Chicken Thief
play the NL TEAMS ...I have been tracking all NL teams , philly , ariz, hou. are good bets ...Pirates and Giants are not ..
No score in Philly game today vs. Giants ..That makes 4 scoreless in a row for the phills , longest streak of season for them.
Longest 1 st. inning scoreless streak this season, FOR TEAM /OPPONENT is 7 games by the Brewers earlier in the season and the giants are at 7 scoreless right now...
Will be on the giants and phills this week...
Not sure what book you use but Diamond , has pretty reasonable lines on these props, compared to the greek ..
Longest scoreless streak in NL , FOR TEAM AND OPPONENT is 10 games little over 2 seasons ago
No score in Philly game today vs. Giants ..That makes 4 scoreless in a row for the phills , longest streak of season for them.
Longest 1 st. inning scoreless streak this season, FOR TEAM /OPPONENT is 7 games by the Brewers earlier in the season and the giants are at 7 scoreless right now...
Will be on the giants and phills this week...
Not sure what book you use but Diamond , has pretty reasonable lines on these props, compared to the greek ..
Longest scoreless streak in NL , FOR TEAM AND OPPONENT is 10 games little over 2 seasons ago
and Oak rallied in the 9th yesterday and put up 4 in the 1st today...:shake:
SteelBucsFan
Chicken Thief
Will keep an eye on that angle, Sportsnut.
Cant say its anything other then something I noticed last season and have since used. So nothing then an observation but used in both games I mentioned this weekend and it hit..Also though you have to really be strict in what you call a rally...I dont see someone hitting a 2 run Hr as a rally...looking more for a team who almost blew a game due to a long half inning ...couple hits , couple baserunners and couple runs...:shake:
JPicks
Pretty much a regular
counselor
President of Fondy Fanclub
O.K. Good stuff fellas. I want to follow up with a couple things...
First, I'm prone to betting "no" because IMHO it is difficult to score runs in MLB, and the pitcher has a slight edge early in the ballgame.
I proffered this opinion to Rexy, and he said that although I may be correct sometimes, he correctly pointed out that pitchers will struggle early and get into a groove later.
As an example, I think of Brad Radke a few years ago. I don't know how many games in a row or what the percentage was, but he was good for a run in the 1st, and then settling down to give you a strong 6 or 7. So, point taken...
Even more interesting (at least to me) is another thought this Rex fella had that when the weather warms the ball will start to fly a little more, and I'll struggle with my "NO" bets...I can definately see where weather could be a huge factor in, say, Chicago, if the wind is blowing in/out; or in April in Minnesota when the new stadium opens up.
He also points out that it is difficult to pick spots and you can get hosed pretty easily depending a team's strategy early in a game (infield back with 1 out with a man on 3rd, etc.)...
Has anyone ever seen any research about the amount of plays that hit at "yes" or "no" in correlation to the game's posted total (i.e., a game posted 8.5 or under hits at a rate of 60% "No")?
Curious. Again, good stuff...
First, I'm prone to betting "no" because IMHO it is difficult to score runs in MLB, and the pitcher has a slight edge early in the ballgame.
I proffered this opinion to Rexy, and he said that although I may be correct sometimes, he correctly pointed out that pitchers will struggle early and get into a groove later.
As an example, I think of Brad Radke a few years ago. I don't know how many games in a row or what the percentage was, but he was good for a run in the 1st, and then settling down to give you a strong 6 or 7. So, point taken...
Even more interesting (at least to me) is another thought this Rex fella had that when the weather warms the ball will start to fly a little more, and I'll struggle with my "NO" bets...I can definately see where weather could be a huge factor in, say, Chicago, if the wind is blowing in/out; or in April in Minnesota when the new stadium opens up.
He also points out that it is difficult to pick spots and you can get hosed pretty easily depending a team's strategy early in a game (infield back with 1 out with a man on 3rd, etc.)...
Has anyone ever seen any research about the amount of plays that hit at "yes" or "no" in correlation to the game's posted total (i.e., a game posted 8.5 or under hits at a rate of 60% "No")?
Curious. Again, good stuff...
- The pitcher has the early advantage ? Well that depends since the old saying with the "Ace" type SP is that if you dont get to them early then you will be in for along day . Simply meaning you probably want to hit against a quality SP early in the game before he finds his groove and rythymn(sp??). So not sure the pitcher has the edge its just as much as "feeling out" process for them as the hitter ...
- The weather part I would agree with since the NO bet probably works best in mid to late April. Once the pitchers are a couple starts and deep and then weather is still crappy . Would guess last week was a great week for this play.... and once the weather warms up some the ball will carry better but I also know that every pitcher will bemuch happier to pitch in 80 and 90 degree weather then 50's...
- I dont think you will see strategy play much into the 1st inning of a game. We are in an offensive ERA and I think just about everytime managers and teams will concede runs . So I dont think you'll get burned by not bringing the INF or something of that nature well because its not even a strategy really anymore .Maybe the rare NL game at say Petco when Webb is dueling Peavy...
-I definetly agree its a real guessing game . Then again what part of gambling isnt a hopefully educated guess.
-It would be interesting to see the research on the Yes-No factor correlated to totals but I would say does it really matter? The vig is adjusted based on total so isnt that some sort of indicator in probability? You pay more since its likely it will not happen. So the key is and its more exhausting research just finding guys who typical come out of the bullpen and arent sharp to start a game. There are guys known to have 1st inning struggles then settle down and it can also develop in season. Say if you see a guy give up 1st inn runs in consecutive starts then maybe worth a shot in that 3rd start that he does again..or for the next few starts...
I am just talking outloud to your comments....so take it FWIW..
:shake:
SteelBucsFan
Chicken Thief
i play "Yes" for NL teams on these props ... I should of said that in my post above...DUH
Also won again today with Boston 1st inn score YES after there late rally on Sunday night...:shake:
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
interesting angle Nutman, I will look for that soon...
...and counselor, they always say (at least the aged broadcasters) that in the old game everyone would try to get to the opposing team early with runs because you couldn't later in the game, but now i see it completely different as mentioned in this thread. As pitchers get more and more tired, that's when they give up runs, which is NOT the first inning. It's a ballzy play, but it seems almost 50-50 when i pay attention, which certainly is not every day.
...and counselor, they always say (at least the aged broadcasters) that in the old game everyone would try to get to the opposing team early with runs because you couldn't later in the game, but now i see it completely different as mentioned in this thread. As pitchers get more and more tired, that's when they give up runs, which is NOT the first inning. It's a ballzy play, but it seems almost 50-50 when i pay attention, which certainly is not every day.
Capt. Slap
1st year apprentice of Sammy
You could blindly bet YES in every game and make $ at the end of the year
Public loves NO
Public loves NO
nawlins51
I bet Basketball
Here is some stats I found from a sabermetric guy along with an article a couple months ago.Remember this is a couple months ago but the stat does hold true.
I Split G PA AB R H
1st inning 2066 8944 7992 1148 2127
2nd inning 2066 8791 7810 944 2007
3rd inning 2066 8963 7926 1114 2093
4th inning 2066 8932 8010 1079 2182
5th inning 2066 8931 7950 1119 2106
6th inning 2066 8989 7998 1104 2182
7th inning 2066 9007 7949 1072 2067
8th inning 2066 8893 7808 958 1905
9th inning 1574 6499 5799 640 1356
Here is the little article he wrote:
Usually the 1st inning is the inning where the most runs are scored, which makes sense because it is the only inning where teams get to choose who bats. The 2nd inning usually has the least amount of runs scored because teams usually stack their lineups for a productive first inning, and then they often sag in the 2nd inning. What has been pointed out before, and what is interesting, is that often the average between the first and second inning is less than the average for the rest of the innings, so managers make that gamble of trying to get a strong first inning, making the 2nd inning naturally weaker, and lose the deal.
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