FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview Article (2x)

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FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: FireKeepers Casino 400
Sunday, August 22, 2021 at 3 p.m. ET at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, Michigan

Race Info

NASCAR's Cup Series continues this Sunday with the FireKeepers Casino 400.

For this racing event, drivers must complete a total of 200 laps.

As has been the case in almost every NASCAR Cup Series race this season, there will be a total of three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires 60 laps. Stage 2 ends with the completion of lap 120. The final 80 laps belong to Stage 3.

As in previous weeks, an entry list has been published so that everybody knows who will participate in this event barring any unforeseen circumstances. 37 drivers/teams are listed.

Since this is a familiar track for NASCAR Cup Series competitors, there will be neither qualifying nor practice for this race.

With no qualifying round taking place, a predetermined formula will determine which driver will start in what position.

Typically, the starting lineup gets released on Wednesday morning.

Track Info

After an unusually high number of road courses, drivers return to a track.

Michigan's track is unique in a fun way in that it is the fastest one in the NASCAR Cup Series circuit.

One feature that allows it to be fast is its long straightaways. When a straightaway is long, drivers can build up more speed without having to press the brake pedal in order to navigate a turn while handling the car properly.

Moreover, the corners are wide, such that drivers can speed through them with less hindrance from competitive traffic.

Michigan's international speedway also benefits from a nice level of banking, which allows drivers to accumulate more speed especially as they round the corners.

On this track, the turns are banked at 18 degrees each, the start and finish at a positively high 12 degrees, and the backstretch at five degrees.

Compared to other NASCAR Cup Series tracks, the level of banking on the front- and backstretch is worth highlighting as uniquely high.

As you might expect from my description of the track, each lap is two miles long.

So in completing 200 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.

Drivers To Avoid

Be sure to avoid investing in Alex Bowman at all costs.

One might say that this point is trivially true -- Alex Bowman isn't exactly the first guy you think of to win a race.

But he is worth fading in match-up betting opportunities because Michigan's course is one of his worst in terms of average finishing position.

His average finishing position in Michigan is 25.45, more than five spots worse than his average starting position.

He's never finished better than 10th at this course and he's finished 30th or worse in five of 11 career races here.

A lot of big upsets have happened this season. But this is a course where the more household names perform more strongly.

Two of the more well-known drivers who have recently been on the short end of the stick in Michigan are Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski, both of whom pale in comparison to guys like Kevin Harvick in terms of recent finishing positions at this track.

My Guy

I like Kyle Larson. Larson ranks number one this season because he's been exceptionally fast.

At a fast course, I carry the most faith in the fastest guy.

Larson ranked third last year and will perform better this year since he is performing more and most strongly this season.

He won again two weeks ago and he is the top candidate to win again on Sunday.

Best Bet: Kyle Larson To Win (Odds TBA)
 
FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: FireKeepers Casino 400
Sunday, August 22, 2021 at 3 p.m. ET at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, Michigan

Race Info

The FireKeepers Casino 400 continues this upcoming Sunday as the next racing event in the NASCAR Cup Series.

For this racing event, drivers must complete a total of 200 laps.

As has been the norm all season, despite a couple of exceptions, there will be a total of three stages for this race.

Stage 1 requires 60 laps. Stage 2 likewise consists in 60 laps. Stage 3 requires drivers to complete 80 more laps.

As in previous weeks, an entry list has been published. 37 drivers/teams are listed and these are the drivers/teams that will compete in this race, barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Since this is a historically well-known track for active NASCAR Cup Series competitors, there will be neither qualifying nor practice for this race.

Without any qualifying round taking place, a predetermined formula will establish the order in Sunday's starting lineup.

Conventionally, the starting lineup gets released every Wednesday morning.

Track Info

While NASCAR fans think of fast tracks, their minds automatically rush to the historically most well-known racing events at Daytona and Talladega.

But actually, Michigan's track is known for being the fastest one that the NASCAR Cup Series currently has to offer on its circuit.

Several different features and dimensions of this track help explain why drivers are able to reach such high speeds on it.

For starters, Michigan's international speedway boasts wide corners.

Tighter corners can present traffic-related issues because drivers have to slow down a bit in order to maintain control over their cars as they try to rush around the corners. This reduction in speed allows other drivers to catch up while others remain on the turn, which gradually gains in congestion.

When the corners are wide, drivers can navigate them with more room and therefore with less deterrence from other drivers.

Michigan's international speedway also benefits from a nice level of banking, especially on the turns.

Higher banking -- on turns or on other parts of the track -- encourages drivers to collect more speed especially as they proceed on the higher-banked corners.

At Michigan's track, each turn is banked at 18 degrees.

Moreover, the start/finish is banked at an extraordinarily high 12 degrees. The backstretch is also banked at a very high five degrees.

Another feature that allows Michigan's speedway to earn its reputation as a uniquely fast course is its long straightaways.

Drivers are able to build up more speed on long straightaways on which they do not have to press the brake pedal as they do in order to navigate a turn while still properly handling their car.

We've already experienced plenty of other NASCAR Cup Series tracks.

Already the level of banking on the front- and backstretch is worth highlighting for being uniquely high.

On this track, each lap lasts two miles.

So in completing 200 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.

Drivers To Avoid

Be sure to avoid investing in Alex Bowman at all costs.

It is probably true that you weren't going to consider him to win this race, anyways, because he is for good reason not such a household name in NASCAR.

But be sure to look out for him in the available match-up betting options, when they surface .

He is definitely worth fading because, as measured by average finishing position, the Michigan International Speedway is his 24th worst out of 30 racing tracks in which he's competed for NASCAR.

At Michigan, his average finishing position is 25.45, which is over five spots worse than his average starting position. This disparity means that he continually finishes well worse than where he starts, a trend that is worth keeping in mind when you see in which position he starts.

In his career, he's never finished better than 10th at this track.]

He has, however, finished 30th or worse in five of 11 career races here.

Two of the more well-known drivers who in Michigan have recently fared meaningfully worse than other well-known drivers are Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski.

Both of these guys pale in comparison to drivers like Kevin Harvick in terms of what position they've recently finished in at this track.

My Guy

I like Kyle Larson the most. Larson ranks atop the standings right now because he's been exceptionally fast really throughout this entire season.

I believe it makes the most sense to invest in the fastest guy at a fast course.

At this track, Larson finished third last year. He'll perform better here this year as a consequence of his overall superiority this season relative to other drivers and relative to himself in previous years.

Two weeks ago, he won yet another race this season. One should view him as the top candidate to win on Sunday.

For the above reasons, rely on Kyle Larson.

Best Bet: Kyle Larson To Win (Odds TBA)
 
I like Dillon, Reddick, DiBenedetto, and Blaney to overperform today.

Dillon -135 over Chastain (extra-large)
Reddick +105 over Kurt Busch (medium)
Blaney +110 over Harvick (medium) You have to ignore Harvick's past history at Mich to make this bet.
DiBenedetto-135 over Almirola (medium)

Reddick Top 10 +150 (large)
Blaney Top 10 -120 (medium)
Dillon Top 10 +250 (medium)

Larson will probably win but anything can happen so an extremely small bet on Reddick +4000 to win
 
What are you considering for today's race?
I played a small ticket on Kyle Busch +700. He's done well on the 550 HP this year.

But make no mistake, this is Larsons to lose. Already won here 3 times and a 3rd with his inferior equipment.

I like some of your matchups though. I actually like Bubba -130 over Stenhouse but didn't play it.
 
I like Dillon, Reddick, DiBenedetto, and Blaney to overperform today.

Dillon -135 over Chastain (extra-large)
Reddick +105 over Kurt Busch (medium)
Blaney +110 over Harvick (medium) You have to ignore Harvick's past history at Mich to make this bet.
DiBenedetto-135 over Almirola (medium)

Reddick Top 10 +150 (large)
Blaney Top 10 -120 (medium)
Dillon Top 10 +250 (medium)

Larson will probably win but anything can happen so an extremely small bet on Reddick +4000 to win
I know it does not take much to move these lines, but Blaney went to +130 over Harvick (I bet him @ +110) and now he has been bet down to -112. Weird movement.
 
Well, that sucks with Dillon. Unless Chastain comes back from the garage, I will get lucky and win my Dillon over Chastain bet. I will lose Dillon Top 10 though and Reddick over Kurt Busch does not look like a good bet.
 
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Of course, Chastain comes back on the track and will finish one spot ahead of Dillon. Reddick was involved in a wreck, which was his fault, making it harder for him to get a top 10. Bad luck two weeks in a row.
 
Another losing day, despite betting on the winner, a top 5 car in Dillon, and the guy that finished 6th. Bad luck 2 weeks in a row.
 
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